Recession = 2 Consecutive 1/4s of Negative Growth

By
Mortgage and Lending with The Federal Savings Bank/Lending in 50 states NMLS # 109616

An economic slowdown is hitting the U.S. as evidenced by recent findings from the Atlanta Fed Reserve Bank. After Gross Domestic Product (Gross Domestic Product) fell 1.6% in Q1 2022, economic growth or GDP is now forecasted to be -2.1% for Q2 2022. Currently, a recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth.CNBC reports, "GDPNow has a strong track record, and the closer we get to July 28th’s release of the initial Q2 GDP estimate, the more accurate it becomes,” wrote Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research.

CoreLogic reports that home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, rose 20.2% in May 2022 compared with May 2021. On a month-over-month basis, home prices increased by 1.8% in May 2022 compared with April. Looking ahead, monthly, CoreLogic sees a 1% gain from May 2022 to June 2022 and up 5.%% from May 2022 to June 2023. "While annual home price growth still exceeds 20%, we expect to see a rapid deceleration in the rate of growth over the coming year. Nevertheless, the normalization of overheated buying conditions should bring about more of a balance between buyers and sellers and a healthier overall housing market," said Selma Hepp, Deputy Chief Economist for CoreLogic.

The holiday-shortened week is also short on economic data but the markets will be receiving the jobs data for June and the Fed minutes from the June FOMC meeting. It is expected that employers hired 268,000 new workers last month after the addition of 390,000 in May. There are currently 11.5 million jobs available across the U.S. with about 6.5 million unemployed. Businesses continue to search for qualified workers to fill positions but if the economy falls into a recession, we may see that available job/unemployed data start to flatten.

 

U.S. economy slowing. Home price gains remain frothy. Key jobs data due out this week.

Comments (0)