What Is the Probability That Home Values Will Sink?

Real Estate Agent with www.iCharlotteHomes.com | The Maxwell House Group | RE/MAX Executive | (704) 491-3310 228209

What Is the Probability That Home Values Will Sink?


With the current state of uncertainty about the economy triggered by a flood of media ‘hype’ on the subject, there are some who are waiting to purchase their first home or even move-up to their dream house. The fear? That home prices will fall over the next few years or the dreaded ‘R’ word is upon us. Once again, here is more data from the experts who disagree vehemently with this perspective.


The following table shows the predicted level of appreciation from six major housing sources:

Probability of housing appreciation is MINIMAL


As you probably expected, every source is confident that home prices will continue to appreciate. Granted, all sources predict slightly lower levels than we have seen over the last several years but, not one source is calling for residential real estate values to depreciate.


Even ARCH Mortgage Insurance Company’s most recent Housing and Mortgage Market Review, the ARCH Risk Index is showing low probability in most states, 2 years from now. Not one state in the nation had a moderate probability of home prices lowering. In fact, 34 of the 50 states had a minimal probability.


Home price appreciation projections 2019 2020


*The typically conservative ARCH Risk Index estimates the probability of home prices being lower in two years. 


The Bottom Line in Charlotte Real Estate



Those waiting for prices to fall before purchasing a home should realize that the probability of that happening anytime soon is very low. With mortgage rates already at near historic lows, now may be the time to act.


**Thanks to KCM for providing the graphics contained within.


READ MORE about our current state of the real estate market in Charlotte

Keep Calm – The Sky is Not Falling! This Is NOT 2008

Keep Calm and Don’t Be a Chicken Little

Home Sales Expected to Continue Increasing In 2020


If you're looking for more information about the pseudo-recession, the ActiveRain platform is hosting a challenge this month, inviting our boots-on-the-ground membership to share the true status of the current real estate market.  Links to the members' articles can be found at FALL CHALLENGE 2019 - PLAN BY ANSWERING THE DIFFICULT QUESTIONS.



Debe Maxwell | The Maxwell House Group | RE/MAX Executive | CharlotteBroker@icloud.com | What Is the Probability That Home Values Will Sink?


Re-Blogged 1 time:

Re-Blogged By Re-Blogged At
  1. Barbara Todaro 09/14/2019 07:39 AM
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James Dray
Fathom Realty - Bentonville, AR
Exceptional Agents, Outstanding Results

Morning Debe.

The good thing is, I didn't see any moderte States.  Have a great day, TTFN

Sep 14, 2019 02:07 AM #1
Grant Schneider
Performance Development Strategies - Armonk, NY
Your Coach Helping You Create Successful Outcomes

Good morning Debe Maxwell, CRS - in the long term markets are up and that includes real estate.  Those who like the quick ins and out might get caught but otherwise a balanced investment portfolio and or including real estate is long term growth.

Sep 14, 2019 03:36 AM #2
Wayne Martin
Wayne M Martin - Chicago, IL
Real Estate Broker - Retired

Good morning Debe. All this negativity has little basis in fact. But bad news sells, so that is what they report! Enjoy your day!

Sep 14, 2019 06:00 AM #3
Michael Jacobs
Pasadena, CA
Los Angeles Pasadena 818.516.4393

Hello Debe - Hmmm...discussions of Probability bring me back to the clasroom,  Is there a window in the room where I can gaze/glance about something else.  I digress...  People buy/sell real estate for a number of reasons.  Sinking values?  Hmm..what is the reason behind a potential purchase?  

Sep 14, 2019 06:06 AM #4
Barbara Todaro
RE/MAX Executive Realty - Franklin, MA
Marketing Agent for The Todaro Team

Good morning, Debe Maxwell, CRS  all real estate is local!!!  in the state of MA, it's not likely that prices will tank.... there are always slight corrections for on reason or another....but it always rallies, too....

Sep 14, 2019 06:44 AM #5
Brian England
Arizona Focus Realty - Gilbert, AZ
MBA, GRI, REALTOR® Real Estate in East Valley AZ

I agree with that and my hope is that not many sheep will follow those that are predicting doom and gloom.  Stay positive and you will receive positive in return!

Sep 14, 2019 07:30 AM #6
George Souto
George Souto NMLS #65149 FHA, CHFA, VA Mortgages - Middletown, CT
Your Connecticut Mortgage Expert

Debe we went through declining prices between 2008 to about 2012/2014, but prices are on their way up now and equity returning.  Will home price go down in the future, that is bound to happen again, but I do not think it will be for serveral more years.

Sep 14, 2019 12:25 PM #7
Ricki Eichler McCallum
CastNet Realty - Corpus Christi, TX
Broker,GRI,ABR, e-Pro, TAHS

Hi Debe,  It's good news for the sellers but not for buyers that are hesitating.  Now is the Time to Buy!!!!

Sep 14, 2019 12:55 PM #8
Myrl Jeffcoat
GreatWest Realty - Sacramento, CA
Greater Sacramento Real Estate Agent

While market conditions vary across the country, Sacramento has experienced an elongated time frame where we have been short on inventory.  It continues to be a strong seller's market.  I don't have a crystal ball, but as long as interest rates remain low, and folks are working, I don't see potential for home values declining.

Sep 15, 2019 01:11 AM #9
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Debe Maxwell, CRS

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