Since we aren't seeing a cool down of the heatwave in LA, let's cool..

By
Real Estate Agent with Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices 01238708
https://activerain.com/droplet/5kFg

Since we aren’t seeing a cool down of the heatwave in LA, let’s cool down the recession talk especially if you are a Real Estate  Professional or are in any Real Estate “related” or “ancillary” field such as Lenders. I personally find that this is the most counter-productive attempt at getting attention for the wrong reasons.

 www.endrebarath.com

In case you are wondering, this post was inspired by, or should I say is in response to, a “featured” Active Rain post.  And in my opinion it should not have been. Rather, this post should have found its own natural death by a lack of support and  lack of comments from the Active Rain community, but what do I know. To be clear, this is not a political post, simply a response to a great deal of bad information the featured post was providing.

 www.endrebarath.com

In actuality, there has been a tremendous increase in the volume of these types of  forecasts on most platforms; sadly, most are partisan driven. The writers are hoping that an economic slowdown will defeat our current president and give them an edge. Maybe these writers forgot how painful it was to survive and thrive in the last recession.  So why work towards a “self-fulfilling prophesy”?

 

Let me be clear “Hopes and political motivation do not make for sound economic forecasts”, no matter how articulate and how  convincingly the authors back up their positions with  the “yield curve”. Let’s look at what people in the financial world had to say:

 

“The inverted yield curve is slightly suspect because this time it’s for a separate reason,” said Art Cashin, UBS director of floor operations at the New York Stock Exchange.

 

The difference, he said, is that past inversions came when the Fed was tightening policy, while this has come during a loosening period. 

 

 “…consumers remain in much better shape, particularly domestically…we see little evidence to suggest a recession is on the horizon…”(Robert Sharps Group Chief Investment Officer T. Rowe Price Blue Chip Growth Fund)

 

“…Happy birthday to America’s longest-ever economic expansion…in U.S. history. And the good news continues. Third-quarter numbers will set new records…but rather than partying most pundits are preparing eulogies. This expansion is too old, they fret. Wrong! Economic cycle don’t die of old age…Ken Fisher (founder and executive chairman of Fisher Investments)

 

Now if you are a multimillionaire and are politically opposed to the current regime, I get it, you are not affected by this. Clearly, you will be fine and not only survive - you will prosper. You do not need to give up your $300 bottles of Champagne and $500 dinner tabs and you can continue to take limousines and private jets to your parties.

 www.endrebarath.com

What a poor motive to ruin the entire country’s economy. Seriously - have people forgotten what a difficult time it was for the middle-class working people during the last recession? They were the ones who had to face and deal with the last recession.  They are always the hardest hit. And have we forgotten how many Real Estate Practitioners had to find other jobs or augment their livelihood to survive and maintain their business?

 

While the rest of us are trying to pay our monthly bills and manage our mortgage, we are the people for whom these well-intentioned people seem to care for on the surface, but will be hit the hardest.

Just to be clear none of the major institutional forecasters are looking ahead to a recession in 2019 or even 2020. The International Monetary fund reported that global growth is expected to expand to 3.5 percent in 2020 and the US economy is expected to expand at 1.9 percent. Most of the other projections come from the current economic indicators, none of which are signaling a recession in the months ahead.

 

The US economy has been expanding at a modest annual rate since the last recession.  In 2016, the GDP expanded by 1.6 percent. Under the current administration, the GDP expanded to 2.4 percent in 2017; 2.9 percent in 2018; and over the past two quarters of 2019, the GDP expanded at a 2.4 percent annual rate.

 

The odds of a recession in the United States over the next two years do not appear to be very high since unemployment has been at its lowest in 50 years and the strong labor market has been downplayed.

 

I have long contemplated whether to write this post or to hold off. The straight-talking, knowledgeable Realtor in me said I must write the counterpoint. Ironically, this delay has supported my point even more.

 

According to a Realtor.com article published on August 26, 2019, 2% of economists, strategists and policy makers believe that there  will be a recession this year; 38% believe it will begin in 2020; 25% anticipate one in 2021; while 25% believe one will begin in 2022.

 

I am not naïve to think that the odds of a recession can be changed if there are external forces such as massive terrorist attacks, oil embargoes or a sustained trade and tariff war between the US and China continue and go unresolved. The odds of that are not as high as one would think. So, without these external forces WHY push the “recession message”?

 

Well my friends, the answer is clear. Those that push this agenda do not care about your financial well-being. They are idealistically motivated under the “guise” of caring for you”. I have been a free thinker since I was a child, you should be too and do not believe or push the “false prophets”.

