Should We Be Looking at Unemployment Numbers Differently?

By
Services for Real Estate Pros with 206 715 1642 RealEstateAgent | Notary

Should We Be Looking at Unemployment Numbers Differently? | MyKCM

The New York Times recently ran an article regarding unemployment titled: Don’t Cheer Too Soon. Keep an Eye on the Core Jobless Rate. The piece suggests we should look at unemployment numbers somewhat differently. The author of the article, Jed Kolko, is a well-respected economist who is currently the Chief Economist at Indeed, the world’s largest online jobs site. Previously, he was Chief Economist and VP of Analytics at Trulia, the online real estate site.

Kolko suggests “the coronavirus pandemic has broken most economic charts and models, and all the numbers we regularly watch need a closer look.” He goes on to explain that the decline in the unemployment number reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) earlier this month was driven by a drop in temporary layoffs. If we strip those out, we’re left with what Kolko calls the core unemployment rate. Many economists have struggled with how to deal with the vast number of temporary layoffs, as a complete shutdown of the economy has never happened before. As the article states, in the last unemployment report:

“73 percent of all unemployed people said they were temporarily unemployed, which means they had a return-to-work date or they expected to return to work in six months. Before the pandemic, temporary unemployment was never more than one-quarter of total unemployment.”

The core unemployment rate handles this issue and also deals with another concern economists have discussed for years: the exclusion of the marginally attached. These are people who are available and want to work, but count as out of the labor force rather than unemployed because they haven’t searched for work in the past four weeks.

Kolko’s core rate does three things:

  1. Takes out temporary unemployment

  2. Retains the rest of the standard unemployment definition: permanent job losers, job leavers, and people returning to or entering the labor force

  3. Adds in the marginally attached

The Bad News and the Good News

Clearly, the adjustments Kolko makes dramatically impact the way we look at unemployment. The bad news is, using his core rate, there was an increase in unemployment from April to May. The conventional rate reported by the BLS showed a decrease in unemployment.

The good news is that the core rate compares more favorably to the last recession in 2008. 

 

Posted by

SEESAN, a Licensed Real Estate Agent, Commissioned Mobile Notary specializing in Trust/Estate Planning Signings and Reverse Mortgage Loan Signings for seniors. He uses his expertise, knowledge, and experience to help numerous seniors to maintain their security, independance, and dignity. He is a blogger, a seniors advocate and has many years experience in mortgage loan servicing and real estate industries and has  an MBA in business management. He loves what he does and receives much joy with the services  he provides and benefits seniors and their families receive from them. His services also help reverse mortgage lenders to improve the customer experience by offering excellent signing services. He understands the intricacies of a reverse mortgage transaction, the process, and the documents. He will be your trusted partner to build a signing experience customized for lenders' customers.

One of the primary reasons that lenders for utilizing him  is to provide a convenience to the borrower.  He  makes it possible for the borrower to sign their loan documents wherever it is most convenient for them.  This can be practically anywhere, but it is usually in the comfort of their own home.  This is especially beneficial for Reverse Mortgage borrowers. He  prints the documents, takes them to the borrower, gets the required signatures, then promptly delivers the loan documents.  He takes care of everything for the borrower as well as the lenders. And when he's not covering the reverse mortgage industry, SEESAN enjoys politics, news, movies, comics, soccer games and life with his wife.

He can be reached at seesan2002@gmail.com | cell 206 715 1642 |
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Comments (2)

Mike Frazier
Carousel Realty of Dyer County - Dyersburg, TN
Northwest Tennessee Realtor

I believe once an announcement is made concerning a preventative vaccine for the virus has been discovered the employment numbers will take off. Just the announcement should be enough catalyst.

Jun 24, 2020 06:47 AM
Seesan Ed
206 715 1642 - Bear, DE
Real Estate Referral Agent | Mobile Notary in DE

thanks  Mike

Jun 26, 2020 04:41 PM