Shenandoah Valley, VA Third Quarter Real Estate Report – 2021
The Shenandoah Valley, VA real estate market is a mixture of ups and downs that might make it hard for even the brightest data nerd to interpret. The valley incorporates Winchester City, Frederick County, Clarke County, Warren County and Shenandoah County. The Winchester/Frederick County market is the largest in terms of sales of these five localities.
Shenandoah Valley, VA Third Quarter Real Estate Report 2021 - Volume Down
Winchester/Frederick Co., saw 666 home sales compared to 740 during the same period in 2020. That is a -10% decline in overall sales. Of the five localities, each one dropped in sales over the same period in 2020. Clarke County had 76 sales July-September 2021. That is a -10% (84) drop from the same period in 2020. Shenandoah County saw 228 home sales. That is a -9% (250) drop over the same period of 2020 and Warren County saw 241 homes sales which is a -17% (291) drop from the same period in 2020.
Shenandoah Valley, VA Third Quarter Real Estate Report 2021 - Quarter to Quarter, Mostly Up
If those numbers seem like a bad trend is forming take the second and third quarters numbers under consideration. Of the five localities all but Warren County increased in sales over the previous quarter. Winchester/Frederick County saw an uptick of 8% over April-June 2021. Clarke increased 18.8%, and Shenandoah County saw an increase of 23%. Warren County did see a dip of -17% over April-June 2021. The theory that the Spring quarter is the hottest quarter each year for home sales can be debated based upon these numbers. The Summer quarters were stronger in four of these five localities.
Shenandoah Valley, VA Third Quarter Real Estate Report 2021 - Inventory Woes Continue
The 800-pound gorilla in the room has been the lack of readily available inventory since August 2017. The Winchester/Frederick County market currently has 230 homes available. If the “to be built” homes are removed from the overall number, there are 149 available homes on the market. The 2021 market has been brutal for many buyers. Multiple offers, bidding wars, cash buyers, no contingency offers, and a great deal of frustration have been the most prevalent characteristics of the 2021 market. The Winchester/Frederick County market thrives at 500-600 available homes. Based on availability, the market is down -70% from the desired number of readily available homes that keep the market moving steadily. The current inventory is .70, or less than one month of necessary inventory.
Shenandoah Valley, VA Third Quarter Real Estate Report 2021 - Average Sales Price
The average home sale price for the five localities also increased in 2021 over the same period in 2020. Winchester/Frederick County increased 15% from $325000 to $373000. Winchester/Frederick County VA was the lowest percentage increase. The highest increase in the five localities was Warren County with a 21% increase over 2020. The average home sale went from $305000 in the third quarter 2020 to $369000 in 2021. Clarke County increased 17% from $492000 to $575000 and Shenandoah County increased 18.75% from $240000 to $285000.
Year to year the number of home sales in these localities are down but increases in home sale prices are up and quarter over quarter volume sales are up in four of five localities. It would be hard to say the market is steady or unsteady. World events, D. C. policy changes, availability of currently built homes and a host of other things impact any local market. The Shenandoah Valley is no different. It is said that stocks climb a wall of worry, but real estate is different in that it climbs the staircase of certainty. When things are uncertain, such as inventory, interest rates, employment, material available, political changes and overall economic conditions, things can change quickly.
The Shenandoah Valley real estate market is climbing that staircase of certainty, but it is doing so tentatively. First-time buyers and buyers with government backed loans are feeling the brunt of the local market challenges. Conventional financing and cash are more attractive to sellers when the markets show any signs of uncertainty or are pulling back.
Regardless of local real estate market challenges, Cornerstone Business Group, Inc., is right her to help you navigate the current shifting waves. Give us a call for your home selling / buying needs. Call @888-722-6029, and let's make some great happen.
This post was originally posted at cornerstonehomesales.com: Shenandoah Valley, VA Third Quarter Real Estate Report – 2021