 

If you are looking for a knowledgeable, focused and goal-oriented Realtor in the Beverly Hills area who will help you achieve your Real Estate goals, please reach out to me directly!

If you are looking for a pet friendly Beverly Hills Realtor who can handle and sell the most difficult properties that no one else could, please reach out to me directly!! If you are considering buying or selling a home, a luxury home, luxury investment real estate, luxury vacation homes, or luxury beach properties in Southern California, Los Angeles, Century City, Westwood, West Hollywood, Beverly Hills, Marina Del Rey, Venice or Malibu, feel free to contact me at 310.486.1002 (m) or homes@endrebarath.com or visit one of my websites at https://www.endrebarath.com  I contribute a portion of my commission to local animal rescue organizations.

 

 

close

This entry hasn't been re-blogged:

Re-Blogged By Re-Blogged At
Topic:
ActiveRain Community
Location:
California Los Angeles County Beverly Hills
Groups:
International Real Estate
Local Expert
Bananatude
ActiveRain History Station
ActiveRain MasterMinds
Tags:
endre barath
endrea barath berkshire hathaway realtor
observations about recession

Post a Comment
Spam prevention
Spam prevention
Show All Comments
Rainmaker
3,209,690
Endre Barath, Jr.
Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices - Beverly Hills, CA
Realtor - Los Angeles Home Sales 310.486.1002

Debra Leisek  and some people are just regurgitating the same bad information and think it is reality, Endre

Sep 08, 2019 11:38 PM #49
Rainmaker
3,209,690
Endre Barath, Jr.
Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices - Beverly Hills, CA
Realtor - Los Angeles Home Sales 310.486.1002

Eva B. Liland with Century 21 Doug Anderson  I am so amazed at the naive way certain people are putting out the wrong message  when all they have to do is look around and see that the information they are spreading is just wrong, Endre

Sep 08, 2019 11:42 PM #50
Rainmaker
3,209,690
Endre Barath, Jr.
Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices - Beverly Hills, CA
Realtor - Los Angeles Home Sales 310.486.1002

Debe Maxwell, CRS  I do not believe America is that blind but certain people have blinders on and  are operating with what I consider a "don't confuse me with facts I have made up my mind " mentality, Endre

Sep 08, 2019 11:44 PM #51
Ambassador
3,358,739
Debe Maxwell, CRS
www.iCharlotteHomes.com | The Maxwell House Group | RE/MAX Executive | (704) 491-3310 - Charlotte, NC
Charlotte Homes for Sale - Charlotte Neighborhoods

YES, YES, YES!!

No matter HOW logical you are or the cold, hard facts which you are presenting, they don't even WANT to hear. I just don't get it - never will, Endre.

Sep 09, 2019 11:37 PM #53
Rainmaker
3,209,690
Endre Barath, Jr.
Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices - Beverly Hills, CA
Realtor - Los Angeles Home Sales 310.486.1002

Debe Maxwell, CRS  I was on the phone for about an hour plus with a developer this evening and we both agreed what you just said... the small minds do not get it...Endre

Sep 09, 2019 11:41 PM #54
Ambassador
3,358,739
Debe Maxwell, CRS
www.iCharlotteHomes.com | The Maxwell House Group | RE/MAX Executive | (704) 491-3310 - Charlotte, NC
Charlotte Homes for Sale - Charlotte Neighborhoods

I don't know what it will take to change that mentality but, they are truly fine destroying this amazing country with their distorted agenda.

Something does need to change - the 'lemming effect' is alive & REAL!

Sep 09, 2019 11:50 PM #55
Rainmaker
3,209,690
Endre Barath, Jr.
Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices - Beverly Hills, CA
Realtor - Los Angeles Home Sales 310.486.1002

Sadly you are correct Debe Maxwell, CRS  yes they are ready to march off the cliff and they do not even see that it is a cliff:)Endre

Sep 09, 2019 11:55 PM #56
Rainmaker
1,502,305
Beth Atalay
Cam Realty and Property Management - Clermont, FL
Cam Realty of Clermont FL

Hi Endre Barath, Jr., so glad to see this post featured.  I don't understand the mentality of those who clearly get pleasure of a failing US economy. No matter what you and I say, some will continue to put down our great country every chance they get. 

