Where have all the listings gone?

By
Real Estate Broker/Owner with Hamm Homes
 

Over the past two years, through the pandemic, the number of active listings continued on a dramatic decline. In January 2020, there were approximately 1,033,000 active listings nationwide. This dwindled to around 571,500 listings a year later, and, by January 2022, the active listings were down to just under 409,000.Footnote2

Over this two-year period, that amounted to a whopping 60.4% decline in active inventory!Footnote3 Lawrence Yun, the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR) chief economist, put it starkly, "The inventory of homes on the market remains woefully depleted, and in fact is currently at an all-time low."Footnote4

With millions of millennials entering their home buying prime each year, it's no wonder that the added competition has helped to drive up the national median active listing price to $375,000 in January. This is up 10.3% and 25.0% year-over-year (YoY) compared to Januaries 2021 and 2020, respectively.Footnote3

How is your state faring?

The map above illustrates each state's YoY rate of change in active listings, from January 2021 to January 2022. Unfortunately, not a single state escaped a decline in its percentage of listings, while the nation as a whole experienced a 28.45% YoY reduction in inventory.Footnote1

As of January, Arizona and Oregon topped the list of states with the smallest negative change in listings, down 3.3% and 6.4%, respectively. Next in line was a constellation of states in the Rust Belt, where most active listings were between -13% and -21% YoY. The best performers in this region were Ohio (-13.1%) and Pennsylvania (-16.25%).Footnote1

At the opposite extreme, Connecticut's active inventory declined by 58.3% YoY. Following in this negative ranking were Vermont (-50.7%), Florida (-49.3%), Hawaii (-48.7%) and South Carolina (-42.4%). It's also worth noting the YoY active listing changes for the remaining most populous states: California (-27.7%), Texas (-23.2%) and New York (-17.1%).Footnote1

Will a new balance between supply and demand emerge?

The apparent silver lining here is that state-to-state declines in active inventories will slow, if not begin to reverse direction, as the year progresses. According to Dr. Yun, "This year, consumers should prepare to endure some increases in mortgage rates. I also expect home prices to grow more moderately by 3% to 5% in 2022, and then similarly in 2023 as more supply reaches the market."Footnote5

As a real estate professional, you may be heartened by the assurance of NAR President Leslie Rouda Smith, a REALTORS® herself. "We will continue to beat the drum for more inventory, which will give buyers additional options and will also help alleviate increasing costs," she says.Footnote4 Hopefully, before the year is out, with more boomers downsizing and homebuilders responding to the glaring need, a new rebalancing will start to occur.

Comments (6)

Grant Schneider
Performance Development Strategies - Armonk, NY
Your Coach Helping You Create Successful Outcomes

Hi Will - that is an interesting map but for some reason I can't see the eastern part of the map.

May 19, 2022 08:29 AM
Leanne Smith
Dirt Road Real Estate - Golden Valley, AZ
Relocation to NW AZ with elbow room & more freedom

Hmm the law of supply and demand still prevails fueled by concerns over the government policies. Thanks Will Hamm for the graphic.

May 19, 2022 08:31 AM
Will Hamm
Hamm Homes - Aurora, CO
"Where There's a Will, There's a Way!"

Sorry Grant that I only have the mid west and the west.

 

May 19, 2022 08:35 AM
Will Hamm
Hamm Homes - Aurora, CO
"Where There's a Will, There's a Way!"

Hello Leanne and Thank You for stopping by to catch this blog

 

May 19, 2022 08:36 AM
Ray Henson
eXp Realty of California, Inc. (lic. #01878277) - Elk Grove, CA
Realtor

It has simply been amazing how far inventories have fallen over the last few years.  I keep thinking it can't get any smaller and then, IT  DOES!

May 19, 2022 03:15 PM
Will Hamm
Hamm Homes - Aurora, CO
"Where There's a Will, There's a Way!"

Hello Raymond, I agree but could come back a little this summer.

 

May 19, 2022 03:34 PM