My last Market Observation for the year 2019 as well as for the decade...

By
Real Estate Agent with Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices 01238708
https://activerain.com/droplet/5lCJ

Here we are Thanksgiving is now in the rearview mirror and we are moving at lightning speed towards the end of the year. 2019 is virtually in the books and 2020 is fast approaching us! This is my last Market Observations not only for 2019 but for the decade!

www.endrebarath.com

 Now with that said, let’s recap where we are, Black Friday sale were at an all-time high, to the tune of $7.9 Billion,  which is a clear sign that consumers are confident. Most people do not realize the that is about 70% of the economy. Small Business Saturday brought in $3.6 Billion that is truly incredible and clearly consumer confidence is strong. This of course is in addition to the $4.2 Billion that was spent on Thanksgiving Day.

www.endrebarath.com

Despite record low unemployment and incredibly low interest rates, home sales remained lackluster.

What are the reasons most people are wondering? The answer is  a combination of  fearmongering by  the News Media that started  in the beginning of the year. Then the talking heads were spreading misinformation about an impending recession. (Just like a few on this platform) This  in turn put a pause on home sales in the beginning of the year. Hence inventory of ‘for sale homes’ have plummeted. As the saying goes if there is no inventory there is going to be fewer sales.  The move up buyers were afraid to “move up” because of the “impending recession” and this in turn had multiple domino effect on real estate. Ironically this  was all “manufactured misinformation” or should I say wrong information.

www.endrebarath.com

Let me quote you “…all this talk of recession, and you know I thought that was ridiculous talk it’s not going to happen” Mohamed El-Erian Chief economic adviser at Allianz Global Investors. I have been saying this all year along to anyone that was willing to listen. BTW this quote was said on 12/02/2019. Small consolation that Mohamed El-Erian and I have been saying the same all year!

www.endrebarath.com

Now with that said, what does my Chrystal ball predict for 2020 from a Real Estate Perspective? As everyone knows, that Real Estate has always been local. Hence let me share here, that there has been an outward migration from California to other states such as Texas, Arizona and Nevada to name a few for the past three years. There are many reasons for that, one of them is the lack of enough new construction. This in turn results in keeping the home prices at an all-time high and forces many to move out. This is due to the lack of affordability. Then to boot there is an aging population that cannot afford the cost of living which is coupled with numerous tax increases on the local and state levels. There has been an on going discussion about easing up on building restrictions, due to many factors.

www.endrebarath.com

The combination of all this in a Presidential Election year will be the key how the local real estate market will fare. I predict inventory will increase due to an easing of building restrictions. Numerous condominium projects are about to go online. This in turn will have home buyers and sellers returning in droves to the Greater Los Angeles Real Estate market. They  buyers and sellers will realize that they made a mistake in 2019 by listening to the false prophets about recession. Hence I anticipate a busy Los Angeles Real Estate Market in 2020!

www.endrebarath.com

If you are looking for a pet friendly Beverly Hills Realtor who can handle and sell the most difficult properties that no one else could, please reach out to me directly!! If you are considering buying or selling a home, a luxury home, luxury investment real estate, luxury vacation homes, or luxury beach properties in Southern California, Los Angeles, Century City, Westwood, West Hollywood, Beverly Hills, Marina Del Rey, Venice or Malibu, feel free to contact me at 310.486.1002 (m) or homes@endrebarath.com or visit one of my websites at https://www.endrebarath.com  I contribute a portion of my commission to local animal rescue organizations.