Sep 10, 2019 10:33 AM #57
Rainmaker
3,209,690
Endre Barath, Jr.
Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices - Beverly Hills, CA
Realtor - Los Angeles Home Sales 310.486.1002

Beth Atalay  thank you for your observation, some people just do not get it, Endre

Sep 10, 2019 06:30 PM #58
Ambassador
912,328
Lynn B. Friedman
Atlanta Homes ODAT Realty Call/Text 404-939-2727 Buckhead - Midtown - Westside -- and more ... - Atlanta, GA
Concierge Service for Our Atlanta Sellers & Buyers

Endre Barath, Jr. 
The beauty of ActiveRain - a place to speak our personal truths respectfully.
Your posts are always full of verifiable facts to support your point of view.
We are so short of inventory here that things are "poppin".
All the best - Lynn

Sep 11, 2019 10:59 PM #59
Rainmaker
922,313
Ginger Harper
Coldwell Banker Sea Coast Advantage - Southport, NC
Your Southport~Oak Island Agent~Brunswick County!

This is so sad.  YOu are right.

Sep 12, 2019 01:16 PM #60
Rainmaker
1,235,391
Gene Mundt, IL/WI Mortgage Originator - FHA/VA/Conv/Jumbo/Portfolio/Refi
NMLS #216987, IL Lic. 031.0006220, WI Licensed. APMC NMLS #175656 - New Lenox, IL
708.921.6331 - 40+ yrs experience

Ironic that you post on this topic, Endre Barath, Jr. ... as my wife and I were just holding a discussion on much the same.  Both my wife and I are on the internet and social media sites throughout the day.  Time and time again we see those in our industry posting articles that are negative in content ... about a variety of industry scenarios and topics.  While the media may be focusing on the possibility of a recession right now (give them a moment and they'll be on to some other topic) ... those within our industry put a bullhorn on negatives way too often.  While I believe we have a duty to educate the public, I do think we must be careful in how we deliver our message.  Fueling a fear fire doesn't help.

Gene 

Sep 16, 2019 09:04 AM #61
Rainmaker
3,209,690
Endre Barath, Jr.
Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices - Beverly Hills, CA
Realtor - Los Angeles Home Sales 310.486.1002

Lynn B. Friedman  you make a good point but not all the members on AR fit your description, Endre

Sep 16, 2019 11:31 PM #62
Rainmaker
3,209,690
Endre Barath, Jr.
Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices - Beverly Hills, CA
Realtor - Los Angeles Home Sales 310.486.1002

Ginger Harper  thank you for your support, Endre

Sep 16, 2019 11:32 PM #63
Rainmaker
3,209,690
Endre Barath, Jr.
Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices - Beverly Hills, CA
Realtor - Los Angeles Home Sales 310.486.1002

Gene Mundt, IL/WI Mortgage Originator - FHA/VA/Conv/Jumbo/Portfolio/Refi  well said and I should add your comment into my post:)Endre

Sep 16, 2019 11:33 PM #64
Rainmaker
387,452
Gwen Banta
Sotheby's International Realty - Los Angeles, CA

I love, "Economic cycles don't die of old age." Thanks for this uplifting message, Endre.

Sep 29, 2019 05:15 PM #65
Rainmaker
387,452
Gwen Banta
Sotheby's International Realty - Los Angeles, CA

Incidentally, the one thing would challenge you on is the LA  weather. Can you believe how cool it is?!

Sep 29, 2019 05:17 PM #66
Rainmaker
3,209,690
Endre Barath, Jr.
Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices - Beverly Hills, CA
Realtor - Los Angeles Home Sales 310.486.1002

Gene Mundt, IL/WI Mortgage Originator - FHA/VA/Conv/Jumbo/Portfolio/Refi  well said we can not be crying wolf when there is a sheep at the door, Endre

Sep 29, 2019 09:41 PM #67
Rainmaker
3,209,690
Endre Barath, Jr.
Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices - Beverly Hills, CA
Realtor - Los Angeles Home Sales 310.486.1002

Gwen Banta  glad you liked the message and funny we just got our DWP bill and it is not funny.... so yes we are thrilled that it cooled down today:)Endre

Sep 29, 2019 09:42 PM #68
Anonymous
gwen banta

No kidding - DWP is interfering with my retirement plans!

Sep 29, 2019 10:43 PM #69
Post a Comment
Spam prevention
Show All Comments

What's the reason you're reporting this blog entry?

Are you sure you want to report this blog entry as spam?

Rainmaker
3,209,690

Endre Barath, Jr.

Realtor - Los Angeles Home Sales 310.486.1002
Ask me a question
*
*
*
*
Spam prevention