Where have all the listings gone?

The map above illustrates each state's YoY rate of change in active listings, from January 2021 to January 2022. Unfortunately, not a single state escaped a decline in its percentage of listings, while the nation as a whole experienced a 28.45% YoY reduction in inventory.^Footnote1

As of January, Arizona and Oregon topped the list of states with the smallest negative change in listings, down 3.3% and 6.4%, respectively. Next in line was a constellation of states in the Rust Belt, where most active listings were between -13% and -21% YoY. The best performers in this region were Ohio (-13.1%) and Pennsylvania (-16.25%).^Footnote1

At the opposite extreme, Connecticut's active inventory declined by 58.3% YoY. Following in this negative ranking were Vermont (-50.7%), Florida (-49.3%), Hawaii (-48.7%) and South Carolina (-42.4%). It's also worth noting the YoY active listing changes for the remaining most populous states: California (-27.7%), Texas (-23.2%) and New York (-17.1%).^Footnote1

The apparent silver lining here is that state-to-state declines in active inventories will slow, if not begin to reverse direction, as the year progresses. According to Dr. Yun, "This year, consumers should prepare to endure some increases in mortgage rates. I also expect home prices to grow more moderately by 3% to 5% in 2022, and then similarly in 2023 as more supply reaches the market."^Footnote5

As a real estate professional, you may be heartened by the assurance of NAR President Leslie Rouda Smith, a REALTORS® herself. "We will continue to beat the drum for more inventory, which will give buyers additional options and will also help alleviate increasing costs," she says.^Footnote4 Hopefully, before the year is out, with more boomers downsizing and homebuilders responding to the glaring need, a new rebalancing will start to occur.