All Things Real Estate: Many variables affect today’s housing market

By
Real Estate Broker/Owner with Turn Key Real Estate 31RA0874656

 

 0
All Things Real Estate: Many variables affect today’s housing market
 

Now that the real estate market in some locations has softened or severely slowed, and inventory is increasing, the question is “should I buy now or wait until prices decrease or just maybe crash like in 2008?

This will probably not occur as inventory is less than two months—in 2008 inventory was around 11 months.  However, housing construction has slowed on the fear that companies don’t want to get stuck with inventory in the future. It’s a really tough question to give an exact answer to due to all the conflicting signs and events that are going on here in the United States and around the globe.

Interest rates doubled in the last eight months (although rates were down the previous week (4.90%) and are up this week for a 15-year fixed APR to 4.97% and the 30-year fixed is 5.75% APR (previous week 5.30%, but still historically low). The continued fear of inflation, which has been the highest in 40 years (not 8.6% as the Fed conveys to us, but when you add back food and energy 18%).

Most amazing is the increase in job creation (non-farm) of 372,000 jobs in June was reported last week with a 384,000 rate in May, showing businesses are still hiring and the economy is still very strong but high inflation still is not controlled. The uncertainty of the Ukraine situation as to what the final outcome might be is also a factor, but oil prices are finally coming down below $100 a barrel (I think there is oil company gouging).

There are contradicting signs, but my professional opinion is that we are just a speck above a recession as GDP (Gross Domestic Product) decreased anywhere from 1.4%- 1.6% in the first quarter of 2022 (down from a positive increase of 6.9% from the fourth quarter of 2021). But whether we will have a soft or a much more challenging harder landing will be determined as we move forward and see the numbers that come about over the next six months.

Could we go into a depression? I hope not! This could have a potentially huge effect on housing purchases and other commodities that make our economy 70% based on consumer spending. Housing is a huge integral segment of the U.S. economy and when a home isn’t purchased, there is a domino effect as everything else that is bought for that home tends to follow suit and people slow or stop spending on those items.

Another variable that could affect our economy and housing has been raising its ugly head as the new variants of the Covid-19 pandemic, the new BA.1-BA.5 all first detected in South Africa.

With all these variables in the mix, determining where housing will go is somewhat of a crapshoot. So far inflation has not been controlled, so everything is costing more and there is less disposable income.

But if you are going to potentially live in your home for at least 7-10 years, then purchasing will still be a better bet as opposed to renting, unless you are a fantastic stock picker and can earn more playing the investment game. Rents will be escalating as more look to rent, competing for the limited current inventory. Many will be waiting on the sidelines to save more money for a down payment and to see where the market will go before jumping back in to purchase.

This winter could present some opportunities to purchase depending on the weather and if we have a substantial amount of snow, some sellers may be more motivated to leave sooner for warmer climates. They just might be a bit more negotiable in selling their homes. Inventory is still tight in the Long Island area as well as many other locations (out West it has increased two- and three-fold over the last year, as buying, has slowed drastically, especially in overvalued areas).

Although more jobs than expected have been created, you have to look at your personal finances and situation to determine will your purchase be the best decision to make for you and your family’s future. Can you consider an apartment instead of a house? Will your job or income be there in the future to support your expenditures? Can you afford the total monthly payments plus have a little extra on the side for emergencies?

You can always refinance in the future, assuming rates will come down and it will make sense in the pocketbook. If the market slows excessively, then the banks will be forced to lower their rates.  Consumers have less disposable income to spend at the moment, due to food and energy costs causing store inventories to increase so you will see sales occurring and wait until the pre-holiday sales begin, I know I can’t wait until that day comes.

Bottom line, you have to decide very carefully about home ownership, but as history has shown, it has been the number one way to build wealth in the U.S., grow roots in the community and gain life-long friendships and connections.

Comments (2)

Gregory Manns
HomeSmart Professionals Elite Group - Palm Springs / La Quinta, CA - Indio, CA
Palm Springs Area Realtor HomeSmart Professionals

Excellent very informative article Philip!

Jul 19, 2022 08:23 PM
Philip A. Raices

Hey Greg,  Appreciate the compliment. If you ever have anyone moving to or back to Long Island Consider me your "Go-To Broker."       


Philip A. Raices




Licensed Real Estate Broker Consultant



NYS Lic.#31RA0874656

Corp. Lic#109909392


 

 

C.I.P.S. (Certified International Property Specialist)


 

 

 

 

 


Turn Key Real Estate


3 Grace Ave St 180


Great Neck N. Y.  11021-2415


Mobile: (516) 647-4289


Office  : (516) 829-2205


Email: Phil@TurnKeyRealEstate.Com


 



Watch Turn Key Real Estate's Promotional Video on "Living in Great Neck" and why you should consider relocating and residing here:     




 

 

"How to Prepare Your Home Before It Goes On The Market"  Q & A Audio by Philip A. Raices for the Multiple Listing Service of Long Island W/Trisha Chirco (MLSLI.COM)

https://soundcloud.com/mlsli/how-to-prepare-your-home-before-it-goes-on-the-marke


 


