Don't focus on Political Names and Parties ~ Focus on Economics

By
Real Estate Agent with Coldwell Banker United Realtors® ~ 512.750.6899
https://activerain.com/droplet/5gXY

I love this time of year and make it a practice to attend as many economic forecasts as I can for the year. I like to hear all the perspectives and always learn something. Recently I attended the Home Builders Association Greater Austin 2019 Housing forecast at the AT & T Center. HBA President Becky Collins introduced us to Eldon Rude, Principle, 360 Real Estate Analytics, Mollie Carmichael, Principle, Meyers Research LLC and Julia Coronado, President and Founder MacroPolicy Perspectives.

I’m still digesting all the informative material. Julia‘s presentation of the global view indicates the global economy is slowing, which is no surprise. We've been seeing signs of that in the 4th quarter of 2018.

Comparing the global and local over view was enlightening and, put things in perspective. The latest in Home Trends (that can be a post all in of its own) was very intriguing but also not surprising.

Eldon‘s focus was on the Austin forecast which I was most interested in. His advice is spot on “Study the economic data and not negative headlines.” There are many articles that the headlines are distorted with articles not based on the facts (what else is new). Austin is off to a great start in 2019 and it appears we will have a strong spring market. The Economic data suggests continued strong demand for housing in Austin. Is there concern for cautious optimism, of course, we have a supply problem and the last 7 years our sales have grown dramatically. Companies are starting to lower expectations because they can’t continue to sustain the phenomenal growth rate and earnings and this affects the housing market.

In a nutshell homes starts and sales will be somewhat slower/flatter in 2019, nationally, regionally and locally.

In the last 30-90 days the global economy has slowed causing the national inflation to flatten. Inflation is the focus on the Federal Reserve which in turn slows rates rising. It appears the possibility of rates hikes in 2019 currently is slim but we need to be watchful. Large corporate relocation announcements will continue through 2019.

The main factors to consider for Austin:

  • Continued strong job growth
  • Good sales in December and January of 2019..strong spring market
  • Buyer confidence is more fragile
  • Higher costs and potential rate hikes later in 2019
  • Builder/developer challenges

Available land (location)

Developed in a timely manner

Labor shortages

Material costs

Austin has a great start for the year due to strong sales in December and January which bodes well for a strong spring market. We all will be watching as new inventory comes on the market and goes off. Following the data will be the key to further predictions for 2019!

I've attended other forecasts this January and the there is a common thread with the same message: "Economics is politics but don't focus on politics, names or a party." The facts are the tax reform and removal of regulations have done wonders for our economy. The American economy hasn't been this good in 10 years. The tariffs have been settled between Mexico and Canada. China is another story but remember we buy 5 times more than they buy from us. The only thing we really need from China is leather. We can't cure leather and China can because they have no emission controls.

With all this talk about recession remember individual debt is down which means even if we get talked to death about being in one..it won't be a major one.

Many say Austin is becoming unafforable. Compared to the west and east coasts we are still VERY affordable even with all the companies moving here. I guess if you really want affordabilty than move to Lubbock! LOL!

We need inventory..... if you are thinking of selling there is no better time than now! Reach out to me so we can discuss current market trends in NW Austin. I can help position your home to reach the audience looking to purchase your home. Hiring the RIGHT NW Austin Realtor® is critical to your home selling success!

 

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Topic:
Real Estate Market Trends
Location:
Texas Travis County Austin
Groups:
Texas Real Estate
All Thing's Texas
All Real Estate - Today and Tomorrow
Crap-Tacular
2018 Market Reports
Tags:
home builders association
att center
becky collins
eldon rude
360 real estate analytics
mollie carmichael
meyers research llc
julia coronado
macro policy perspectives
austin forecast
builders forecast

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Rainmaker
3,296,357
Wayne Martin
Wayne M Martin - Chicago, IL
Real Estate Broker - Retired

Good morning Dorie. Many areas may experience a slow down but lace up your track shoes because Austin will continue to be hot! Enjoy your day!

Jan 22, 2019 04:44 AM #1
Rainmaker
5,028,671
Barbara Todaro
RE/MAX Executive Realty - Franklin, MA
Marketing Agent for The Todaro Team

Good  morning, Dorie Dillard CRS GRI ABR take advantage of the activity and growth in your area, especially in this political and economic environment....

Jan 22, 2019 05:13 AM #2
Rainmaker
2,573,325
Brian England
Arizona Focus Realty - Gilbert, AZ
MBA, GRI, REALTOR® Real Estate in East Valley AZ

With all of the fake news out there these days, it is probably best to ignore the headlines or at least fact check them, haha.

Jan 22, 2019 05:26 AM #3
Rainmaker
3,356,957
Michael Jacobs
Pasadena, CA
Los Angeles Pasadena 818.516.4393

Good morning,  Dorie - avoiding negative headlines is a good strategy for success. 

Jan 22, 2019 06:40 AM #4
Rainmaker
3,825,383
Dorie Dillard CRS GRI ABR
Coldwell Banker United Realtors® ~ 512.750.6899 - Austin, TX
Serving Buyers & Sellers in NW Austin Real Estate

Hi Wayne Martin : A lot of negative news is impacting consumers..you have to look at the real numbers to see how our economy is doing.

