Mortgage Rates: Where they were, Now and a forecast

Mortgage and Lending with HomeBridge Financial Services (NJ) NMLS 248937



I spent an hour in a conference last week with the Chief Economist at the Mortgage Bankers association and he provided us so much information the call could have actually been Much Longer (and welcomed believe it or not)  one of the charts he shared is this one with a bit of a rate history and forecast for the next few years:

If you'd like to see a video version of this blog you can watch it here: )


rate history 1998 - 2020

As you can see we came into the year 2000 with rates in the 8's for a thirty year mortgage. People forget that 4's were not the norm for mortgages (on a side note, my own personal mortgage for my first house was 11.25%.. . Double digits were the norm when I started in this business) 

Through the boom years in the early 2000s we saw rates in the 5's and 6's.  That second gray bar is when we all experienced the credit crunch where Fed Funds dropped quickly to zero and held there into 2015.  The recent talk of Fed funds at Zero made it seem like it never happened, but as you can see here- that blue line shows it pretty clearly.  Since the Credit crunch we have had rates hold in a range mostly in the low to high 4's for a prolonged period of time.  2020 changed all of that and in March we had the biggest drop on rates any of us can remember... That drop was a very choppy ride and March caused a lot of us in the industry to go gray or lose some hair.  The first week of March dropped to the lowest rates ever and then bounced HARD - almost to 5%.  This chart doesn't show that swing very clearly here... trust me - it was a wild ride!  That last vertical line was a week ago.  Rates today are at or near all time lows for a 30yr fixed.  Just last Thursday FreddieMac reported the weekly average of 30yr mortgages were 3.24%, the lowest ever.  Today we are easily hitting that number for high quality borrowers and have even seen lower for some.  Moving forward for the next few years the MBA sees mortgage holding in the 3s, but most likely into the high 3's as the economy returns to normal and back to the 4s late 2021 into 2022. 

This is a great opportunity for buyers with more buying power than ever. For home owners - a great opportunity to consider a refi.  That sweet spot for refinances are 2017-2108 where we saw a peak in rates, but even clients that financed in 2019 may save enough to consider refinancing at today' rates.  When in doubt, it doesn't hurt to run numbers and see if you could benefit.  On average I have been saving clients a few hundred each month with one that just closed saving $460/month.

Call me for all your residential lending needs!


Robert Rauf 
Mortgage Loan Originator NMLS# 248937 
or my blog: 
Office: (732)908-4868  Cell (732)740-0175

Since 1987 I have been helping my clients fulfill their dream of home ownership! HomeBridge Financial Services, Formerly REMN, HomeBridge Financial Services is located at 9 Grand Ave, Building 2 Suite A Toms River, NJ 08753. NMLS #6521. New Jersey Licensed Lender and Mortgage Banker #L041053. Visit for more information. NJ Mortgages, New Jersey Mortgages, Mortgages in NJ, mortgage in New Jersey, Mortgages in New Jersey, Toms River NJ 08753, Toms River NJ 08755, Brick NJ 08723, Brick NJ 08724 Mortgage in Ocean County NJ, Mortgage in Monmouth County NJ, Jackson NJ 08527, Howell NJ 07731, Lacey 08731 08734, Beachwood 08722 Bayville 08721, 

Comments (2)

Michael Jacobs
Pasadena, CA
Los Angeles Pasadena 818.516.4393

Hello Robert - some information may best enjoyed in bite-sized appetizers.    

Time for breakfast.  Or is it lunch or dinner?  

May 06, 2020 09:52 AM
Robert Rauf
HomeBridge Financial Services (NJ) - Toms River, NJ

Michael Jacobs - normally I would say less is more, but my inner economist ate up the data he gave us and it was well worth the hour.  there were so many charts I'd like to share, but this one and the forecast I'm sure is info most want to see.

May 06, 2020 10:35 AM