Uncertainty Abounds in the Search for Economic Recovery Timetable

By
Real Estate Agent with HomeXpress Realty SL3199320

 

Uncertainty Abounds in the Search for Economic Recovery Timetable | MyKCM

Uncertainty Abounds in the Search for Economic Recovery Timetable:  Earlier this week, we discussed how most projections from financial institutions are calling for a quick V-shaped recovery from this economic downturn, and there’s research on previous post-pandemic recoveries to support that expectation.

In addition, we noted how there are some in the business community who believe we may instead be headed for a U-shaped recovery, where the return to previous levels of economic success won’t occur until the middle of next year. Yesterday, Reuters released a poll of U.S. and European economists which revealed that most surveyed are now leaning more toward a U-shaped recovery.

Here are the results of that poll:Uncertainty Abounds in the Search for Economic Recovery Timetable | MyKCM

Why the disparity in thinking among different groups of economic experts? 

The current situation makes it extremely difficult to project the future of the economy. Analysts normally look at economic data and compare it to previous slowdowns to create their projections. This situation, however, is anything but normal.

Today, analysts must incorporate data from three different sciences into their recovery equation:

1. Business Science – How has the economy rebounded from similar slowdowns in the past?

2. Health Science – When will COVID-19 be under control? Will there be another flareup of the virus this fall?

3. Social Science – After businesses are fully operational, how long will it take American consumers to return to normal consumption patterns? (Ex: going to the movies, attending a sporting event, or flying).

The challenge of accurately combining the three sciences into a single projection has created uncertainty, and it has led to a wide range of opinions on the timing of the recovery.

Bottom Line

Right now, the vast majority of economists and analysts believe a full recovery will take anywhere from 6-18 months. No one truly knows the exact timetable, but it will be coming.

 

close

This entry hasn't been re-blogged:

Re-Blogged By Re-Blogged At
Topic:
Real Estate General Information
Tags:
rick frissell
red baron of real estate
uncertainty abounds in the search for economic recovery timetable

Post a Comment
Spam prevention
Spam prevention
Show All Comments
Rainmaker
5,830,264
Roy Kelley
Realty Group Referrals - Gaithersburg, MD

The skills of real estate professionals will be tested during the coming months. 

Apr 25, 2020 10:15 AM #1
Rainmaker
3,650,431
Michael Jacobs
Pasadena, CA
Los Angeles Pasadena 818.516.4393

Hello Rick - uncertainty is a part of life.  Am I certain about that?  Pretty, sure. Your thoughts here become a part of an ongoing discussion.  

Apr 26, 2020 05:49 AM #2
Post a Comment
Spam prevention
Show All Comments

What's the reason you're reporting this blog entry?

Are you sure you want to report this blog entry as spam?

Rainmaker
242,154

Rick Frissell

aka "The Red Baron of Real Estate"
Sign up for an In Depth Real Estate Data Reports for Free
*
*
*
*
Spam prevention

Additional Information