Weekly Rate Watch 11/29/2021

By
Mortgage and Lending with Finance Of America NMLS #311662

In the News 

Last week we had inflation numbers come out. Prices, excluding food and energy, rose 4.1% from a year ago. Then, according to a report from CNBC, Inflation continued to be reflected most in surging energy costs, which rose 30.2% from a year ago, while food prices increased 4.8% during the span. Services inflation gained 6.3%, the same as in September, while goods inflation jumped 7.3%, up from the 6.4% pace in the previous month. No wonder gas is so expensive… 

Also we had an amazing “breather” day on Friday from new fears of a Covid variant, Omicron. Normally an event like this causes people to dash to cash. This time, however, people flocked to the “safety” of bonds, which was good for rates. I’ll be focusing on how this story unfolds but expect lower rates if these variant fears begin to build/run. It’s important to learn from history too. Last time, economy shut down, travel bans in place, money printed like crazy, Fed increased their monthly bond purchases. 

Here is what’s in the news for this week: 

Monday

  • We get a glimpse at the housing market with pending home sales 

Thursday

  • Jobless claims 

Friday

  • Unemployment numbers 

Chart Check 

You can see that even though we had a nice breather day last Friday, we are still in the downtrend channel. This is a 3 week channel and I expect it to continue until we can carve out a strong bottom/support line. Ideally, we see a retest of the lows set last week and then bounce off – like a “W” pattern.

 

If we can break the upper channel trend line, then we will see some short term relief. Long term, views haven’t changed. Fed is printing money, inflation is running rampant, tapering of bonds, that all equates to higher rates. It will take another “event” (think Covid, wars, opening of supply chains) to give us lower rates in the longer term viewpoint. I’m securing my rates with locking when I can and educating my clients with the info above. These are unprecedented times and our clients need to know that they can trust us during these volatile and uncertain times.

Lastly, I have had wonderful feedback from a lot of you with regards to this weekly newsletter. I want you to know that your kind words are VERY appreciated. Some of you have asked if you can use my emails to send out to your clients, agents, referral partners, etc.  ABSOLUTELY you can!! My primary goal with this newsletter is to add (even the slightest bit of) value to you, your team, and your clients.

 

Please feel free to reach out with any questions with regards to rate and my thoughts on them. I’m always here to help!

Posted by

Matt Brady

Builder Sales Manager, NMLS ID#311662

(858)342-8659 cell |844-268-1952 fax

mabrady@financeofamerica.comfamadvisor.com/matthewbrady   
8885 Rio San Diego Dr │ Suite 201  San Diego, CA 92108     

 

BIA SanDiego 19 year Member and P2 Sponsor

 

BIA SMCBoard Member since 2012

 

 

 

 

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