 

 

 

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Rainmaker
3,262,977
Endre Barath, Jr.
Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices - Beverly Hills, CA
Realtor - Los Angeles Home Sales 310.486.1002

Nina Hollander  indeed I remember we thought we would run out of Champagne for the year 2000:))Endre

Dec 09, 2019 06:55 PM #15
Rainmaker
3,262,977
Endre Barath, Jr.
Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices - Beverly Hills, CA
Realtor - Los Angeles Home Sales 310.486.1002

Ron and Alexandra Seigel  thank you for adding to the conversation, greatly appreciated, Endre

Dec 09, 2019 10:45 PM #16
Rainmaker
3,262,977
Endre Barath, Jr.
Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices - Beverly Hills, CA
Realtor - Los Angeles Home Sales 310.486.1002

Anna Banana Kruchten CRB, CRS  indeed you are right and I should have added your comment to the post:)Endre

Dec 09, 2019 10:46 PM #17
Rainmaker
2,031,478
Grant Schneider
Performance Development Strategies - Armonk, NY
Your Coach Helping You Create Successful Outcomes

Good morning Endre - you make good points about the economy.  We actually have similar problems in home sales in New York as you do in LA.  As far a economic leading indicators I am betting in a good 2020.

Dec 10, 2019 03:51 AM #18
Ambassador
1,935,705
Debb Janes EcoBroker and Bernie Stea JD
ViewHomes of Clark County - Nature As Neighbors - Camas, WA
REALTORS® in Clark County, WA

Hey Endre Barath, Jr. - Apparently, I didnt make myself clear. I was talking about the folks who have been screaming a recession as trying to be fortune tellers. NOT you. My apologies for the miscommunication.  As for things unfolding perfectly in time, that is my philosphy about life - including real estate. But that doesn't mean I don't pay attention to the trends, shifts, and numbers in the marketplace. Like you, being a local resource requires us to know why things are happening. You clearly do, and have a good handle on what's happened, what's happening, and what's likely going to happen. I would never call you a fortune teller, or suggest you gaze into crystal balls for your data.  :) 

Dec 10, 2019 06:39 AM #19
Rainmaker
3,262,977
Endre Barath, Jr.
Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices - Beverly Hills, CA
Realtor - Los Angeles Home Sales 310.486.1002

Carol Williams  thank you for adding to the conversation, yes indeed affordability is a huge concern in my market to, renting or owning same issue:)Endre

Dec 10, 2019 10:17 PM #20
Rainmaker
3,262,977
Endre Barath, Jr.
Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices - Beverly Hills, CA
Realtor - Los Angeles Home Sales 310.486.1002

George Souto  how appropriate your comment is, Congress listened to you today:))Endre

Dec 10, 2019 10:18 PM #21
Rainmaker
3,262,977
Endre Barath, Jr.
Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices - Beverly Hills, CA
Realtor - Los Angeles Home Sales 310.486.1002

Sheri Sperry - MCNE®  you are absolutely right Prop 13 in California has been in the cross hairs for years and hopefully it does not become reality:)Endre

Dec 10, 2019 10:19 PM #22
Rainmaker
3,262,977
Endre Barath, Jr.
Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices - Beverly Hills, CA
Realtor - Los Angeles Home Sales 310.486.1002

Grant Schneider  may our words be prophetic and not get lost in translation:)Endre

Dec 10, 2019 10:20 PM #23
Rainmaker
3,262,977
Endre Barath, Jr.
Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices - Beverly Hills, CA
Realtor - Los Angeles Home Sales 310.486.1002

Debb Janes EcoBroker and Bernie Stea JD  thank you for the clarification, no wonder we are friends and yes some times the Hungarian in me need extra clarification:)Endre

Dec 10, 2019 10:22 PM #24
Rainmaker
3,262,977
Endre Barath, Jr.
Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices - Beverly Hills, CA
Realtor - Los Angeles Home Sales 310.486.1002

 Debb Janes EcoBroker and Bernie Stea JD  yes either Red, bubbly or something, we just need a budget:)) Endre

Dec 11, 2019 10:29 PM #25
Rainmaker
3,254,679
Lawrence "Larry" & Sheila Agranoff. Cell: 631-805-4400
The Top Team @ Charles Rutenberg Realty 255 Executive Dr, Plainview NY 11803 - Plainview, NY
Long Island Home and Condo Specialists

Yes Endre, many of the aging generation cannot afford to live in the states they now call home. We notice that happening here with some moving to Florida, The Carolina's and Arizona...

