Don't Be Fooled - Check the Data and Remember the Numbers Don't Lie

By
Real Estate Agent with www.iCharlotteHomes.com | The Maxwell House Group | RE/MAX Executive | (704) 491-3310 228209

Don't Be Fooled - Check the Data and Remember the Numbers Don't Lie

 

Note that I did not call anyone a ‘fool!’ This post is a follow-up to one that I recently wrote about Bubble vs. Supply & Demand. Speaking with agents here in Charlotte area, as well as across the nation, I am surprised that there are still agents who follow the news without doing their own research.

 

Many are convinced that we are in a bubble - you know, like the one that burst in a big way back in 2008. While I was looking for some supportive documentation on this topic, I found that KCM (Keeping Current Matters) had also addressed this topic (from a totally different [national] point of view). They provided the following photo. 

 

 

Don’t be blinded by the headlines reporting year-over-year housing numbers these days, as well as the threat of a bubble burst. The consumer ‘take’ on these headlines should be with a grain of salt! The reports are of situational highlights with year-over-year jumps in our market sales. Essentially, the increases do reflect a combination of two things: somewhat depressed housing numbers during last year’s virus-related market AND the subsequent strong rebound. This will result in what will appear to be unbelievable growth.

 

The best advice that I can give you is BE SKEPTICAL when you hear news reports about the housing market. Remember, they are in the business to scare, put us on alert, etc. - they are no longer in the 'journalism' business.  When has a comforting, heart-warming story EVER led the 6:00 news?! In their defense, sensationalism and horror sell - so that extra twist is always applied.

 

I digress...

 

Now, here is the REAL scoop! First of all, we are NOT in a bubble. Simple economics is being demonstrated in our current market of low supply vs. high demand. For every pristine home that hits the market in our area in the $500K or below market, we are seeing a dozen +/- Offers. Why? We have 40 showings of the ONE house, a dozen or more buyers try their hat at bidding and winning. We all know, only one buyer can win. So, the 11+ buyers who lost out in the bidding war are back out, they are joined in force by 28 other buyers who were searching with them, along with even more new buyers - all searching for the same home. While that may not seem like the norm, I can tell you that IT IS - and a very conservative example too.

 

I recently had a home that had 40 Offers on the ONE property - that's out of 60 showings! Only one extremely lucky buyer won the honor of being the new owner of the sellers' lovely home. 59 buyers hit the road looking again... It goes on and on; the demand will continue to go on and on until we get more supply (inventory of homes on the market). 

 


 

As you can see by comparing the month of March in 2020 and 2021, even with the start of the pandemic lock-down last year, our supply was higher than it was this March. Closed sales are up simply because a LOT of cash buyers feared doom & gloom last year, walking away from deals until things were more certain. 

 

Median sales price is up 14.5% over last year this time and our inventory is down to a ½ month supply. 

*Above data provided by Canopy MLS; the information is deemed reliable but, not guaranteed.

 


 

So as demonstrated by the data above, supply & demand is driving our prices up and up with each passing month. For buyers, getting into their dream homes prior to the rise in interest rates, having to avoid signing a new lease on their current rental or putting their own homes on the market, is key. Many are finding it a challenge but, we are seeing buyers with great stamina. I had an agent present an Offer on one of my listings last week. The agent shared that they had submitted well over a dozen Offers - and their Offer wasn’t that bad at all - but, it was beaten by a more attractive bidder.

 

So, the next time you hear someone say we are in a bubble, ask them to share data that substantiates that call! They’ll give you a definition but, no CURRENT data! The data 100% supports the supply & demand economic theory - it’s textbook!

 


 

 

 

 

There are certainly going to be more sensational headlines about real estate in the coming months. However, don’t be fooled. The actual story is in the real estate DATA - local and hyper-local (your own neighborhood).

 

Want the truth? Let’s talk! (704) 491-3310. Hiring the right Realtor® is key to a successful home sale or purchase in any market - but, it is critical in today’s highly energy market.

 

© Debe Maxwell | The Maxwell House Group | RE/MAX Executive | CharlotteBroker@icloud.com | Don't Be Fooled - Check the Data and Remember the Numbers Don't Lie

Comments (46)

Debe Maxwell, CRS
www.iCharlotteHomes.com | The Maxwell House Group | RE/MAX Executive | (704) 491-3310 - Charlotte, NC
The right Charlotte REALTOR!

