Rate Watch Roller Coaster

Mortgage and Lending with Watermark Capital NMLS #311662

“We’re likely to see another year in which 12-month inflation numbers remain uncomfortably high.” – US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen


I expect massive volatility this week as the war with Russia and Ukraine continues. A few stories have developed this past weekend.

  1. Russia has asked China for assistance with military equipment and aid, along with economic purposes. If China agrees to support Russia, expect mass market volatility.


“We are communicating directly, privately to Beijing that there will absolutely be consequences for large-scale sanctions evasion efforts or support to Russia to backfill them” – Jake Sullivan, White House National Security Advisor


  1. Iran led a missile attack that struck Erbil, Iraq near the US consulate.


These stories are currently unfolding. If investors rush to cash, all markets suffer. If the bond market is seen as a safe haven, that will be good for mortgage rates.


Focusing on the US economy, we have a lot going on this week. Inflation numbers, Fed Meeting (With an expected rate hike of 0.25), Housing numbers and some employment numbers.


In The News



  • 1 year and 3-year inflation expectations



  • Produce Price Index
  • Start of Fed Meeting



  • Fed Meeting Ends
  • Fed Chairman Powell Speaks



  • Initial and continuing jobless claims
  • Building permits
  • Housing starts



  • Existing home sales


With CPI (consumer inflation) reaching 7.9% last week with no signs of slowing, I expect inflation to be high on the producer side of things too.


The Fed will let us know if they follow through on the .25 rate hike. What I think is more important (in terms of market reaction) is hearing what the Fed “expects” and “plans” to do in the future.


Chart Check


From a technical perspective, we are in a free fall. Any possibility of a support level is getting blown away with geopolitical news, and I fear it’s not done yet. (See above)




My stance on rates hasn’t changed. I’m not floating. I am educating my clients on the global environment we are in, how that affects the stock market and bond markets which directly (or inversely) affects our interest rates. I tell my clients how I think higher rates are a ticking time bomb for the high percentage of “Zombie” companies that cannot afford the interest payments on their debts. Because of that, the fed will eventually have to lower rates again (as mentioned in previous newsletters, probably just in time for the Biden administration to ramp up re-election campaigns) and we will have another low rate environment.

Posted by

Matt Brady

Branch Manager, NMLS ID#311662

(858)342-8659 cell |

8885 Rio San Diego Dr │ Suite 201  San Diego, CA 92108     


BIA SanDiego 19 year Member and P2 Sponsor


BIA SMCBoard Member since 2012





Comments (19)

Will Hamm
Hamm Homes - Aurora, CO
"Where There's a Will, There's a Way!"

Hello Matt and thanks for sharing this interesting blog with us here in the Rain.  Make it a great day.  Almost at 500,000 points!

Mar 14, 2022 09:30 AM
Matt Brady

Thanks Will Hamm, I would never have thought I would get to 500K

Mar 14, 2022 11:10 AM
Wanda Kubat-Nerdin - Wanda Can!
Red Rock Real Estate (435) 632-9374 - St. George, UT
St. George Utah Area Residential Sales Agent

All eyes are on the heinous power grab happening right now Matt, while flimsy excuses are being made for inflation hitting a 40 year high and outrageous gas prices. For those just making it month-to-month this will hurt them greatly.

Thank you for the post, it is very telling!

Mar 14, 2022 10:21 AM
Matt Brady

 Hi Wanda Kubat-Nerdin It is sad to think that some of the policies that have led us to this point could be intentional, and without regard to the harm they are doing to the middle class and the poor.

Mar 14, 2022 11:30 AM
Ray Henson
eXp Realty of California, Inc. (lic. #01878277) - Elk Grove, CA

Too many dollars chasing too few items and ultra low interest rates are a difficult situation to slow down and then to have a major invasion of the Ukraine makes for even more worries.  It will be interesting to see how the Fed handles the situation.

Mar 14, 2022 10:30 AM
Matt Brady

Good question Raymond Henson. The problem is they have allowed a runaway train to get started and the tools they have availabl amount to a manual parking brake on a 1965 VW bug.

Mar 14, 2022 11:33 AM
Kathy Streib
Cypress, TX
Home Stager/Redesign

Hi Matt- I'll be interested in hearing what the Fed Chairman will say on Wednesday. I also came over from Will Hamm's suggestion. Hope we get you over 500K. 

Mar 14, 2022 10:46 AM
Matt Brady

Thank you for your good wishes Kathy Streib!

Mar 14, 2022 11:34 AM
Doug Dawes
Keller Williams Evolution - 447 Boston Street Topsfield, MA - Georgetown, MA
Your Personal Realtor®

Hi Matt Brady 

It is an uncertain time we live in and interest rates will be rising THEN I bet the Fed has to lower them again. Roller Coater is the right word

Mar 14, 2022 11:59 AM
Matt Brady

Hi Doug Dawes, Unfortunatly it seems the driving force in out decisions are largely based on when the next election is being held.