Dec 12, 2019 04:19 AM #26
Rainmaker
1,493,096
Kat Palmiotti
406-270-3667, kat@thehousekat.com, Broker, Blackstone Realty Group - brokered by eXp Realty - Kalispell, MT
The House Kat

You must have been very busy lately since I haven't seen much from you (and miss your posts!).....  Interesting factoid - I recently pulled a list of homes in the Kalispell/Somers/Lakeside (Montana) areas and found that many homes (at least half) were owned by Californians......  I think many are investing in Montana homes. Maybe renting them out? 

So maybe many are investing outside of CA....

Dec 12, 2019 06:14 PM #27
Ambassador
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Debe Maxwell, CRS
www.iCharlotteHomes.com | The Maxwell House Group | RE/MAX Executive | (704) 491-3310 - Charlotte, NC
Charlotte Homes for Sale - Charlotte Neighborhoods

Oh, I don't know how I missed this post, Endre! I have been busy but, I am always happy to see a post from you!

I completely agree - 100% - on the media/talking heads projections, based on nothing factual. That was harmful to our business for at least a good quarter. Anything they can think to do to poison the minds of Americans on our president. Every day brings more light to those who have been blindly following the media - THANKFULLY! Those who still believe them are simply brainwashed in my opinion. The facts are there for the taking!

And, low cost/affordable housing is a struggle in our area too and the inventory is incredibly low. Why? Because people BOUGHT ALL OF THE INVENTORY!

Love your projections and I agree that 2020 is going to be another stellar year! 

Dec 14, 2019 10:26 PM #28
Ambassador
3,511,491
Debe Maxwell, CRS
www.iCharlotteHomes.com | The Maxwell House Group | RE/MAX Executive | (704) 491-3310 - Charlotte, NC
Charlotte Homes for Sale - Charlotte Neighborhoods

And, yes, I just placed another family from Lawrence "Larry" & Sheila Agranoff. Cell: 631-805-4400's area - they made at least a dozen just for me from Long Island, NY during the past 18 months!  We also welcome Californians who are formerly from Boston!! 

Dec 14, 2019 10:29 PM #29
Rainmaker
2,535,407
Rebecca Gaujot, Realtor®
Vision Quest Realty - Lewisburg, WV
Lewisburg WV, the go to agent for all real estate

Endre, our market has been great this year and expect the same next year. We have many out-of-state buyers coming to West Virginia. Purchasing for investments or their retirement. You definitely know the real estate market in California..

Dec 17, 2019 06:38 AM #30
Rainmaker
802,693
Jane Chaulklin-Schott
TEAMCONNECT REALTY - (407) 394-9766 - Orlando, FL
TeamConnect Luxury Homes - Orlando, Florida, 32836

Hi Endre Barath, Jr.. You wrote a very interesting, insightful post.  I loved the accompanying photos.  Your words plus the photos painted and described a complete picture as we close out the decade.  Wishing you and your family a beautiful and holy Christmas. 

Dec 19, 2019 01:24 PM #31
Rainmaker
2,804,451
Laura Cerrano
Feng Shui Manhattan Long Island - Locust Valley, NY
Certified Feng Shui Expert, Speaker & Researcher

You seem to have this down to a science in to the love solving problems and keeping the train moving

Dec 23, 2019 10:39 PM #34
Rainmaker
3,262,977
Endre Barath, Jr.
Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices - Beverly Hills, CA
Realtor - Los Angeles Home Sales 310.486.1002

Lawrence "Larry" & Sheila Agranoff. Cell: 631-805-4400  it is sad indeed that we do not take care of our elderly unlike Japan...Endre

Dec 26, 2019 09:06 PM #53
Rainmaker
3,262,977
Endre Barath, Jr.
Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices - Beverly Hills, CA
Realtor - Los Angeles Home Sales 310.486.1002

Kat Palmiotti  sometimes it busy sometimes it is priorities:) Hope you had a fantastic and Merry Christmas, Endre

Dec 26, 2019 09:07 PM #54
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