Strength of the Economy Is Surprising the Experts

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Real Estate Agent with Weichert Realtors | Silver Spring, MD Phone Direct 240-506-2434

Strength of the Economy Is Surprising the Experts

Strength of the Economy Is Surprising the Experts | MyKCM

We’re currently in the longest economic recovery in U.S. history. That has caused some to ask experts to project when the next economic slowdown (recession) could occur. Two years ago, 67% of the economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) for the Economic Forecasting Survey predicted we would have a recession no later than the end of this year (2020). The same study done just three months ago showed more than one third of the economists still saw an economic slowdown right around the corner.

The news caused concern among consumers. This is evidenced by a recent survey done by realtor.com that shows 53% of home purchasers (first-time and repeat buyers) currently in the market believe a recession will occur by the end of this year.

Wait! It seems the experts are changing their minds….

Now, in an article earlier this month, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) revealed only 14.3% of those economists now believe we’re in danger of a recession occurring this year (see graph below):Strength of the Economy Is Surprising the Experts | MyKCMThe WSJ article strongly stated,

“The U.S. expansion, now in its 11th year, will continue through the 2020 presidential election with a healthy labor market backing it up, economists say.”

This optimism regarding the economy was repeated by others as well.

CNBC, quoting Goldman Sachs economists:

“Just months after almost everyone on Wall Street worried that a recession was just around the corner, Goldman Sachs said a downturn is unlikely over the next several years. In fact, the firm’s economists stopped just short of saying that the U.S. economy is recession-proof.”

Barron’s:

“When Barron’s gathers some of Wall Street’s best minds—as we do every January for our annual Roundtable—we expect some consensus, some disagreement…But the 10 veteran investors and economists who convened in New York on Jan. 6 at the Barron’s offices agree that there’s almost no chance of a recession this year.”

Washington Post:

“The U.S. economy is heading into 2020 at a pace of steady, sustained growth after a series of interest rate cuts and the apparent resolution of two trade-related threats mostly eliminated the risk of a recession.”

Robert A. Dye, Chief Economist at Comerica Bank:

"I expect that the U.S. economy will avoid a recession in 2020."

Bottom Line

There probably won’t be a recession this year. That’s good news for you, whether you’re looking to buy or sell a home.

Posted by

My AR banner 2017

Barbara Michaluk, Realtor

Phone 240-506-2434

Email: michaluk@verizon.net  /  Web: BarbaraSellsMDhomes.com

Authorized Leisure World Specialist / Senior Real Estate Specialist /
Internet Marketing Specialist / Certified E-Pro / Certified Staging Agent

Weichert Realtors / 3816 International Dr / Silver Spring, MD 20906

Authorized Leisure World Specialist     Barbara Michaluk Graduate Internet Marketing Specialist Barbara Michaluk Senior Real Estate Specialist   

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Rainer
560,565
Sham Reddy CRS
H E R Realty, Dayton, OH - Dayton, OH
CRS

I like the positive reports!!!

Washington Post: “The U.S. economy is heading into 2020 at a pace of steady, sustained growth after a series of interest rate cuts and the apparent resolution of two trade-related threats mostly eliminated the risk of a recession.”

Jan 31, 2020 05:31 AM #1
Rainmaker
5,261,896
Barbara Todaro
RE/MAX Executive Realty - Franklin, MA
Marketing Agent for The Todaro Team

Good morning, Barbara Michaluk I would like to see a more level real estate market, for sure...

Jan 31, 2020 05:31 AM #2
Rainmaker
193,023
Eva B. Liland Century 21 Doug Anderson
Century 21 Doug Anderson - Lancaster, CA
Glad to be of Service 661-714-1643

I don't see the market levelling off any time soon. Interest rates has made it more affordable in today's market with listing prices still climbing higher and higher. I wish I had a crystal ball.

Jan 31, 2020 06:44 AM #3
Ambassador
953,905
Mike Frazier
Carousel Realty of Dyer County - Dyersburg, TN
Northwest Tennessee Realtor

I am sure the current situation is because President Trump is getting government and regulations out of the way.

Jan 31, 2020 07:57 AM #4
Rainmaker
716,622
Bob Force (REALTOR®)
Weichert - McKenna & Vane - Mount Airy, MD
The FORCE in Maryland Real Estate

Long time since we last talked, suspect it will be soon now.

I learned a long time ago not to predict the economy.

Jan 31, 2020 05:42 PM #5
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Rainmaker
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Barbara Michaluk

Leisure World Specialist / Full Service REALTOR
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