I had one of my best years last year too, @Carol Williams! In 2008, not so much! I did very quickly have to learn how to manage short sales so that I could keep both boys in college! The market was 100% different - only desparate buyers were out and sellers could not even dream of getting full price on their home sale.

Now, we are in a low supply - high demand housing economy - there's nothing bubblish about it AT ALL! I just don't understand those who compare speculation to supply & demand...and don't even get me started on the media...the journalism majors who are nothing more than opinionists now!

Apr 26, 2021 11:22 AM
Debe Maxwell, CRS
www.iCharlotteHomes.com | The Maxwell House Group | RE/MAX Executive | (704) 491-3310 - Charlotte, NC
The right Charlotte REALTOR!

Excellent point, @Grant Schneider! One of my assistants is trying to refinance now and is having issues qualifying. In 2007, it would have been no problem with a NINJA product!

Apr 26, 2021 11:24 AM
Debe Maxwell, CRS
www.iCharlotteHomes.com | The Maxwell House Group | RE/MAX Executive | (704) 491-3310 - Charlotte, NC
The right Charlotte REALTOR!

I'm with you 100% on that, @Kathleen Daniels. The toughest calls I have to make are to the agents whose buyers did not win my sellers' votes as to who would be the next residents of their homes. Not only that but, putting all of the Offers together in a manner that is easy on the sellers is quite time-consuming as well. I have to admit, I love every minute of that though!! The preparation and marketing...it's addictive!

Apr 26, 2021 11:27 AM
Debe Maxwell, CRS
www.iCharlotteHomes.com | The Maxwell House Group | RE/MAX Executive | (704) 491-3310 - Charlotte, NC
The right Charlotte REALTOR!

20K down to 4K is astounding, @Anna Banana! We are showing similar numbers. I worry that this is going to continue for several years. It's going to take a long time to catch up and reach that neutral market.

 

And, you're so right - those who know what they are doing, get the job DONE!

Apr 26, 2021 11:41 AM
Debe Maxwell, CRS

And, thank you so much for the Bananatude feature! heart

Apr 26, 2021 11:41 AM
Ginger Harper
Coldwell Banker Sea Coast Advantage~ Ginger Harper Real Estate Team - Southport, NC
Your Southport~Oak Island Agent~Brunswick County!

Such a clever post.  Thanks for sharing.

 

Apr 26, 2021 11:50 AM
Ed Silva
Mapleridge Realty, CT 203-206-0754 - Waterbury, CT
Central CT Real Estate Broker Serving all equally

Interest rates are low, the economy is trying to recover and people want space. Renters want space to move around and all this is driving the housing market, and it will continue this way until t does reach a stall. That will be no inventory at all.

Apr 26, 2021 12:16 PM
Hannah Williams
HomeStarr Realty - Philadelphia, PA
Expertise NE Philadelphia & Bucks 215-820-3376

Debe

One of the first things I remember learning thirty-seven years ago in the Real Estate School Supply and Demand. Plain and Simple there is no secret sauce here. 

Apr 26, 2021 02:49 PM
Dorie Dillard Austin TX
Coldwell Banker Realty ~ 512.750.6899 - Austin, TX
NW Austin ~ Canyon Creek and Spicewood/Balcones

Good evening Debe,

EXCELLENT post! The real estate market is simple economics operating in text book form! What I wouldn't give to hear some real journalism practiced. Unfortunately scare tactics are what people crave so be careful what you wish for..now that's all we have!

Apr 26, 2021 06:07 PM
Jeff Dowler, CRS
eXp Realty of California, Inc. - Carlsbad, CA
The Southern California Relocation Dude

Well said, Debe, with lots of support for all your key points. No way this is a bubble, but I guess some love to create controversy, or simply don't know what they are talking about as far as real estate is concerned and have to try and explain an unprecedented market. The numbers speak for themselves and spell out the message clearly, for those that understand supply and demand and related issues.

 

Jeff

 

Apr 26, 2021 08:28 PM
Laura Cerrano
Feng Shui Manhattan Long Island - Locust Valley, NY
Certified Feng Shui Expert, Speaker & Researcher

We can get so caught up in other stuff that we forget that 2 + 2 = 4. 

