Rate Watch 4/11/2022

By
Mortgage and Lending with Finance Of America NMLS #311662

Chart Check (see above)

 

Don't blame the messenger

 

We continue to live in our downtrend channel. We may push the boundaries of resistance/support a little bit, but I expect the downtrend to continue for now (especially as the Fed “plans” to unload the balance sheet). I haven’t spoken about the 50 and 200 DMA in a little while but wanted to show how there is no indication of the 50 DMA (black line) crossing over the 200 DMA (blue line). Remember, when the 50 DMA crosses over the 200 DMA from below to on top, that is a bullish (lagging) indicator and we can expect the trend for lower rates to be in motion.

We have a very important start to the week with inflation numbers being reported. The median forecast for Tuesday’s CPI numbers is 8.4%. This is up from 7.9% a month ago. I personally think the number will be higher as there has nothing to suggest otherwise. The crazy thing is that 7.9% (or 8.4% forecast) is what’s being reported but the actual inflation number is arguably in the mid-teens.

 

In The News

 

Monday

 

  • 1 year inflation expectation
  • 3 year inflation expectation

 

Tuesday

 

  • Core CPI (monthly and year over year)
  • CPI (year over year)
  • Fed Gov Brainard Speaks
  • Richmond Fed President Barking Speaks

 

Thursday

 

  • Initial and continuing jobless claims
  • 5 year inflation expectations
  • Cleveland Fed President Mester Speaks
  • Philadelphia Fed President Harker Speaks

 

Next week we get a lot of housing numbers

 

I didn’t float into the weekend/Monday. I don’t see any reason for inflation to begin its decline yet and expect these inflationary numbers to surpass expectations. I hope I’m wrong.

 

That’s it for this week. Please let me know if you have any questions whatsoever and I’ll be more than happy to answer them. Or if you have any alternative ideas, I would love to dive into a deep discussion into that as well.

 

Posted by

Matt Brady

Builder Sales Manager, NMLS ID#311662

(858)342-8659 cell |844-268-1952 fax

mabrady@financeofamerica.comfamadvisor.com/matthewbrady   
8885 Rio San Diego Dr │ Suite 201  San Diego, CA 92108     

 

BIA SanDiego 19 year Member and P2 Sponsor

 

BIA SMCBoard Member since 2012

 

 

 

 

Comments (1)

Debe Maxwell, CRS
www.iCharlotteHomes.com | The Maxwell House Group | RE/MAX Executive | (704) 491-3310 - Charlotte, NC
The right Charlotte REALTOR!

Great information for both buyers & sellers in your area Matt. Thanks for sharing!

Apr 15, 2022 01:01 PM
Matt Brady

Thanks for commenting Debe Maxwell. 60 to 75 people read my weekly blog, but no one ever comments :)

Apr 16, 2022 07:22 AM