Lock Watch for the Week of 12/17/2018
FOMC statement and virtual certainty of another rate hike (.25%). This will not surprise anyone, but against the backdrop of recent market volatility, the ensuing statement could. Then, GDP on Friday.
Economicalendar (all times are Pacific):
Mon, 12/17: Empire State Mfg Survey (5:30am), Housing Market Index (7am).
Tues, 12/18: Housing Starts (5:30am).
Weds, 12/19: Existing Home Sales (7am) and FOMC Meeting (11am).
Thurs, 12/20: Jobless Claims and Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey (5:30am).
Fri, 12/21: Durable Goods and GDP (5:30am). Personal Income and Outlays and Consumer Sentiment (7am).
10-Year Treasury History
2.87% Today's Open
2.86% One Week Ago
3.08% One Month Ago
2.39% One Year Ago
I am not a surfer. I have never ridden a wave on surfboard, but I do live in Northern California and I have swum in the coastal waters enough to know that even in summer, the ocean can be rough, dark and cold. So my fascination with the lore of the Mavericks surf break and competition blossoms from a deep respect for those brave enough to stare down the monsters that rumble ashore each winter when the conditions are just right.
As I write this, the surf contest has been called off until later in the week. The reason? It's too crazy and too big out there right now, and will be through Monday. Yet the select group of big wave surfers who are on call to get towed in think that the 2018/2019 version could happen any day, and that means that the underwater ramp off Pillar Point, the winter storm sets and maybe even the wind will all conspire to push swells off Mavericks to 60+ feet in height.
I plan to pull my kid out of school one of these winter days and drive down there to witness the event, whenever it happens. Until that elusive day, anybody who wants to understand Mavericks has to appreciate that back in 1975, an intrepid 17-year old named Jeff Clark decided one day and after much observation of the offshore break that it was time to leave his high school buddies ashore and paddle out solo to see if big wave riding existed in California. Jeff continued to surf the break, alone, until 1990, when word began to get out to the rest of the surf world.
They say if you're going to watch Mavericks from the shore it is best to bring binoculars. That makes sense. The immensity of it is way out there.
Eddy would go,
Robert J. Spinosa
Vice President of Mortgage Lending
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