Interest Rates, Inflation, Housing AND Wine: This weeks news.

By
Mortgage and Lending with HomeBridge Financial Services (NJ) NMLS 248937

Rates, Inflation, etc… Interest rates settled down a little in the past week or so, if you were to put it on a graph it would look flat for August with a “good” client seeing rates in the mid 5s. Just this week CPI was reported as Flat – effectively inflation at the consumer level did not increase last month but it you take out food an energy the core rate was still up slightly. This news has the markets pricing in a 50 basis point move by the Fed for September’s meeting. Rents have continued to climb, up .7% last month alone showing we still have a shortage in housing. Rates will continue to be hard to predict as economic data is released and there will be times where it is impossible to get a zero point interest rate especially on GNMA securities (FHA/VA/USDA) since the secondary market still sees early payoffs in the near future, investors do not want to buy higher rate securities- to translate: The secondary market still sees rates coming down next year significantly enough that everyone that buys in 2022 will be able to refinance.

 

Housing: While I hear a lot of talk about a “normal” market I do not feel that is the case yet. I think we are experiencing a more normal summer slow down that is amplified by low inventory. Housing is still in high demand and inventory is lower today than it was a year ago. Translation: Prices are likely to rise still. More data to back this up, Mortgage delinquencies have dropped to a 23 year low with only 2.7% 30 days past due and only 1.3% 90 days past due. Foreclosures are only at 0.3% which is a multi-decade low. We will not be getting an influx of inventory from Foreclosures.

 

WINE Movies: A different twist for my wine segment… 2 movies come to mind. First “Bottle Shock” which takes a look at Napa Valley in the 1970s and the first Judgement in Paris where multiple CA vineyards beat the French in blind tastings in France. It focuses on Chateau Montelena with Alan Rickman, Chris Pine and Bill Pullman being the major players.  Up next: Sideways with Paul Giamatti, Thomas Haden Church and Sandra Oh- Paul Giamatti’s Character single handedly killed the Merlot market in CA for years with one line in the movie: “If anyone orders Merlot, I’m Leaving. I’m not drinking any F-ing Merlot!” It also boosted Pinot Noir sales. Fun movies, especially if you like wine.

 

I’d be happy to put my 30+ years of experience to work for you 

Robert Rauf 
Mortgage Loan Originator NMLS# 248937
http://www.homebridge.com/RobertRauf 
or my blog: http://activerain.com/blogs/rrauf 
Office: (732)908-4868  Cell (732)740-0175 

RRauf@HomeBridge.com 
www.RobertRauf.com
 
 

Since 1987 I have been helping my clients fulfill their dream of home ownership! HomeBridge Financial Services, Formerly REMN, HomeBridge Financial Services is located at 9 Grand Ave, Building 2 Suite A Toms River, NJ 08753. NMLS #6521. New Jersey Licensed Lender and Mortgage Banker #L041053. Visit www.Homebridge.com or www.RobertRauf.com for more information. NJ Mortgages, New Jersey Mortgages, Mortgages in NJ, mortgage in New Jersey, Mortgages in New Jersey, Toms River NJ 08753, Toms River NJ 08755, Brick NJ 08723, Brick NJ 08724 Mortgage in Ocean County NJ, Mortgage in Monmouth County NJ, Jackson NJ 08527, Howell NJ 07731, Lacey 08731 08734, Beachwood 08722 Bayville 08721, 

Comments (2)

Dorie Dillard Austin TX
Coldwell Banker Realty ~ 512.750.6899 - Austin, TX
NW Austin ~ Canyon Creek and Spicewood/Balcones

Good evening Robert,

Good article. I agree we are experiencing a more normal summer slow down that is amplified by low inventory. Housing is still in high demand and inventory is lower today than it was a year ago!

Aug 11, 2022 04:11 PM
Robert Rauf
HomeBridge Financial Services (NJ) - Toms River, NJ

Dorie Dillard Austin TX - I keep hearing "people" say the market is switching, but we still have LOW inventory and multiple offers. Just not as many multiple offers.  It sounds like TX is similar to NJ?

Aug 12, 2022 06:22 AM