Shenandoah Valley, VA Real Estate Report - Second Quarter 2021

Real Estate Broker/Owner with Cornerstone Business Group Inc 0225086119

Shenandoah Valley, VA Real Estate Report - Second Quarter 2021

The Shenandoah Valley, VA real estate report for the second quarter of 2021 is good news for local real estate. Across the valley, home sales are up 12.57% over 2020. It would be easy to assume that is due to the Covid-19 lockdowns of 2020, but 2020 home sales were up 21% over 2019. The year to date closings are even more impressive. The valley has seen a 25.5% increase in overall home sales for the first six months of 2021 when compared to 2020. 

Shenandoah Valley, VA Real Estate Report - Second Quarter 2021: Average Sales Price

The average home sale is a three bedroom two bath home. The average sales price for a 3 bedroom / 2 bath home was $326000 over the four county / 1 city market. That's a 17.3% jump over the same period in 2020. If that number if broken down by locality, Frederick County saw a 9.4% rise in average home sale prices ($299000 in 2020 - $327000 in 2021). Clarke County saw no year to year change in the number of homes sold in the second quarter (65), but it did see a 10.8% increase in average home sale prices from $398000 in 2020 to $441000 in 2021. Winchester City saw a 17% rise in average home sale prices from $239000 to $280000 in the second quarter. Warren County had a significant rise in average home sale prices with a 26.85% increase over 2020 from $257000 to $326000. The most outstanding increase happened in Shenandoah County, VA. Shenandoah County's average home sale price increased a whopping 31.9% year to year. The average home sale price in Shenandoah County, VA was $310000 as compared to $235000 in 2020.

Shenandoah Valley, VA Real Estate Report - Second Quarter 2021: Sales Price Over Original List Price

The second quarter real estate market has seen another significant change from 2020. The number of homes selling over the original list price is up 58.98%. Those homes sold in 0-30 days. Homes are selling higher and faster in the current market, and that is good news for sellers. Clarke County dominated this category of home sales. In the 0-30 bracket, Clarke County saw 102.69% increase in sales price over list price. Clarke was followed by Warren County which saw a 102.02% over original list price. Frederick County saw a 101.46% over the original list price and Shenandoah County, VA saw a 100.8% sales price over the original list price. Winchester City brings up the rear at 100.49% over list. No matter where a community is in the five areas, they all saw a higher sales prices over the original list price in the 0-30 days on the market category. Again, that is good news for sellers. 

Shenandoah Valley, VA Real Estate Report - Second Quarter 2021: The 800 pound gorilla in the market.

The ongoing shortage of available  inventory makes homes more valuable to buyers looking to move in the near to immediate future. Total inventory for the valley at the beginning of July 2021 is 560 available homes, but that number is a little deceiving. If the "new builds" are removed the number falls to 395.

Buyers who need to move in the near to immediate future are struggling to win bidding wars with other buyers. That causes many buyers who also need to sell a home hesitant to put their home on the market for fear of not being able to locate a home to move to. The 560 homes listed in early July includes 165 homes that are to be built. A "to-be-built" home is a 90-120 day wait from the initial beginning of construction. Many buyers do not have the luxury of time to make a move. Inventory shortages have been plaguing the valley since 2017.

Each locality has its own healthy balance between available properties and buyers. For instance, the Winchester / Frederick County, VA market is healthiest at 500-600 available properties. From a historical perspective, this market has gone from a buyer's market to a balanced market to a seller's market since the market collapse of 2008. The shifts are seen in available properties and available buyers throughout that time period. In May 2012, the market averaged 513 properties. Buyers and sellers were on par and an advantage was hard to find for either side. Negotiation became the rule of the day. By May 2014, buyers began to gain an advantage when the average of available homes was 658. That number jumped to 796 by August 2014, and the advantage stayed on the buyer's side through 2015. 

January 2016 saw a drop in available homes as more builders moved into the area and began to offer new homes in that 90-120 day build range. It is hard to count those homes as part of the inventory knowing that they could be three to four months before a buyer could take possession. Homebuyers who could wait through the build process chose to wait to list their homes and market inventory dropped from a high of 735 in November 2015 to 518 in January 2016. Throughout 2016, the balanced market returned, but 2017 started a new trend. By December of 2017, home availability in the Winchester / Frederick County, VA market had declined to 254 of currently built homes. That trend has not deviated since its early beginnings in August 2017. Today, in July 2021, there are 209 active listings in Winchester / Frederick County. Combine the "coming soon" and available listings brings the Winchester / Frederick Co., inventory to 225. Now, compare that to the valley from Shenandoah County to the West Virginia line north of Frederick County and the Winchester / Frederick County inventory makes up 57% of all available listings in the five locality market. The market is firmly in the hands of sellers with no trend changes visible in the immediate future. 

The old adage, "knowledge is power" applies to most areas of life. That is certainly true in the real estate market. If a buyer, or seller is aware of how the market is moving, decisions and opportunities can be taken that give that individual an advantage in the market. When you are ready to list your home, give Mike Cooper a call. Mike, and Cornerstone Business Group, Inc., are you local real estate market sales pros and they can help you take advantage of the market movements no matter where the market is moving. 


This post was originally shared at; Shenandoah Valley, VA Real Estate Report - Second Quarter 2021


Comments (2)

Grant Schneider
Performance Development Strategies - Armonk, NY
Your Coach Helping You Create Successful Outcomes

Good morning Mike - the supply and demand story, I think, is pushing the prices and the sales.

Jul 13, 2021 09:20 AM
Mike Cooper, Broker VA,WV, MD

It sure has been a challenge here locally. 

Jul 13, 2021 09:39 AM
Will Hamm
Hamm Homes - Aurora, CO
"Where There's a Will, There's a Way!"

Hello Mike and thanks for sharing this great information with us here in the Rain.  Make it a great day!

Jul 13, 2021 09:59 AM