Tomorrow is the beginning of four days of fairly important economic reports and we're getting closer to the signing of the Phase One trade deal with China. For the most part the trade deal is "baked into" the bond markets so consumer mortgage rates should not be significantly impacted as we move closer to the signing date.
The President has said he may begin Phase Two negotiations immediately after the signing of the Trade One Deal or he may wait until after the election.
Mortgage Rates And What To Look For:
Mortgage rates are stable to start the week and fixed mortgage rates remain more attractive than Adjustable Mortgage Rates (generally speaking). 30 year fixed rates for most borrowers remain below 4.00% and 15 year fixed interest rates (for most borrowers) remain below 3.50%.
Right now the 10 year treasury yield is around 1.85% and going back to October, 2018 it's been a range roughly between 1.70% and 2.00%. If the 10 year breaks above 2.00% that could put a lot of pressure on mortgage rates to move much higher than current levels.
For the market to move lower will probably need to see the 10 year yield break below 1.70% (convincingly). If it does don't expect mortgage rates will dramatically improve since they are already on the low end. In fact even with a push below 1.70% there may not be any improvement to rates (or at least any significant improvement ) if the Mortgage Backed Securities market doesn't join in on the rally.
Keep An Eye On The Budget Deficit:
Earlier today CNBC reported that the budget deficit pushed above 1 trillion dollars (first time in seven years). This is not good news for bonds and not good news for mortgage rates. More government debt means more government bonds which pulls investors away from the Mortgage Backed Securities market. Less investors in MBS can lead to higher consumer mortgage rates.
Loan Officer Kevin O'Connor:
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