Apr 26, 2021 08:39 PM
Jim Paulson
Progressive Realty (Boise Idaho) www.Progressive-Realty.info - Boise, ID
Owner,Broker

#Truth.  They say "Figures don't lie but liars figure." so I am always sketpical on other people's numbers. I forcast the pundants will soon claim "the (real estate) sky is falling due to lower number of sales in many areas.  Upon further research, you will soon see that is probably due to a shortage of inventory, not demand!   

Apr 26, 2021 08:50 PM
Dorte Engel
RE/MAX Leading Edge - Bowie, MD
ABC - Annapolis, Bowie, Crofton & rest of Maryland

Dear Debe,

Same here. The fewest offers on a property were 3, the most 95. 20-40 is not uncommon, so no bubble in my book.

Apr 26, 2021 09:01 PM
Kris Collis, Associate Broker
Smart Way America Realty - East Stroudsburg, PA
Professional Results you Expect 570-801-5525

Excellent post Debe, this market does not resemble the events that led up to the bubble at the turn of the century that led to the 2008 crash.

In fairness to KCM, I should add their blog, This Isn’t a Bubble. It’s Simply Lack of Supply.  I posted it Apr. 23 this month.

Apr 26, 2021 10:51 PM
Joe Manausa
Joe Manausa Real Estate - Tallahassee, FL
Tallahassee Real Estate

Nice post Debe. This is the opposite of a bubble ...

Apr 27, 2021 02:59 AM
Scott Seaton Jr. Bourbonnais Kankakee IL Home Inspector
SLS Home Inspections-Bradley Bourbonnais Kankakee Manteno - Bourbonnais, IL
The Home Inspector With a Heart!

Here's to hoping the lumber market goes back to somewhat normal levels and builders can start filling in some of this huge supply gap. 

Apr 27, 2021 05:31 AM
Carla Freund
Keller Williams Preferred Realty - Raleigh, NC
Carolina Life RealEstate & Relocation 919-602-8489

Well put Debe! I agree, we're not in a bubble. People like to throw around tantalizing theories without doing the research or with no regard to facts. Our builders are saying it will be 10 years before they level out. It is really difficult to say when things will stop going up. I council my home buyers to plan for the best and prepare for the worst.

Apr 27, 2021 05:57 AM
Sharon Kowitz
CRS-SRES-ABR-GRI-E-Pro-CREN Fonville Morisey Cary, NC - Cary, NC
Cary, NC Relocation Specialist ~ Buying or Selling

Morning All, 

Great information  and true facts are what matters. We got news yesterday that Apple is building a 1,000,000 sf campus, bring 3000 people with an average of salary of 187,000 here in the Triangle ~ Raleigh- Durham and Chapel Hill NC. We have an inventory shortage like most of the country as well. Sellers who want to sell but have no where to go without selling. I am hoping builders can move faster as they are the only source of homes, buyers are not bidding for - Yes, they are paying a high price for the new construction but at least they are getting homes. 

I say best of luck to us all as Seasoned Agents who can guide our buyers and Sellers through this market. Seasoned Agents can spot things that will come up during inspections (most things) and set expectations. When in multiply offers and a buyer as to take "as is" no repair request. A Buyer needs experience on their side. 

Apr 27, 2021 06:14 AM
Eleanor Thorne
Equity Resources - Cary, NC
Equity Resources 919-649-5058

Debe we totally agree.  We also live in a State with some of the highest Inbound Relocations in the Country.  Our demand is layered with huge numbers of folks who want to live in North Carolina, which is evidenced by the increase in the Census numbers.  Great points!

Apr 27, 2021 07:41 AM
Ginger Harper
Coldwell Banker Sea Coast Advantage~ Ginger Harper Real Estate Team - Southport, NC
Your Southport~Oak Island Agent~Brunswick County!

Thanks for posting this useful information

Apr 27, 2021 08:36 AM
Erik Hiss
Keller Williams Capital Partners Realty - Worthington, OH
You can trust me for all your real estate needs!

Yes it's certainly not a 'bubble' but it's definitely a strange and somewhat eery feeling in the market. Rising prices are good, but how sustainable...will the supply and demand backfire at some point? I don't know, but have gone through 2004-08 then the crash this is certainly not the same thing. And I don't see it changing anytime soon. Gear up!

Apr 28, 2021 05:48 AM

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