Professional Building & Home Management Services
Expert Reo's, Foreclosures & Short Sales


 


Past President of the Rotary Club Of Great Neck 2011-2012


Member of M.L.S. (Multiple Listing Service)


Member of L.I.B.O.R. (Long Island Board of Realtors)


Member of the Budget & Finance Committee


Member of the Technology Committee


Member of the Advertising & Marketing Committee


Member of the International Global Committee


Member of N.Y.S.A.R. (NYS Association of Realtors)


Member of N.Y.S.A.R.'s  The Communications, Marketing & Technology Forum


Member of N.Y.S.A.R.'s Co-op Issues Working Group


 


Member of N.A.R. (National Association of Realtors)


Member of N.A.R.'s Global Alliance Committee


Member of N.A.R.'s Business Policy & Issues Committee

 


Director of the Great Neck Chamber of Commerce 1995-present


Past Director of the B.I.D. (Business District of the Village of Great Neck Plaza) 2005-2018


Past Whole Blood Platelet Donor for 15 years

Volunteer Driver for the American Cancer Association 1994-2010


“For Service, Before, During &  After The Sale”c


 


 


Hoping you, your Family, Friends and business associates a More Healthier, Safer, Happier and Lucrative end to 2021 and a Healthier, Safer, Happier and Successful 2022!


 


https://WWW.Li-RealEstate.Com (Search 30,000+ properties from Montauk through the 5 Boroughs, the U.S.A & Abroad!)


https://WWW.Long-Island-Real-Estate-Agency.Com (See & Search Condos & Coops throughout the 5 Boroughs!) (Search 38,000+ Properties Within thru 5 Boroughs, Out of State & Abroad)


https://WWW.Nassau-RealEstate.Com (See & Search Commercial Properties For Sale, Investment & Lease Here!)


https://WWW.TurnKeyRealEstate.Com (Search Residential & Commercial Rentals & Leases Here!)  


 


"Tell Us Your Needs and Wants!!!”  We’re Here To Listen and Help You in your Search to find your "Next Place to Call Home"c

 


 "List With Us and Start Packing"c


 


"Then, We'll Find or Relocate You to a New Place to Call Home, Move In, Turn the Key and Go To Work the Very Next Day, Or Go Out To Play"c


 


See our Blogs, Articles, weekly Columns, Monthly Residential and Commercial Newsletters and Bi-Monthly "American LifeStyle" Magazine In the following publications:





 

Subscribe to My weekly  printed or digital Real Estate/Business column as my 119,000+ subscribers do for $50 per year and sign up online: https://bsmoffers.com/ & receive 1 of 6 editions OR:

 

if you live in ANY OF THE other towns in Nassau where my column is published in 5 other editions go to: https://issuu.com/litmorpublishingcorp





 

Receive a 14 Day “FREE” Trial, “No Obligation”  & “No Strings Attached” of KCM (Keeping Current Matters & Gain a Competitive Advantage:   http://trykcm.com/a4197

 


To Receive our "FREE" Monthly Real Estate & Interesting Newsletters as well as Our Digital Version of OUR "American LifeStyle Magazine" GO TO: 


 


WWW.Li-RealEstate.Com and fill out the form on the right side of the main page.


 


My Reviews from Current and Past Client sellers, Purchasers & Investors: 


http://www.Li-RealEstate.Com/Reviews


https://www.trulia.com/profile/philip-raices-agent-great-neck-ny-zgf3w428/reviews 


https://www.zillow.com/profile/HouseBroker1/#reviews 


 


Interesting articles, blogs, Property Videos:


 


https://www.facebook.com/philipraices 


https://www.instagram.com/housebroker1/


https://www..twitter.com/philipraices


https://www.linkedin.com/in/philipraices


https://www.pinterest.com/housebroker1/


https://www.youtube.com/user/housebroker


https://www.activerain.com/housebroker1


 


Do Me a Favor After We Work Together and You are Happy and Satisfied With My Services to You, Please Post a Review for Me on the links below (You can copy the Google Review and paste it right into the Zillow review & the Yelp review sites; once you click on their links below: 


 If you need assistance feel free to call me anytime: (516) 647-4289


 


 


 


https://www.yelp.com/biz/turn-key-real-estate-great-neck?







 

 







 



Jul 22, 2022 09:28 AM
Mary Hutchison, SRES, ABR
Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate-Kansas City Homes - Kansas City, MO
Experienced Agent in Kansas City Metro area

Your last paragraph really summed it up.  Even if we do hit a recession and home prices dip, chances are they aren't going to drop off drastically.  Invest in real estate and eventually it will pay off handsomely!

Jul 20, 2022 01:15 PM
Philip A. Raices

Hi Mary, thanks for replying to my last blog.  I know in my town during the 2008 implosion of our market, prices declined only 5-7%, mainly because we have the top schools in NYS and throughout the U.S. and my professional opinion when it comes to purchasing it's location, location, school district!


If you know of anyone that is moving to the NY, Tri-state area and need a top-notch Professional who "shoots from the hip" Broker, and no game-playing, no "switch and bait" individual consider me your "Go To Broker."


