Up...Down...Or What?

By
Real Estate Agent with Keller Williams Realty - Topsfield, MA 92593-B

Get your crystal balls out! To be honest, I try not to make predictions simply because things can change in an instant, as we are seeing with this current health crisis we find ourselves in.  In Georgetown, MA a small, historic, New England town, prices are up by roughly 5%. There is much pent up demand and in the last 2 months numbers look like this... We have 3 properties with an accepted offer (today), 13 with a signed Purchase & Sales Agreement & 17 of those have closed. Prices are up by about 5% inventory is .68 monthsThis leads us into the age-old question, seen below. 

 

Will Home Values Appreciate or Depreciate in 2020?

Will Home Values Appreciate or Depreciate in 2020?

With the housing market staggered to some degree by the health crisis the country is currently facing, some potential purchasers are questioning whether home values will be impacted. The price of any item is determined by supply as well as the market’s demand for that item.

Each month the National Association of Realtors (NAR) surveys “over 50,000 real estate practitioners about their expectations for home sales, prices and market conditions” for the REALTORS Confidence Index.

Their latest edition sheds some light on the relationship between seller traffic (supply) and buyer traffic (demand) during this pandemic.

Buyer Demand

The map below was created after asking the question: “How would you rate buyer traffic in your area?”Will Home Values Appreciate or Depreciate in 2020? | Keeping Current MattersThe darker the blue, the stronger the demand for homes is in that area. The survey shows that in 34 of the 50 U.S. states, buyer demand is now ‘strong’ and 16 of the 50 states have a ‘stable’ demand.

Seller Supply

The index also asks: “How would you rate seller traffic in your area?”Will Home Values Appreciate or Depreciate in 2020? | Keeping Current MattersAs the map above indicates, 46 states and Washington, D.C. reported ‘weak’ seller traffic, 3 states reported ‘stable’ seller traffic, and 1 state reported ‘strong’ seller traffic. This means there are far fewer homes on the market than what is needed to satisfy the needs of buyers looking for homes right now.

With demand still stronger than supply, home values should not depreciate.

What are the experts saying?

Here are the thoughts of three industry experts on the subject:

Ivy Zelman:

“We note that inventory as a percent of households sits at the lowest level ever, something we believe will limit the overall degree of home price pressure through the year.”

Mark Fleming, Chief Economist, First American:

“Housing supply remains at historically low levels, so house price growth is likely to slow, but it’s not likely to go negative.”

Freddie Mac:

“Two forces prevent a collapse in house prices. First, as we indicated in our earlier research report, U.S. housing markets face a large supply deficit. Second, population growth and pent up household formations provide a tailwind to housing demand.”

Bottom Line

Looking at these maps and listening to the experts, it seems that prices will remain stable throughout 2020. If you’re thinking about listing your home, connect with a local real estate professional who can help you capitalize on the somewhat surprising demand in the market now.

Posted by

I pray that God our Father and the Lord Jesus Christ will be kind to you and bless you with peace

2 Thessalonians 1:2

 

Doug Dawes REALTOR®, AWREP, LMC

Broker Sales Associate

KELLER WILLIAMS REALTY - Topsfield/Newburyport

49 Main Street
Topsfield, MA 01983
 978-887-3995  ~ Office
 978-270-3037  ~ Cell
 DougDawes@KW.com

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Topic:
Real Estate Market Trends
Location:
Massachusetts Essex County
Groups:
FOR SALE BY OWNER - MARKETING(FSBO)
New Hampshire - Real Estate and Life in The Granite State!
MA REALTORS
Boston Area Real Estate
Tags:
nar
national association of realtors
seller
prices
appreciation
buyer
depreciation

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Rainmaker
4,810,504
Ron and Alexandra Seigel
Napa Consultants - Carpinteria, CA
Luxury Real Estate Branding, Marketing & Strategy

Doug,

I do not listen to experts (?) and their predictions.  What I do know as a fact is that regardless of economic conditions, serious sellers sell and serious buyers buy.  As an agent or broker, what you need to do is know who is selling and who is buying and where it is happening, and put yourself in the right place at the right time...A

May 12, 2020 07:54 AM #1
Rainmaker
3,614,250
Michael Jacobs
Pasadena, CA
Los Angeles Pasadena 818.516.4393

Hello Doug - any time can be confusing when people are selling/buying real estate so when knowing the ups, downs and sideways direction of the local Georgetown Massachusetts area market are a part of the discussion, it's wise to contact you as a local professional.  

