How to think about the coronavirus?

By
Real Estate Agent with John L. Scott Sp34627

I am known to be a smart lady.  A scientist in fact.  About a week ago my broker asked me what I thought of the new virus.   I hemmed and hawed and basically felt we did not have the facts.   I felt that the virus probably did not have the cases rate reported because I believed that the actual cases were underreported.  I thought that at the time there could easily be 200,000 cases.  Then in the next breath I muttered that the deaths might be being underreported because it only counted as a death from the virus if it was diagnosed. 

 

One week later and I sort of feel the same way.  Whatever is coming is scary and will affect people and markets.   It is clear that many more people are sick (and some very sick) than diagnosed.   There is a funnel effect: more of the sickest people are tested, so the death count might be more accurate than the sick count.   I also believe that we will not contain the virus for long (or at all).  I do hope I am wrong.  Before Wuhan was locked down 5 million people left.  Some of those were sick.   Some could be here.   Some thought they had a cold.  I am not sure that this is true.

The other thing I DO KNOW is this will affect the world economy.  This is a global economy and one of the biggest players (China)  is not playing.  With the unsettling conditions in Wuhan more people may die from scarcity than the desease.  Again I do not know.  The press in China is censored.  It does seem that the virus is becoming endemic in other areas.  Low counts now but on Jan. 6 what were the counts in Wuhan?  So I was wondering what others were thinking.

 

By the way here in Boise I have taken the minimal preparation of filling my propane tanks and a bit of dried grains like rice.  Things I should have anyways since sometimes the power goes out.

 

Posted by

  Debbie Holmes

John L. Scott Real Estate

  

(208)761-2551 Email: d5holmes@msn.com

To search Boise Homes visit my website

 

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Rainmaker
5,336,679
Barbara Todaro
RE/MAX Executive Realty - Franklin, MA
Marketing Agent for The Todaro Team

Debbie Holmes at this stage of the political game that we seem to be playing everyday, I would not trust any stats that are disclosed by the WH... but I'm always prepared and well stocked here, too.... 

Feb 07, 2020 07:02 AM #1
Rainer
204,433
Don Baker
Lane Realty - Eatonton, GA

I'm not a scientist, but they have stated they are only reporting "hospital" deaths so anyone who died at home from it isn't being counted.  I agree it's being grossly under reported and I don't think you have to be a scientist to know that it what we can expect from China.

Feb 07, 2020 07:41 AM #2
Rainmaker
3,825,861
Sheila Anderson
Referral Group Incorporated - East Brunswick, NJ
The Real Estate Whisperer Who Listens 732-715-1133

Good afternoon Debbie. I was scheduled to go to Japan next month through China. It took awhile but I finally cancelled this trip because it just didn't make sense to chance it and possibly not be able to get home. I think it is worse than we know and will take some time to abate.

Feb 07, 2020 09:38 AM #3
Anonymous
David Salzberg

My guess is the number of deaths is probably reasonably accurate, but the number of cases is vastly under reported. This is assuming that the deaths are investigated.

Feb 07, 2020 10:03 AM #4
Rainmaker
218,656
Debbie Holmes
John L. Scott - Boise, ID
Gets the job done!

That is mostly my feel but there is anecdotal evidence that the deaths may also be underreported.

Feb 07, 2020 10:09 AM #5
Ambassador
1,706,647
Joe Pryor
The Virtual Real Estate Team - Oklahoma City, OK
REALTOR® - Oklahoma Investment Properties

I go to speak in San Francisco next month and I am concerned about it. 

Feb 07, 2020 02:09 PM #6
Rainmaker
3,625,125
Michael Jacobs
Pasadena, CA
Los Angeles Pasadena 818.516.4393

Hello Debbie - lots of opinions.  And the issue of the coronavirus carries additional.  Lots more? Anecdotally, I'd agree that would be yet another opinion.  

Feb 08, 2020 04:05 AM #7
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Rainmaker
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Debbie Holmes

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