Has the Coronavirus Affected Your Real Estate Market?

By
Real Estate Broker/Owner with Cornerstone Business Group Inc 0225086119

Has the Coronavirus Affected Your Real Estate Market?

There is one question I hear every week, and nearly every day. Has the Coronavirus affected the local real estate market? My response is “it depends.” It depends on how you look at it, what you look at, and are the numbers sufficiently different from past markets?

April is most likely the first full month where you can see some "cause and affect" difference in numbers. Houses that closed in March were most likely contracted in late January, throughout February and into March. Houses that closed in April were likely contracted in late February, throughout March and April. The real impact may not be known until May, but there are differences in the numbers in April. The differences may surprise you.

The total real estate closings (Bright MLS statistics) for Frederick, Clarke, Warren, and Shenandoah Counties and Winchester City were 286. That does not sound like a lot. Ironically, in 2019, that number was 324. Those numbers show a 12% decrease in closings. But 2020 is a 9.6% increase over 2018, which had 261. When you factor in the first four months of 2020, the area had 1035 closings compared to 2019 at 982 closings. That is a 5.4% increase in total number of sales in the first third of the year. The difference between April 2020 closings and April 2018 closings was an 11% increase. The same period difference between 2018 and 2019 was 5.25%. You can see in those numbers, that there is a progression year to year. 

If you are looking for the impact the virus is having on local real estate between last year and this year, it depends on the numbers you look at. If it is simply comparing individual months in two separate years, it is a 12% decline over the past year, but a 5.4% increase in year to date closings over that same period.

What about properties that are pending? Is anything selling? Will that tell us anything? The number of properties under contract and pending in April 2020 were 248. April of 2019 had 243, and April of 2018 had 278. April of 2018 had better pending sales than April 2019 or April 2020. From 2018 to 2019, pending sales dropped 12.6%, but pending sales in the same month of 2019 compared to 2020 grew 2.1%. Here again, it is hard to extrapolate any real impact the virus is having on the market. May 2020 may be the true indicator of impact.

The stock market is said to climb a wall of worry. When looking at the real estate market and economic influencers, I prefer to say the real estate market climbs the staircase of certainty. When the American people finally start to worry about keeping their homes, their jobs, and their possessions, then that certainty will be shaken. If the leadership and talking heads in Washington, D C can give the people some sense of confidence that this circumstance will end soon, the markets may only feel a hiccup. If this circumstance carries in the Fall of 2020 or into 2021, this may make 2008 look like a practice run for another Great Depression. 

This post was originally posted at www.cornerstonehomesales.comHas the Coronavirus Affected the Local Real Estate Market?#mikecoopersellshomes, #cornerstonehomesales, #marketreportsandthe virus.

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Rainmaker
2,163,232
Grant Schneider
Performance Development Strategies - Armonk, NY
Your Coach Helping You Create Successful Outcomes

Good morning Mike Cooper, GRI - I agree that the level of confidence is what will count and optimism from Washington is important.

May 03, 2020 05:40 AM #1
Rainmaker
3,462,890
Nina Hollander
Coldwell Banker Realty - Charlotte, NC
Your Charlotte/Ballantyne/Waxhaw/Fort Mill Realtor

Has the virus impacted my market? Is a drop in inventory and contracts of 30% an impact? Is a drop in home showings of 50-60% an impact? Is the Pope Catholic? :)

May 03, 2020 06:02 AM #2
Rainmaker
865,826
Doug Dawes
Keller Williams Realty - Topsfield, MA - Georgetown, MA
Your Personal Realtor®

Good Morning, Mike Cooper

Inventory is at .68 months but homes are selling. Listing are down and are hard fought for yet homes are selling and people are buying. Yes, the c-19 virus has impacted our area BUT life marches on.

May 03, 2020 06:29 AM #3
Rainmaker
5,355,605
Barbara Todaro
RE/MAX Executive Realty - Franklin, MA
Marketing Agent for The Todaro Team

Good morning, Mike Cooper, GRI I think every market has taken it on the chin.... but we continue to secure listings and transactions... 

May 03, 2020 08:10 AM #4
Rainmaker
3,433,570
Will Hamm
Hamm Homes - Aurora, CO
"Where There's a Will, There's a Way!"

Hello Mike, in some area we can not show homes till May 8 and  this is part of our problem.  Hope are market gets back soon.

 

May 03, 2020 10:19 AM #5
Rainmaker
935,034
Nick Vandekar, 610-203-4543
Long & Foster Real Estate Inc 610-225-7400 - Devon, PA
Tredyffrin Easttown Realtor, Philly Main Line

Our state has been placed into a lock down related to real etstate, we are not considered essential and as such only previous sales can progress, or those handled vitrually. So we have seen a big hit to our numbers.

May 03, 2020 10:40 AM #6
Rainmaker
2,747,200
Myrl Jeffcoat
GreatWest Realty - Sacramento, CA
Greater Sacramento Real Estate Agent

Home buyers and sellers in your area will appreciate your real estate market report, Mike.  We are considered essential workers here in California, but their are restrictions in place that mandate how properties are shown.

May 03, 2020 03:27 PM #7
Rainmaker
2,747,200
Myrl Jeffcoat
GreatWest Realty - Sacramento, CA
Greater Sacramento Real Estate Agent

CONGRATULATIONS Mike, on having this blog FEATURED in the Old Farts Club group!  

May 03, 2020 03:28 PM #8
Rainmaker
1,383,922
Sheri Sperry - MCNE®
Coldwell Banker Realty - Sedona, AZ
(928) 274-7355 ~ YOUR Solutions REALTOR®

Hi Mike Cooper, GRI - Spring is super busy for AZ and Sedona. Our spring starts in winter if you get what I mean!  I agree, look at April and beyond.  I stopped doing market reports for the first quarter.  They mean nothing. 

I am seeing a lot of call volume because people want to move to Sedona and get out of their state.  We have no deaths in our county so far. Clean air, and lots of sun!  So many are re-evaluating. 

May 03, 2020 03:35 PM #9
Rainmaker
3,188,193
James Dray
Fathom Realty - Bentonville, AR
Exceptional Agents, Outstanding Results

Morning Mike.

We are down by 2.9% so far, so yes it has, but not enough to worry about

May 04, 2020 01:04 AM #10
Rainmaker
3,417,800
Richard Weeks
Dallas, TX
REALTOR®, Broker

Great information, thanks for sharing.  I hope you have a great day.  Stay safe.

May 05, 2020 03:40 AM #11
Rainmaker
1,547,972
Beth Atalay
Cam Realty and Property Management - Clermont, FL
Cam Realty of Clermont FL

Hi Mike Cooper, GRI, we will definitely see an impact, some markets more severe than others. I'm getting calls from those who are looking to move to Central FL from the NY & NJ areas, I'm curious to see what happens after the end of June.

May 05, 2020 09:54 AM #12
Rainmaker
1,012,084
Jan Green
Value Added Service, 602-620-2699 - Scottsdale, AZ
HomeSmart Elite Group, REALTOR®, EcoBroker, GREEN

Agreed!  We have a similar phenomen with year over year and total sales this year.  Good analysis!

May 13, 2020 01:48 PM #13
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Rainmaker
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Mike Cooper, GRI

Your Neighborhood Real Estate Sales Pro
Winchester has a place for you! Call me.
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