Hi Barbara Todaro : We are all doing better than what we think we are doing.

Hi Brian England : I stay away from listening o the TV news..its always distorted.

Hi Michael Jacobs : I soooo agree with you!!

Jan 22, 2019 01:52 PM #5
Rainmaker
4,481,317
Ron and Alexandra Seigel
Napa Consultants - Carpinteria, CA
Luxury Real Estate Branding, Marketing & Strategy

Dorie,

We agree, economics rule...everything else is irrevlevant for the most part.  Wishing you a great rest of the day.  A

Jan 22, 2019 02:13 PM #6
Ambassador
3,817,746
George Souto
George Souto NMLS #65149 FHA, CHFA, VA Mortgages - Middletown, CT
Your Connecticut Mortgage Expert

Dorie good advice.  Look at the facts and figures, and not at political agendas.

Jan 22, 2019 02:57 PM #7
Ambassador
1,344,106
Gayle Rich-Boxman Fishhawk Lake Real Estate
John L Scott Market Center - Birkenfeld, OR
"Your Local Expert!" 503-755-2905

Well, dear, you covered it all, I'd say. I just heard today on NPR that real estate sales were down 6+%, in the last month, I think? Can't recall the exact details, as I was driving and my memory is more visual than audio. BUT. As you say, don't listen to everything you hear as the golden rule (my paraphrasing). There are areas that aren't affected, and we don't have to adhere to the doom and gloom of the current political situation. 

My favorite loan officer is kicking BUTT with great rates, and I have properties in sale pending, so I'm not buying into the negative one bit!! 

Jan 22, 2019 07:16 PM #8
Rainmaker
2,939,268
James Dray
Fathom Realty - Bentonville, AR
Exceptional Agents, Outstanding Results

Morning Dorie.

All real estate is local.  Like you, our market (price range), is low in some areas, while having an oversupply in others.  This year so far, is outstanding compared to 2018

Jan 23, 2019 01:47 AM #9
Rainmaker
3,825,383
Dorie Dillard CRS GRI ABR
Coldwell Banker United Realtors® ~ 512.750.6899 - Austin, TX
Serving Buyers & Sellers in NW Austin Real Estate

Good morning Ron and Alexandra Seigel : Yes I believe economics rule...follow the data and then verify!

Hi George Souto : So many get caught up in emotions and drawing a line in the sand, they forget to follow that data and make their own interpretations.

Hi Gayle Rich-Boxman Fishhawk Lake Real Estate : So refreshing to see your face show up! I'm not falling into the doom and gloom either. Scare tactics never work with me and when access to the data is so available its easy to follow the yellow brick road and find the right answers.

Hi James Dray : You make a valid point real estate is local. Everyone has to move at some point and will always need housing..it's a staple item.

Jan 23, 2019 05:17 AM #10
Rainmaker
1,694,236
Lise Howe
Keller Williams Capital Properties - Washington, DC
Assoc. Broker and Attorney Licensed in DC, MD, VA,

it is always good to see what is predicted for the year - and to look back and see how close they were on the previous year's predictions.

Jan 23, 2019 05:57 AM #11
Rainmaker
1,231,599
Sheri Sperry - MCNE®
Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage - Sedona, AZ
(928) 274-7355 ~ YOUR Solutions REALTOR®

HI Dorie Dillard CRS GRI ABR - I think you are spot on the analysis of economics and politics.  As for Austin, I think your area has the right formula in place for long and sustained growth.  How wonderful!

Being a sales person for most of my life, I talk to a lot of people.  I recently had a conversation with one store owner and they have never had better sales and traffic through the store.  This is just one story of many I have heard.  Our tourism is literally out of control.  

And yes....all real estate is local!

Jan 23, 2019 06:35 AM #12
Ambassador
3,895,498
Kathy Streib
Room Service Home Staging - Delray Beach, FL
Home Stager - Palm Beach County,FL -561-914-6224

Dorie- your title says it all!!! And, good for you for attending these forecasts every year! This is why you are the professional that you are. Numbers matter and you have to put aside what the talking heads say and look at the numbers. 

Jan 23, 2019 05:11 PM #13
Ambassador
3,337,838
Debe Maxwell, CRS
www.iCharlotteHomes.com | The Maxwell House Group | RE/MAX Executive | (704) 491-3310 - Charlotte, NC
Charlotte Homes for Sale - Charlotte Neighborhoods

Some areas are more depressed than others and I have noticed that many of the talking heads are only citing the reduced sales numbers. Watching the local market closely is a passion of mine and I have to say that those numbers are seriously impacted by the lack of inventory. Secondly, the lack of inventory, in my opinion only, has also caused talking heads locally to speculate that our area is no longer affordable either.

Like you, I don't let the speculations impact my business - it's like water cooler conversations - I stay away from the naysayers and hang with the positive, forward-thinking people!! 

Jan 27, 2019 04:49 PM #14
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Rainmaker
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Dorie Dillard CRS GRI ABR

Serving Buyers & Sellers in NW Austin Real Estate
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