May 12, 2020 07:57 AM #2
Rainmaker
2,132,086
Grant Schneider
Performance Development Strategies - Armonk, NY
Your Coach Helping You Create Successful Outcomes

Good morning Doug Dawes - I have not seen this data before.  Thanks so much for sharing it.

May 12, 2020 08:08 AM #3
Rainmaker
3,398,219
Will Hamm
Hamm Homes - Aurora, CO
"Where There's a Will, There's a Way!"

Hello Doug,  it will be interesting to see what happens,  I am trying to get my phone to ring.

 

May 12, 2020 11:50 AM #4
Rainmaker
852,807
Doug Dawes
Keller Williams Realty - Topsfield, MA - Georgetown, MA
Your Personal Realtor®

You are so right on this Ron and Alexandra Seigel Real Estate is bought and sold in all market variables

May 13, 2020 07:26 AM #5
Rainmaker
852,807
Doug Dawes
Keller Williams Realty - Topsfield, MA - Georgetown, MA
Your Personal Realtor®

Hi Michael Jacobs 

Since yesterday

Active listings 6 (single-family)

Accepted Offers 2 (yesterday)

Under Agreement 19 (currently)

Sold 15 (2-months)

May 13, 2020 07:32 AM #6
Rainmaker
852,807
Doug Dawes
Keller Williams Realty - Topsfield, MA - Georgetown, MA
Your Personal Realtor®

Good Morning Grant Schneider KCM does a good job providing information from many sources, for us.

May 13, 2020 07:35 AM #7
Rainmaker
852,807
Doug Dawes
Keller Williams Realty - Topsfield, MA - Georgetown, MA
Your Personal Realtor®

Your phone you ring and I bet you are making others phones ring to Will Hamm 

May 13, 2020 07:36 AM #8
Rainer
17,568
lauren laski
Skye Louis Realty - Parkland, FL
Peace, Love and Real Estate. Let's find your "OM"

great post. I very much agree.

May 14, 2020 02:24 PM #9
Rainmaker
852,807
Doug Dawes
Keller Williams Realty - Topsfield, MA - Georgetown, MA
Your Personal Realtor®

Hi lauren laski thanks for stopping by. How has business been since FL began opening up?

 

May 15, 2020 07:22 AM #10
Rainmaker
1,266,789
Gene Mundt, IL/WI Mortgage Originator - FHA/VA/Conv/Jumbo/Portfolio/Refi
NMLS #216987, IL Lic. 031.0006220, WI Licensed. APMC NMLS #175656 - New Lenox, IL
708.921.6331 - 40+ yrs experience

I, like you, tend to stay away from making predictions, Doug Dawes ... that has a tendency to come back and bite you.  All we can do is share our observations and the facts and let our clients make their own decisions.  You do each well here ...

Gene 

May 15, 2020 10:36 AM #11
Rainmaker
597,655
Sally Crane
WMS - Unity, WI
Woodland appraisal support.

Thanks for the update, good to have a crystal ball for thest things, all the best to you as you get many of these properties listed and sold.

Sally

May 18, 2020 12:47 AM #12
Rainmaker
852,807
Doug Dawes
Keller Williams Realty - Topsfield, MA - Georgetown, MA
Your Personal Realtor®

Thank you Gene Mundt, IL/WI Mortgage Originator - FHA/VA/Conv/Jumbo/Portfolio/Refi 

Predictions are what they are but informed information is much more desired

May 18, 2020 02:47 AM #13
Rainmaker
852,807
Doug Dawes
Keller Williams Realty - Topsfield, MA - Georgetown, MA
Your Personal Realtor®

Hi Sally Crane 

The market is doing well here and our numbers give us a direction or a trend

May 18, 2020 02:48 AM #14
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Doug Dawes

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