Mar 14, 2022 01:50 PM
Rocky Dickerson
Realty One Group - Las Vegas, NV
Superior Service!

Hello Matt! Yes, I think the big news is all about the Fed. I remember the last time was this high and we sold houses with 15% mortgages

Mar 14, 2022 12:39 PM
Matt Brady

Hi Rocky Dickerson, I remember back in the savings and loan days when Carter was president, and rates got over 20%.

Mar 14, 2022 01:51 PM
Roy Kelley
Retired - Gaithersburg, MD

Thank you very much for sharing this report. 

Have a productive month.

Mar 14, 2022 01:43 PM
Matt Brady

Thanks for reading Roy Kelley!

Mar 14, 2022 01:52 PM
Wayne Martin
Wayne M Martin - Chicago, IL
Real Estate Broker - Retired

Good morning Matt. On behalf of Will Hamm I am here to offer my help in getting you to 500,000 points on the express route. As for rates, they will go up as long as we have the current incompetent leadership in Washington. So people shouldn't complain as they suffer, they elected the fellow. Enjoy your day.

Mar 15, 2022 04:18 AM
Buzz Mackintosh
Mackintosh REALTORS - Frederick, MD
“Experience, reliable, leadership”

With so much going on in the world it looks like it could be a pretty scary roller coaster ride for the foreseeable future.

Mar 15, 2022 04:19 AM
Kat Palmiotti
406-270-3667, kat@thehousekat.com, Broker/REALTOR® - Kalispell, MT
Helping your Montana dreams take root

Good morning. It will be interesting to see what happens this week.

Here are a few more points towards your 500K!

Mar 15, 2022 05:02 AM
Brian England
Arizona Focus Realty - Gilbert, AZ
MBA, GRI, REALTOR® Real Estate in East Valley AZ

Will Hamm asked me to stop by and help you get to the level where your account is free, congrats to you, almost there.  I will keep an eye out for posts of yours in the future and maybe you will even check out a few of mine too.

Mar 15, 2022 05:50 AM
Matt Brady

Hi Will, thanks for your support. I followed you as well.

Mar 15, 2022 04:10 PM
Carla Freund
Keller Williams Preferred Realty - Raleigh, NC
Carolina Life RealEstate & Relocation 919-602-8489

We're living in crazy times. It will be interesting to see how things unfold.

Mar 15, 2022 06:27 AM
Carol Williams
Although I'm retired, I love sharing my knowledge and learning from other real estate industry professionals. - Wenatchee, WA
Retired Agent / Broker / Property Manager

Hi Matt,
This situation is giving me flashbacks.

Mar 15, 2022 07:07 AM
Matt Brady

Hi Carol, I never thought we would see this again with the ability to show what is happening in real-time.

Mar 15, 2022 04:11 PM
Jeff Dowler, CRS
eXp Realty of California, Inc. - Carlsbad, CA
The Southern California Relocation Dude

Wednesday and what follows  should certainly be interesting, don't you think?


Mar 15, 2022 08:53 AM
Matt Brady

Hi Jeff, my crystal ball used to be much more accurate than it is now.

Mar 15, 2022 04:12 PM
Tammy Lankford,
Lane Realty Eatonton, GA Lake Sinclair, Milledgeville, 706-485-9668 - Eatonton, GA
Broker GA Lake Sinclair/Eatonton/Milledgeville

I am just glad that I know God is my salvation regardless of what happens in this world.

Mar 15, 2022 02:22 PM
Matt Brady

Faith is very important. pray for Ukraine. 

Mar 15, 2022 04:12 PM
Wanda Kubat-Nerdin - Wanda Can!
Red Rock Real Estate (435) 632-9374 - St. George, UT
St. George Utah Area Residential Sales Agent

You have less than 300 points to go now to 500K, Matt!

Mar 15, 2022 03:31 PM
Matt Brady

Consistancy pays off Wanda!

Mar 15, 2022 04:13 PM
Wanda Kubat-Nerdin - Wanda Can!

Yes, it sure does Matt!

Mar 15, 2022 04:30 PM
Dorte Engel
RE/MAX Leading Edge - Bowie, MD
ABC - Annapolis, Bowie, Crofton & rest of Maryland

Dear Matt,

Even before the invasion, I thought that rates will eventually come down again, once they get the inflation somewhat in check. This world event has, of course, thrown a monkey wrench into everything. I hope, there is peace soon.

Mar 19, 2022 07:01 AM
John Juarez
The Medford Real Estate Team - Fremont, CA

It is not enough of a challenge to buyers to be faced with a continued paucity of homes on the market in the face of strong demand...now rates are going to make qualifying for their dream homes even more difficult...before they enter the bidding wars.

Mar 19, 2022 03:25 PM
Matt Brady
Watermark Capital - Del Mar, CA
One of San Diego's Best Lenders

Sad but true John Juarez :(

Mar 22, 2022 08:39 PM