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Will Fall mean falling prices?

By Sara Lipnitz

Real Estate Agent with Max Broock Realtors

August 25, 2006 11:13 AM

Well, its official. I can smell fall in the air. Its still summer and I plan to enjoy the boat for at least another month.... But fall is coming. Michigan is absolutely gorgeous in the fall. It's personally my favorite time of the year. Fall colors, Big 10 football and the Michigan phenomenon, the Cider Mill. It's great.

Fall usually means that the local real estate market will start to slow down, getting ready to hibernate for the winter.

I took the time today to run market statistics and updates. I looked at sales trends closely. I also called all of my listings and scheduled appointments to discuss the market and our plans for the next few months.

I plan to have "realistic" conversations with my sellers. For example, I have 4 listings between $900k and $1.1m in Birmingham. Market statistics say that there will only be 11 more houses to sell in that price range this year. There are 65 homes on the market in this range... so I have to position my listing carefully to make sure that my 4 homes are part of the 11 that sell.

Asking my customers to be honest with themselves is going to be difficult... But I have to do it. I just wonder will fall be the beginning of falling prices?

Who else has a weather dictated sales season? How do you handle it? What type of advice can you share?

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Maureen Francis

Coldwell Banker Weir Manuel - Bloomfield Hills, MI

Coldwell Banker Weir Manuel

As we drove home from 'Up North" today we were struck by the changing leaves! They all looked green when we were headed North last Sunday.

I like your idea of scheduling a meeting with your sellers. I think the in person conversation will be very effective in determining motivations.

Aug 25, 2006 11:20 AM

GA-agent.com Georgia Real Estate Directory

GA-agent.com - Canton, GA

Excellent idea on researching market trends and forecasts...Where did you get your info from?

Your local MLS?

How did your sellers respond to that valuable info?

Aug 25, 2006 01:00 PM

James, I am pretty sure that Sara calculates the absorption rates herself. Our mls does not supply them. Someone posted in the last week about calculating them, if you are interested in knowing how to do it. I just don't remember who it was.

Aug 25, 2006 01:27 PM

Karen Villa Schweinfurth

RE/MAX Northwest Realtors, Inc. 425-308-3669 - Everett, WA

ABR, CRS, SRES, CyberStar

Traditonally our first and second quarters are the busiest with September and October following. However, we have had a very fast market and booming economy with a limited number of listings. But I review market time of my comps with my clients and that usually covers their concerns.

Summer months people here are enjoying sun and fun and water and aren't into buying. As soon as the kiddies hit school, we get busy. Go figure.

Aug 25, 2006 02:11 PM

Mitchell J Hall

Manhattan, NY

Lic Associate RE Broker - Manhattan & Brooklyn

I just came home from dinner and it turned to fall out tonight. It's not even labor day yet.

I think $1 million will be a bigger threshold. I lost a listing in June. I priced it at $999,000 didn't think it would go over $1 million. We have a mansion tax 1% everything over a million. They listed with another agent for $1.1. It was lowered to $995. and a contract was signed.

Aug 25, 2006 04:12 PM

Sara Lipnitz

Max Broock Realtors - Birmingham, MI

No panic here... However, the fact is that market statistics tell me what to expect, within reason. I think that its my fiduciary responsibilty to meet with each seller for a market update. Some sellers will choose to sit tight and ride it out. Others may need to make the necessary adjustments to sell sooner. AND that adjustment may not necessarily be a price reduction. Maybe they'll consider open houses, broker opens, or even a bonus to the selling agent.

The meeting will not only be a great opportunity to discuss the market. I think it will ultimately help me retain my customers for the long haul.

Aug 25, 2006 04:44 PM

JWilliams,

What you are talking about with negotiating with a bank is a forclosure. Yes there are some forclosures out there and yes a VERY few banks are selling properties at deep discounts. A very few. Respectfully speaking, you're buying into to the Real Estate Urban Myth I wrote about last week.

Aug 31, 2006 01:13 AM

Well, I hope that when the time presents itself... you call me! As I mentioned in my last post... I wasn't trying to offend!

Thank you for reading my blog. I appreciate any feedback... even if we don't see eye to eye.

Aug 31, 2006 10:14 AM

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Sara Lipnitz

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