The Fed said how they will increase their tapering and have 3 rate hikes next year. The market actually reacted well to the news. I believe it reacted well because we finally have some sort of “plan” in play. I find it hard to believe, however, that the Fed will raise rates 3 times. I think they may raise it once, see the turmoil that ensues, and then decide to forego the other 2 rate hikes and possibly cut rates again. Remember when they raised them around this time in 2018 and we had the worst crash on Christmas Eve to date? The Fed needs to be seen as doing something to combat inflation, but business may come to halt and many will default on their debt repayments with an increase in rates. The solution will be the Keynesian way of keeping the money printer on. I am preparing my long-term investments for currency debasement and higher inflation.
Here is what is coming up for the short week
- Existing Home Sales
- Any revisions to GDP
- Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims
- Core inflation (monthly)
- Core inflation YOY
- New Home Sales
- 5 year inflation expectations
Thursday is a big day. We get jobs numbers, home sales, and inflation. Inflation will be the big one that will/can affect rates. Like last week, take advantage of any breather days you get in pricing. Floating is a dangerous game right now for your purchases, but you may have some leeway with your refinances to wait for those breather days. What I’m doing with my borrowers is being upfront about the environment we are in, letting them know what we can lock in today, and then having a +/- scenario with rates. For example, if they are at a 3.25% today but aren’t excited about it, we may have a .125 +/- so that way I know to lock them in at 3.125% or 3.375%, depending on how the market moves. Always need to have a game plan in place.
We have broken the upper resistance line in this falling wedge. Falling wedges are bullish patterns. This one has been created over the past month, so it is still a short-term indicator. This goes hand in hand with the double bottom formation I was looking for earlier for some short-term relief.
We may have a few good days ahead with rates. Long term my outlook hasn’t changed as it is heavily influenced by monetary and fiscal policies.
That’s it for now. As always, please feel free to reach out anytime.