Happy 4th of July Rate Watch

Mortgage and Lending with Finance Of America NMLS #311662

Playing golf today so I’m going to keep this one short and sweet. We hear from some Fed presidents this week and receive some labor statistics.


In The News




  • Job Openings and Quits
  • FOMC Minutes




  • Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims
  • St. Louis Fed President James Bullard Speaks
  • Fed Gov. Christopher Waller Speaks at NABE Conference




  • Unemployment Rate
  • Labor Force Participation rate (ages 25-54)


That’s it for this week. Next week we get inflation/CPI data.


Chart Check(see above)


We saw buyers reenter the bond market last week as they may be placing their bets already on MoM CPI numbers showing a decline in anticipation of July 13’s report.


This is a 1 yr chart of the 30yr MBS. Notice the increased volatility and larger candle sizes of late. The second the Fed decided to shake things up, the markets responded. Everything moves on anticipating inflationary numbers and what the Fed policy will be due to it.



Inflation numbers, and therefore the CPI, are the most important data in today’s environment. After we see some declining inflationary numbers, the Fed will claim victory over taming inflation and how we’re headed back to 2% (although I think we have to deal with higher inflation for a while, unless we can “grow” out of it – tough to do with negative GDP…). I predict then the “health of the economy” indicators, such as GDP, Unemployment numbers, jobs reports, etc. will be the important ones to show we are not heading into a recession.

Posted by

Matt Brady

Builder Sales Manager, NMLS ID#311662

(858)342-8659 cell |844-268-1952 fax

8885 Rio San Diego Dr │ Suite 201  San Diego, CA 92108     


BIA SanDiego 19 year Member and P2 Sponsor


BIA SMCBoard Member since 2012





Comments (3)

Endre Barath, Jr.
Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices - Beverly Hills, CA
Realtor - Los Angeles Home Sales 310.486.1002

Happy 4th of July Matt, so how did you do on the Golf Course? Endre

Jul 04, 2022 10:02 PM
Matt Brady

Hi Endre Barath, It was not my best day on the course (84) but it was a good time, and the chili dog after was great!

Jul 05, 2022 10:02 AM
Inna Ivchenko
Barcode Properties - Encino, CA
Realtor® • GRI • HAFA • PSC Calabasas CA

Happy and safe 4th of July to all! 

Looks like you had great plans for a day:) 

Jul 05, 2022 12:00 AM
Matt Brady

Hi Inna Ivchenko, we had a great day. I hope you got to see some fireworks!

Jul 05, 2022 10:03 AM
Wayne Martin
Wayne M Martin - Chicago, IL
Real Estate Broker - Retired

Good morning Matt. Rates will continue to climb, so I hope you had a low golf score. May be the only low thing you see for some time. Enjoy your day.

Jul 05, 2022 05:53 AM
Matt Brady

Thanks Wayne Martin. Unfortunately, my golf has been a roller coaster lately and yesterday was a down day :)

Jul 05, 2022 09:52 AM