I sat next to my colleague, Sheri Brummett, from my Coldwell Banker office. So much information and are looking forward to receiving the slide presentation used.
I was thrilled to be invited to the Austin Mortgage Bankers Association luncheon this past week. I always enjoy hearing Jim Gaines, the guru of housing economics, speak. He is a Research Economist with the Texas A & M Research Center and spoke on the economic climate, inflation and how the housing market is doing in Central Texas.
|Thank you, Kristin Carroll, with Sente Mortgage, for the invite. Definitely well spent time...…knowledge is power. I always love working and spending time with you!|
Jim Gaines has more than 35 years’ experience, primarily in real estate research and education, urban economics, land use analysis, development and project risk assessment.
He is a witty speaker and the gist of his message was the sky is not falling for Central Texas! We have good continued economic growth but at a slower pace. The economy has variables with the war in Ukraine, inflation and continued Pandemic issues. However, here are 9 things we know:
u Probable recession (maybe already) – Texas should fair okay
u Population – people are coming because of our availability of jobs
u Housing will be strong – seller’s market moving to more balance
u Interest rates will hold back some demand for new and existing homes
u Short supply will continue to fuel higher prices
uExtended construction time: labor and supplies more costly and short supply
u Higher gas prices may affect demand in suburbs/exurbs
u MF rents will escalate as owner housing market recedes
u Energy may feed local economics; overall not as positive statewide
u Industrial market very strong; office market slower to get back
u Retail continues to move to expand
u Hotels, restaurants and other service businesses recovering
u Land Markets doing well, prices continue upward trend but at slower rate
Major concerns Jim outlined:
u Inflation: food and fuel major factors
u Consumer activity – switch from goods to services
u Tight labor market
u Fed actions and monetary policies – uncertain results
u Lack of common cause and/or direction politically, socially, economically at all levels – divisiveness
uChina: economy and political activity
uRussian-Ukrainian war and recessionary impact on Europe
uOil and gas inventories, transmission, refining capacity and prices
There are lots of variables that can change the landscape of our economy, on a dime. I’m glad to live in Central Texas and NOT planning to hit the panic button anytime soon! We are not bullet proof but with the huge corporate relocations/investments coming to Austin, bringing so many jobs, I believe our Central Texas 2 - 5+ year prognosis is looking good!