 




Philip A. Raices


Licensed Real Estate Broker Consultant



NYS Lic.#31RA0874656

Corp. Lic#109909392


 

 

C.I.P.S. (Certified International Property Specialist)


 

 

 

 

 


Turn Key Real Estate


3 Grace Ave St 180


Great Neck N. Y.  11021-2415


Mobile: (516) 647-4289


Office  : (516) 829-2205


Email: Phil@TurnKeyRealEstate.Com


 



Watch Turn Key Real Estate's Promotional Video on "Living in Great Neck" and why you should consider relocating and residing here:     




 

 

"How to Prepare Your Home Before It Goes On The Market"  Q & A Audio by Philip A. Raices for the Multiple Listing Service of Long Island W/Trisha Chirco (MLSLI.COM)

https://soundcloud.com/mlsli/how-to-prepare-your-home-before-it-goes-on-the-marke


 


Professional Building & Home Management Services
Expert Reo's, Foreclosures & Short Sales


 


Past President of the Rotary Club Of Great Neck 2011-2012


Member of M.L.S. (Multiple Listing Service)


Member of L.I.B.O.R. (Long Island Board of Realtors)


Member of the Budget & Finance Committee


Member of the Technology Committee


Member of the Advertising & Marketing Committee


Member of the International Global Committee


Member of N.Y.S.A.R. (NYS Association of Realtors)


Member of N.Y.S.A.R.'s  The Communications, Marketing & Technology Forum


Member of N.Y.S.A.R.'s Co-op Issues Working Group


 


Member of N.A.R. (National Association of Realtors)


Member of N.A.R.'s Global Alliance Committee


Member of N.A.R.'s Business Policy & Issues Committee

 


Director of the Great Neck Chamber of Commerce 1995-present


Past Director of the B.I.D. (Business District of the Village of Great Neck Plaza) 2005-2018


Past Whole Blood Platelet Donor for 15 years

Volunteer Driver for the American Cancer Association 1994-2010


“For Service, Before, During &  After The Sale”c


 


 


Hoping you, your Family, Friends and business associates a More Healthier, Safer, Happier and Lucrative end to 2021 and a Healthier, Safer, Happier and Successful 2022!


 


https://WWW.Li-RealEstate.Com (Search 30,000+ properties from Montauk through the 5 Boroughs, the U.S.A & Abroad!)


https://WWW.Long-Island-Real-Estate-Agency.Com (See & Search Condos & Coops throughout the 5 Boroughs!) (Search 38,000+ Properties Within thru 5 Boroughs, Out of State & Abroad)


https://WWW.Nassau-RealEstate.Com (See & Search Commercial Properties For Sale, Investment & Lease Here!)


https://WWW.TurnKeyRealEstate.Com (Search Residential & Commercial Rentals & Leases Here!)  


 


"Tell Us Your Needs and Wants!!!”  We’re Here To Listen and Help You in your Search to find your "Next Place to Call Home"c

 


 "List With Us and Start Packing"c


 


"Then, We'll Find or Relocate You to a New Place to Call Home, Move In, Turn the Key and Go To Work the Very Next Day, Or Go Out To Play"c


 


See our Blogs, Articles, weekly Columns, Monthly Residential and Commercial Newsletters and Bi-Monthly "American LifeStyle" Magazine In the following publications:





 

Subscribe to My weekly  printed or digital Real Estate/Business column as my 119,000+ subscribers do for $50 per year and sign up online: https://bsmoffers.com/ & receive 1 of 6 editions OR:

 

if you live in ANY OF THE other towns in Nassau where my column is published in 5 other editions go to: https://issuu.com/litmorpublishingcorp





 

Receive a 14 Day “FREE” Trial, “No Obligation”  & “No Strings Attached” of KCM (Keeping Current Matters & Gain a Competitive Advantage:   http://trykcm.com/a4197

 


To Receive our "FREE" Monthly Real Estate & Interesting Newsletters as well as Our Digital Version of OUR "American LifeStyle Magazine" GO TO: 


 


WWW.Li-RealEstate.Com and fill out the form on the right side of the main page.


 


My Reviews from Current and Past Client sellers, Purchasers & Investors: 


http://www.Li-RealEstate.Com/Reviews


https://www.trulia.com/profile/philip-raices-agent-great-neck-ny-zgf3w428/reviews 


https://www.zillow.com/profile/HouseBroker1/#reviews 


 


Interesting articles, blogs, Property Videos:


 


https://www.facebook.com/philipraices 


https://www.instagram.com/housebroker1/


https://www..twitter.com/philipraices


https://www.linkedin.com/in/philipraices


https://www.pinterest.com/housebroker1/


https://www.youtube.com/user/housebroker


https://www.activerain.com/housebroker1


 


Do Me a Favor After We Work Together and You are Happy and Satisfied With My Services to You, Please Post a Review for Me on the links below (You can copy the Google Review and paste it right into the Zillow review & the Yelp review sites; once you click on their links below: 


 If you need assistance feel free to call me anytime: (516) 647-4289


 


 


 


https://www.yelp.com/biz/turn-key-real-estate-great-neck?







 

 







 



Jul 22, 2022 09:33 AM