Toronto Real Estate Market Largely Unaffected by October 2008 Stock Market Crash
You might recall that there was a major stock market crash in October 2008. It wiped out Lehman Brothers, Goldman and Sachs and led to the bailouts of the auto industry, with Chrysler filing for bankruptcy on 30 April 2009 and GM filing for bankruptcy on 30 June 2009.
The stock market appeared to peaked in April 2007 and softened after that until the actual crash in October. Nine months later following the GM bankruptcy on June 2009, did we actually see the beginning of the financial recovery.
So, how did the Toronto stock market do over that time period?
These are the average selling prices are reported by the Toronto Real Estate Board for a single family home in the GTA. This includes detached, townhouses and condominium apartments. The ORES INDEX was developed in 2005. It marks the January 2005 price as 100, and relates all other prices subsequently to that base.
2007 |
|||||
Month |
Average Price |
Number of Sales |
Monthly Percent Change |
Index |
|
January |
353,724 |
5,173 |
5.20705378 |
109.46428958 |
|
February |
368,687 |
6,772 |
4.23013423 |
114.09477596 |
|
March |
365,285 |
8,518 |
-0.92273392 |
113.04198477 |
|
April |
379,025 |
9,452 |
3.76144654 |
117.29399860 |
|
May |
382,787 |
11,146 |
0.99254667 |
118.45819627 |
|
June |
381,963 |
10,451 |
-0.21526332 |
118.20319922 |
|
July |
366,012 |
8,912 |
-4.17605894 |
113.26696396 |
|
August |
361,890 |
8,059 |
-1.12619258 |
111.99135981 |
|
September |
380,132 |
6,866 |
5.04075824 |
117.63657351 |
|
October |
394,646 |
7,915 |
3.81814738 |
122.12811126 |
|
November |
393,747 |
7,313 |
-0.22779909 |
121.84990453 |
|
December |
376,236 |
4,646 |
-4.44727198 |
116.43090787 |
2008 |
|||||
Month |
Average Price |
Number of Sales |
Monthly Percent Change |
Index |
|
January |
374,449 |
5,075 |
-0.47496784 |
115.87789850 |
|
February |
382,048 |
6,015 |
2.02938184 |
118.22950353 |
|
March |
380,338 |
6,631 |
-0.44758774 |
117.70032277 |
|
April |
398,687 |
8,762 |
4.82439304 |
123.37864895 |
|
May |
398,148 |
9,411 |
-0.13519377 |
123.21184870 |
|
June |
395,866 |
8,600 |
-0.57315370 |
122.50565543 |
|
July |
371,427 |
7,806 |
-6.17355368 |
114.94270303 |
|
August |
364,886 |
6,318 |
-1.76104591 |
112.91850926 |
|
September |
368,549 |
6,424 |
1.00387518 |
114.05207015 |
|
October |
352,974 |
5,155 |
-4.22603236 |
109.23219276 |
|
November |
368,582 |
3,640 |
4.42185543 |
114.06228241 |
|
December |
361,415 |
2,577 |
-1.94447911 |
111.84436515 |
2009 |
|||||
Month |
Average Price |
Number of Sales |
|
Monthly Percent Change |
Index |
January |
343,632 |
2,670 |
-4.92038239 |
106.34119471 |
|
February |
361,305 |
4,120 |
5.14300182 |
111.81032429 |
|
March |
362,052 |
6,171 |
0.20675053 |
112.04149272 |
|
April |
385,641 |
8,107 |
6.51536243 |
119.34140205 |
|
May |
395,609 |
9,589 |
2.58478741 |
122.42612358 |
|
June |
403,972 |
10,955 |
2.11395595 |
125.01415791 |
|
July |
395,414 |
9,967 |
-2.11846366 |
122.36577841 |
|
August |
387,921 |
8,035 |
-1.89497590 |
120.04697640 |
|
September |
406,877 |
8,196 |
4.88656195 |
125.91314627 |
|
October |
423,559 |
8,476 |
4.10001057 |
131.07559858 |
|
November |
418,460 |
7,446 |
-1.20384645 |
129.49764963 |
|
December |
411,931 |
5,541 |
-1.56024471 |
127.47716941 |
The market started off at 109 in January 2007. It was back to 109 in October 2008. That’s a flat market for 21 months. Basically, it started to rise after that.
The lowest point in that period of economic turmoil was January 2009 where the index stood at 106. Some might use that as a starting point for recovery, that is, 3 months after the stock market crash in October 2008.
The highpoint in 2007 was 123 which was reached in April. In 2009, that point was reached in June, that’s 8 months after the crash or 5 months after the lowpoint.
SARS had no effect on the Toronto market.
The 2007-2008 financial crisis took 5 months, 8 months or 14 months to recover, depending on your measurement dates:
- 5 months - January 2009 lowpoint to June 2009 (back to normal pricing)
- 8 months – October 2009 stock market crash to June 2009
- 14 months – April 2008 highpoint to June 2009
The government intervention in 2017 took 22 months for recovery.
So, the question is “how long will COVID-19 take?
Brian Madigan LL.B., Broker
