Is the sky falling in real estate? why ask me?

By
Real Estate Broker/Owner with Lane Realty Eatonton, GA Lake Sinclair, Milledgeville, 706-485-9668 GREC# 169695

Who am I to have an opinion on "what is going to happen in this market"?  Well, earlier this month I passed my 29th anniversary in the business.  I've seen my share of ups, downs, adminstrations, stock market swings etc. 

So what do I predict?  And why?

 

Do I think we're in a bubble and going to crash?  No.  However I don't think this level of growth in price can/ will be substained.  But I think inventory is creeping back up and prices will level to a normal pattern of growth better than the 24% average we've seen nationwide in the past 18 months. 

 

Everyone is talking about the "moratorium ending" and all this flood of houses to market causing a crash.  Well in June when I read an article (with moratorium ending)  there were 2.1 million homewoners behind on their mortgages.  Many more million people not paying rent and facing foreclosure. However the government kicked the can down the road, they are good at that.

 

Now here we are 30 days later and the latest article I find with the numbers I was looking for was this fortune article (sorry the end is behind a pay wall) (something big is about to happen)  And in approximately 30 days the number of people facing foreclosure dropped from 2.1 million to 1.7 million. That means 700,000 people caught up on their mortage in the last 30 days.  Hopefully in the next 60 days more and more will do the same and frankly I don't know if a single state where foreclosure can happen in less than 60 days.  

 

And poor landlords with renters they haven't been able to evict who were not paying their rent.  And no, I don't have a lot of sympathy for people who were getting hundreds of dollars in unemployment a week and still not paying ANY of their rent and leaving their landlord out to dry. But I'm getting off topic, so let me get back to real estate.

 

So while I don't have a crystal ball and I cannot predict the future, my crystal  egg and I think that we're all gonna be okay.  The market won't be crashing, perhaps it will be stablizing with a few more homes coming to market.  We're about double the amount of Lake Sinclair listings available that were on the market 30 days ago.  I hear a lot of people say they are selling "before the market goes down" and I expect it might "settle a little", but I don't expect we'll ever get back to the prices of 2012 in my market. 

 

In the end, we all as professionals have to just be prepared for a shift, any shift, price, inventory, loan structures etc.  So while I don't predict we're in for a crash, I expect inventory to get stable, prices to back off from highs and interest rates to rise.  I'll visit this post again next year and see if I was right. 

 

Comments (9)

Ron and Alexandra Seigel
Napa Consultants - Carpinteria, CA
Luxury Real Estate Branding, Marketing & Strategy

Tammy,

It is wonderful to read your perspective on the current market.  None of us have a crystal ball, but whatever happens, we will all adapt.  A

Jul 31, 2021 02:46 PM
Patricia Feager, MBA, CRS, GRI,MRP
DFW FINE PROPERTIES - Flower Mound, TX
Selling Homes Changing Lives

Tammy Lankford, - Respectfully, I like your blog post and positive attitude. Preparation is always key when it comes to real estate. As for the crystals and clairvoyance, I'm not a believer either. From your perspective, I really appreciate mostly, your honesty. 

Jul 31, 2021 04:05 PM
Pat Starnes-Front Gate Realty
Front Gate Real Estate - Brandon, MS
601-991-2900 Office; 601-278-4513 Cell

I'm busier than ever. Our inventory has creeped up slightly but hasn't doubled. We'll have to be ready to adjust to whatever the market brings. 

 

Jul 31, 2021 04:48 PM
Tammy Lankford,
Lane Realty Eatonton, GA Lake Sinclair, Milledgeville, 706-485-9668 - Eatonton, GA
Broker GA Lake Sinclair/Eatonton/Milledgeville

Patricia Feager, MBA, CRS, GRI,MRP I am very analytical by nature.  An account mom and an engineer dad and how could I not be?   So I tend to really track numbers, prices, leads, and follow the numbers.... all while putting my focus on the relationships vs. the data.  There's a line you can't cross where you forget this is a people business even when you analyze everything. 

Jul 31, 2021 09:02 PM
Richard Weeks
Dallas, TX
REALTOR®, Broker

Great information, thanks for sharing.  I hope you have a great day.

Aug 01, 2021 12:40 AM
Michael Jacobs
Pasadena, CA
Los Angeles Pasadena 818.516.4393

Hello Tammy - first, congratulations on your recent business anniversary.  And second, that real estate experience includes a lot of different situations.  Circumstances too.  And it's quite valuable to wannabe sellers and buyers.  Thirdly, while you may not have a crystal ball ready for predictions, the examples you share show you have a clear view of the market.  

Aug 01, 2021 02:07 AM
Brian England
Vacasa - Gilbert, AZ
MBA, GRI, REALTOR® Real Estate in East Valley AZ

That is what I have been telling people as well, I highly doubt the market is going to crash, and most likely it will level off.

Aug 01, 2021 05:49 AM
Roy Kelley
Realty Group Referrals - Gaithersburg, MD

Good Tuesday morning, Tammy.

Take care, be safe and have a productive August.

Aug 03, 2021 05:15 AM
Roy Kelley
Realty Group Referrals - Gaithersburg, MD

I hope you are having a very productive month.

Enjoy the weekend.

Aug 28, 2021 08:13 AM