I am known to be a smart lady. A scientist in fact. About a week ago my broker asked me what I thought of the new virus. I hemmed and hawed and basically felt we did not have the facts. I felt that the virus probably did not have the cases rate reported because I believed that the actual cases were underreported. I thought that at the time there could easily be 200,000 cases. Then in the next breath I muttered that the deaths might be being underreported because it only counted as a death from the virus if it was diagnosed.
One week later and I sort of feel the same way. Whatever is coming is scary and will affect people and markets. It is clear that many more people are sick (and some very sick) than diagnosed. There is a funnel effect: more of the sickest people are tested, so the death count might be more accurate than the sick count. I also believe that we will not contain the virus for long (or at all). I do hope I am wrong. Before Wuhan was locked down 5 million people left. Some of those were sick. Some could be here. Some thought they had a cold. I am not sure that this is true.
The other thing I DO KNOW is this will affect the world economy. This is a global economy and one of the biggest players (China) is not playing. With the unsettling conditions in Wuhan more people may die from scarcity than the desease. Again I do not know. The press in China is censored. It does seem that the virus is becoming endemic in other areas. Low counts now but on Jan. 6 what were the counts in Wuhan? So I was wondering what others were thinking.
By the way here in Boise I have taken the minimal preparation of filling my propane tanks and a bit of dried grains like rice. Things I should have anyways since sometimes the power goes out.