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Overstated Home Values Not as 'localized' as You May Think - A Follow Up...

By
Mortgage and Lending with Mortgage Advisory Group CL-36130

This information comes from the National Association of Realtors for Quarter 4 of 2006:

 

NAR 4th quarter 2006 home prices
Metro Area  Median Price
4Q 2005 (000s)
Median Price
4Q 2006 (000s)
% Change
(1-yr)

U.S. $225.3$219.3-2.7%
NORTHEAST $281.7$274.6-2.5%
MIDWEST $168.9$161.8-4.2%
SOUTH $188.7$181.7-3.7%
WEST $353.6$355.10.4%

As part of its quarterly survey, the National Association of Realtors reported a 2.7 percent decline in prices in the fourth quarter compared to the fourth quarter of a year earlier. That's the biggest year-over-year drop on record.

In addition, 73 markets of 149 tracked reported a decline in prices. That decline was far more widespread than in the third quarter, when only 45 markets reported drops.

But I'm just a lender...

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J Perrin Cornell
Coldwell Banker Cascade Real Estate - Wenatchee, WA
Broker, ABR, VAMRES

I don't think we disagree but a decline in prices is NOT a decline in value.... or more correctly a loss to the seller.  The median price fell from what it had been. many possible reasons but the obvious one is sellers could not get what they were asking. However, the unanswered question is was the decreased median price below what they paid for it or just not as much as they anticipated. (you buy a stock at 100.... in two years it goes to 130 and you sell but you only get 127 did you drop some money...not actually but you lost a paper profit that was never realized). Same thing in the real estate market. To get a more correct picture you would need to see what the run up was in the previous 3-five years then if the median declined below that level you are talking a potential loss.

Not trying to be Polly Anna. BUT a marginal decline or reduction in the rate of growth is a good thing. A wild continued up and up is for sure looking for a crash. This is more of a sign of a market trying to seek its own limit and getting a little more solid and a little less air.

It means REALTORS will need to do a better job. Buyers may be a little more in control, sellers will neeed to give an inch and lenders will see a fall off as a slow or slightly declining market will leave some people not wanting to sell as the appreciation they were trying to capture and perhaps re-use will take longer to achieve. Also not to nit pick but you are still talking about less than one half of the tracked markets...

San Diego was about three years ahead of Wenatchee in the run -up. We are still moving up although not as fast and I believe since we are already seeing a slight cooloing they will be way ahead on the downside and we will coast out smoothly. But then we will only know in three years and the rest is all speculation isn't it.

Mar 06, 2007 08:25 AM
Geordie Romer
Windermere Real Estate / NCW - Leavenworth, WA
Serving Leavenworth, Lake Wenatchee, and Plain

If the median price was $355,000 for the West, why does it surprise anyone that home prices in Wenatchee are going up?  Most of our buyers are from the West and are bringing expectations and often equity that reflects this larger regional reality. $355,000 is not some fantastically magical number. It is the MEDIAN.

I'm not saying high home prices are a good thing. But why is everyone in Wenatchee always so shocked about it? And why does anyone think it is going to end any time soon?

May 14, 2007 09:40 PM