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Have We Bottomed Out Yet?

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Real Estate Agent with Coldwell Banker-Malibu West

No one person can predict or have the guaranteed answer to this question, however, with careful analysis one can begin to make a more educated decision.  I have completed an analysis of the Malibu Real Estate market from January 1, 2008 thru May 15, 2008 to assist you in making more informed decisions when it comes to real estate.

The data I collected was broken down into the following categories:

  • Single Family Home Sales from $0 to $1.5 M
  • Single Family Home Sales from $1.5 M to $2.5 M
  • Single Family Home Sales from $2.5 M to $5 M
  • Single Family Home Sales from $5 M to $8 M
  • Single Family Home Sales above $8 M
  • Condo Sales
  • Land Sales

Single Family Home Sales from $0 to $1.5 M
There were eight (8) homes that sold between January 1, 2008 and May 15, 2008.  Five of the eight homes were mobile homes.  The Average Sales Price was $698,751 while the Median Sales Price was $687,500.  What is more interesting to note is percent decrease from the Original Sales Price to Actual Sold Price.  The Average percent decrease was 20% and the Median decrease was 24%.

Single Family Home Sales from $1.5 M to $2.5 M
There were eleven (11) homes that sold between January 1, 2008 and May 15, 2008.  None of them were mobile homes.  The Average Sales Price was $2,060,227 while the Median Sales Price was $2,100,000.  What is more interesting to note is percent decrease from the Original Sales Price to Actual Sold Price.  The Average percent decrease was 17% and the Median decrease was 18%.

Single Family Home Sales from $2.5 M to $5 M
There were eight (8) homes that sold between January 1, 2008 and May 15, 2008.  The Average Sales Price was $3,668,750 while the Median Sales Price was $3,762,500.  What is more interesting to note is percent decrease from the Original Sales Price to Actual Sold Price.  The Average percent decrease was 8% and the Median decrease was 5%.

Single Family Home Sales from $5 M to $8 M
There were six (6) homes that sold between January 1, 2008 and May 15, 2008.  The Average Sales Price was $6,213,833 while the Median Sales Price was $6,000,000.  What is more interesting to note is percent decrease from the Original Sales Price to Actual Sold Price.  The Average percent decrease was 6% and the Median decrease was 8%.

Single Family Home Sales above $8 M
There were five (5) homes that sold between January 1, 2008 and May 15, 2008.  The Average Sales Price was $15,950,000 while the Median Sales Price was $14,000,000.  What is more interesting to note is percent decrease from the Original Sales Price to Actual Sold Price.  The Average percent decrease was 20% and the Median decrease was 16%.

Condo Sales
There were eight (8) homes that sold between January 1, 2008 and May 15, 2008.  The Average Sales Price was $1,136,875 while the Median Sales Price was $1,212,500.  What is more interesting to note is percent decrease from the Original Sales Price to Actual Sold Price.  The Average percent decrease was 14% and the Median decrease was 13%.

Land Sales
There were seventeen (17) land deals that sold between January 1, 2008 and May 15, 2008.  The Average Sales Price was $1,419,529 while the Median Sales Price was $750,000.  What is more interesting to note is percent decrease from the Original Sales Price to Actual Sold Price.  The Average percent decrease was 21% and the Median decrease was 10%.

As I look at this information, several points stick out in my head for Malibu.

  • Single Family Home Average Value based on Sold Homes between $0 and $2.5 million have dropped between 17% and 20%
  • Single Family Home Average Value based on Sold Homes above $8 million have dropped 20%
  • Condo Average Value based on Sold Condos has dropped 14%
  • Land Average Value based on Sold Land has dropped 21%
  • However, Single Family Home Average Value based on Sold Homes between $2.5 and $8 million have only dropped between 6% and 8%

Buyers Moral of the Story:  If you are in the lower or higher end of the purchasing market, there are plenty of opportunities to purchase something for significantly less money than before.  As long you are in the market to hold on to the property for more than a couple of years, this is YOUR market!

Sellers Moral of the Story:  If your home is in the $2.5 to $8 Million range the average value of your home seems to be holding relatively firm.  You will most likely have a fairly strong return on your asset if you sold now.

To find out more about Malibu homes, contact me at: 310.924.4631

Here are two links below talking about the housing market:
 
The Housing Crisis Is Over - WSJ article

Money File - Nightly Business Report PBS: How Best to Buy in this Housing Market

Comments(4)

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Associate Broker Falmouth MA Cape Cod Heath Coker
https://teamcoker.robertpaul.com - Falmouth, MA
Heath Coker Berkshire Hathaway HS Robert Paul Prop

California is the hardest hit in this downturn of the real estate cycle.  When you hit bottom, we'll all be happy!  But there are good areas in the country now  -  40 of the 50 states had APPRECIATION in 2007!  see this blog 65% of US Markets had Price Appreciation in 2007!

Jun 21, 2008 03:51 AM
Janet Siderman
Coldwell Banker-Malibu West - Malibu, CA

Still in California there are very specific pockets and market areas.  Each local market is responding differently to the market.  The beach areas haven't been hit like the inland empire areas. 

Jun 21, 2008 03:59 AM
Ronald Gillis
Southwest Florida Notaries (Mortgage Notary Signing Agent) - Port Charlotte, FL
CNSA Southwest Florida. Notaries, Port Charlotte, 941-7-NOTARY

I don't think we have bottomed yet, but I think we are pretty close.  My only continued worry is when people think the market has bottomed, will there be a flood of some that pulled from the market waiting for it to hit bottom, then causing more of a drop.  I hope that does not happen!

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Jun 21, 2008 04:10 AM
Janet Siderman
Coldwell Banker-Malibu West - Malibu, CA

I think we need to remember the basic economic laws of supply and demand.  When the inventory starts to go down then prices will stabilize and begin to go up.  As long and there are sellers in the market that must sell, our inventory will still be going up and it will be a buyers market.  The trick for us is to help buyers understand that this is a very good time to buy and that over the long term they will have made a very good investment.  If people begin to buy again the inventory will go down and that might help the economy as a whole. 

Jun 21, 2008 04:47 AM