Bold Predictions for Real Estate 2019

Real Estate Agent with Big Block Realty 858.232.8722 CA BRE# 01261476

Bold Predictions for Real Estate in 2019:

The National Market and Our Local San Diego, CA Market


Doom & Gloom? No! The market is looking great and stable! More inventory is coming, prices are stabilizing, and rates are still incredibly low. Good time to buy and sellers can still get a good price as the market is still moving relatively quickly nationally; the economy is strong and unemployment is low.


Prices and units sold are going to about the same (flat) locally in San Diego as 2018 and see a slight increase nationally. San Diego’s price point is higher than the national average to begin with; The National Association of Realtors (NAR) forecasts a 1-3% increase in prices nationally.

So, with about the same amount of transactions in 2019 as 2018, slightly higher rates and a strong economy, high consumer confidence and 7.5 million unfulfilled jobs = historically low unemployment. Those that want to work, can. 2019 is looking promising for real estate. In San Diego, Ca I see a buyer’s market forming. Rates will increase in 2019 (but a still very low avg. 5% will become the new normal). In 1989 I was paying about 12% and in 2007 I was paying 7%, so 5% is still quite awesome!


Locally, I’m seeing sellers struggle with nostalgic pricing and castle-syndrome. They think their home is the best on the block and want Q1 2018 listing prices for their Q1 2019 property. While pricing is not dropping, over pricing is, because bidding wars are giving way to discerning, patient buyers.


Discount brokerages fly by night agents and tech companies will begin to struggle and house flippers will begin to decrease. When market times begin to increase from 3 days to 30-60 days (essentially, they’ll approximately double from 2018 days on market stats, the skilled agent is seen as more valuable. (They always were valuable, but the public gets blinded by the speed of the market and tends to de-value full-service/full-fee agents when perception is skewed by short days on market times; I’ve seen this trend three times now in my career, since 1999).

FSBO Market is lowest in history! Down from an average of 9% historically to 7% (actual 3.5%) of the market sales. For Sale By Owners are at a historical low in an age when there is more technology than ever before; why? Because selling your home is more complicated than ever and a true professional is needed to properly price, market and negotiate your deal and then keep it together (problem solving skills) long enough to close your deal!





I’m excited for first time buyers, still excited for properly priced sellers and for my profession, the working by referral REALTOR in 2019. This is the type of market that removes the dross from the gold and reveals the value. This is the type of market (2019) that reveals the professionals and discards the amateurs. The summer soldiers departas they lack skills and experience, and the winter patriots do what they’ve always done through multiple markets; professionally serve home sellers and buyers with excellence and the experience of a consummate professional.


You have a choice! You can brew your own coffee, or buy coffee at a gas station, Starbucks, Philz or Duncan Doughnuts. You can spend $1.50-$6.00 for a same size cup of coffee. So what’s the difference and why do some pay more than others? Service, the buying experience and quality (where the beans are sourced from and how they are brewed). 10% always pay the highest price because they feel it represents quality. 10% always pay the least, it’s all about price for them. 80% buy value; show them the value, they’ll buy it. No value, no sale.


Oh by the way, I’m never too busy to serve you and your referrals! Whether it’s simple advice, referrals to the many professionals & trades people I work with weekly or my own buyer, seller (and divorcing home owner services) & investor services. Remember I offer military discounts and serving our Active Duty Military and Veterans is the cornerstone of my real estate business.


REALTORS: Listen Here to MORE Bold Predictions about Our Industry for 2019

link to  Brian Buffini Show Episode #131 December 4, 2018


Information sources: Buffini & Company, NAR and Thomas J. Nelson

Image 1. courtesy of ankris at

All other Images courtesy of Buffini & Company


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Kristal Wilson
KB Home - Fontana, CA
Cause We Like 'Em New ~ New Home Specialist!

Thomas J. Nelson ~ Each market is different and I agree with your assessment. It is the Agents job to help educate the buyer, or seller, explaining the reality of the current market and assisting them to make informed decisions. Here’s to 2019!

Jan 04, 2019 08:57 AM #1
Mike Baltierra
Rise Realty - Eastvale, CA
Full Service at Your Service Realtor-Eastvale CA

Great report and so much to look forward to in 2019. Of course they're house is the best even though they haven't see the other ones. 

Jan 04, 2019 09:02 AM #2
Ron and Alexandra Seigel
Napa Consultants - Carpinteria, CA
Luxury Real Estate Branding, Marketing & Strategy


May all yourpredictions come true, and may you continue to prosper in 2019.  We have always believed that regardless of any economic condition, all you have to do is be in the right place at the right time...A

Jan 04, 2019 09:05 AM #3
Marte Cliff
Marte Cliff Copywriting - Priest River, ID
Your real estate writer

I love your predictions, and this quote in particular: "This is the type of market (2019) that reveals the professionals and discards the amateurs."

Can't agree about the coffee though - I think what I brew at home tastes far better than any I've ever bought elsewhere. I cannot understand why people flock to Starbucks - I think it's awful!

Good thing we don't all want the same things, isn't it?

Jan 04, 2019 09:31 PM #4
Steffy Hristova
HomeSmart Elite Group Tempe AZ Tel: 480-966-9353 - Tempe, AZ
Tempe AZ Realtor - Your Home Close to Your Work!

Thomas, thanks for sharing your thoughts about the San Diego market, and the year ahead. It is an enjoyable read.

Jan 05, 2019 07:35 AM #5
Jan Green
Value Added Service, 602-620-2699 - Scottsdale, AZ
HomeSmart Elite Group, REALTOR®, EcoBroker, GREEN

Excellent post!  It's so smart to share what we know for others to realize it is STILL a good time to buy a home.  And they better, interest rates are still very low.  We saw the same number of sales in 2018 as 2017, almost identical.  Onward to a great 2019!

Jan 05, 2019 09:39 AM #6
Jeff Dowler, CRS
eXp Realty of California - Carlsbad, CA
The Southern California Relocation Dude

Well said, Thomas. I agree with so much of what you said. It is definitely a time of more change, but that's OK. With the right Realtors to guide them buyers and sellers will do just fine as long as they do not hold on to misleading preconceptions or focus on what the media is saying!


Jan 06, 2019 08:21 PM #7
Mary Hutchison, SRES, ABR
Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate-Kansas City Homes - Kansas City, MO
Experienced Agent in Kansas City Metro area

I've not heard the term castle syndrome but I totally get it and have experienced it with sellers!

Jan 07, 2019 09:57 AM #8
John Dotson
Preferred Properties of Highlands, Inc. - Highlands, NC - Highlands, NC
The experience to get you to the other side!

Looking forward to a better year in 2019.

Folks need to have more confidence in the economy.  Nostalgic pricing is a perennial problem in our market and flippers and cut-rate folks haven't been seen in years!  YAY

Jan 10, 2019 06:56 PM #9
Sally Crane
WMS - Unity, WI
Woodland appraisal support.

Thanks for the update, all the best to you as you get many of these properties sold.

Jan 11, 2019 02:46 AM #14
Patricia Feager, MBA, CRS, GRI,MRP
Selling Homes Changing Lives

Thomas - I hope you participate in Debe Maxwell, CRS September Challenge - The Sky is Not Falling. Be sure to check it out and make your predictions!

Sep 10, 2019 05:11 AM #15
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Thomas J. Nelson, Realtor e-Pro, CRS, RCS-D, Vets

& Host of Postcards From Success Podcast
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