Are Housing prices Falling?

Mortgage and Lending with CMG Home Loans NMLS 248937

The Sky is NOT falling, and the bubble is not going to pop.

I have seen so much doom and gloom in the Real Estate world, and a lot of it is in the Mainstream Media.. Nothing sells better than a negative headline, and unfortunately news is a business that sells advertising.

So, are housing prices falling as some have said?  I don't see it.  We are seeing price reductions on listings, but that is because they were priced wrong to start with, not because there are not buyers out there willing to pay market price.  

Inventory is up, so prices must be going down.. Ummmm, again- look at the data yourself. Yes we have more inventory.. but it was at abysmal levels and arguably still is. Take a look at this graph of inventory for single family homes:

This is as far back as inventory data goes, but I think 40yrs is plenty of data to chew on and make a decision.  We were under 1 million units earlier this year while the average has been more than double that number.  When you dig deeper it is even worse.  Historically 25% of the Units for sale number is under contract, so technically not available.  The past year or more the under contract number has been at least 40%, meaning that 1 million unit number was really 600k available. Now look at that peak in inventory.. Remember what happened in 2008? Supply outpaced demand. We had too much inventory and not enough people to buy it. That is what popped the bubble, if you dig into the chart below you can see a leveling off and slight dip in households that caused the pop.

Now lets look at potential buyers, which are basically Households:

In 1982 there were about 83 Million households in the country and about 2.2 Million listings available

We started 2022 with over 127 Million households and have been averaging just over 1 million "available" single family homes for sale.

Supply and demand drive just about everything in the economic world. All of these households need a place to sleep at night. That is why rents have continued to climb, up 0.8% last month alone. One report from is showing rental growth slowed to a 16month low at 7.8% year over year growth.. again... not really slow- it is still more than double the rental growth we saw in early 2020.

This is why investors have been a large portion of the market the past few years. You are pretty much guaranteed to find a tenant for your rental, at top dollar.

Mortgage rates have climbed, but remember the mortgage is temporary. Here is a real life example of my first house.  I purchased it in 1989 and had a 30yr fixed rate at 11.25%, I refinanced it twice in the early 90's. First to 9.25 on a 5yr Balloon mortgage because fixed rates were still double digit, and again to another 5yr Balloon at 7.25... all three loans higher than most rates we are seeing today.  If you can afford the payment, AND you plan to keep the home for the long run, it is still a good time to buy a house and there is also a little less competition because many buyers do not read past the headlines and are afraid of rates.  You can buy the house today, begin to build YOUR equity, and refinance it in a year or two as rates settle back down.  Prices are not going to go up 20% next year, that is certain but forecasts are all showing respectable gains, and even tiny gains are better than paying a landlords mortgage. 

Bottom line: the cup isn't half empty, it is still overflowing with buyers.


If you need a Mortgage or an Equity loan, We can help- Everywhere but UT, Give me a call.

Robert Rauf 
Mortgage Loan Originator NMLS# 248937 
or my blog: 
Office: (732)908-4868  Cell (732)740-0175

Since 1987 I have been helping my clients fulfill their dream of home ownership! HomeBridge Financial Services, Formerly REMN, HomeBridge Financial Services is located at 9 Grand Ave, Building 2 Suite A Toms River, NJ 08753. NMLS #6521. New Jersey Licensed Lender and Mortgage Banker #L041053. Visit or for more information. NJ Mortgages, New Jersey Mortgages, Mortgages in NJ, mortgage in New Jersey, Mortgages in New Jersey, Toms River NJ 08753, Toms River NJ 08755, Brick NJ 08723, Brick NJ 08724 Mortgage in Ocean County NJ, Mortgage in Monmouth County NJ, Jackson NJ 08527, Howell NJ 07731, Lacey 08731 08734, Beachwood 08722 Bayville 08721, 

Comments (16)

Ray Henson
eXp Realty of California, Inc. (lic. #01878277) - Elk Grove, CA

So much of real estate is local.  In our area, prices are down over $60,000.  Our average sales price in Elk Grove has gone from $700,000 to less than $740,000 since April.  We are up slightly year over year, but that is because the average size per home is up over the year.  The average price per square foot is flat year over year.  I am hopeful that it is just an end of the year slump, but that is not what it feels like.

Oct 14, 2022 08:23 AM
Robert Rauf
CMG Home Loans - Toms River, NJ

Ray Henson absolutely local, the above is all national numbers.  But on a whole when you compare apples to apples I believe the same home purchased this time last year is worth more today, Averages and Medians dont really show the overall picture. That being said. Some people probably will end up paying more than they should have over desperation for housing... but in time that will balance out.

Oct 14, 2022 09:36 AM
Joan Cox
House to Home, Inc. - Denver Real Estate - 720-231-6373 - Denver, CO
Denver Real Estate - Selling One Home at a Time

Robert, great report, and it is true, some areas are seeing prices dropping even within a larger city.

Oct 14, 2022 09:38 AM
Robert Rauf
CMG Home Loans - Toms River, NJ

@Joan It may be a good thing if you are talking Denver... You Boomed before everyone else did!  (My daughter lives there and I was shocked how much their prices went up pre pandemic!

Oct 14, 2022 10:05 AM
Bill Salvatore - East Valley
Arizona Elite Properties - Chandler, AZ
Realtor - 602-999-0952 / em:


Enjoyed your blog page, and I added you as a friend. I would love the follow back. Bill

Oct 14, 2022 12:12 PM
Robert Rauf
CMG Home Loans - Toms River, NJ

@Bill I appreciate the follow, and the comment.

Oct 14, 2022 02:07 PM
George Souto
George Souto NMLS #65149 FHA, CHFA, VA Mortgages - Middletown, CT
Your Connecticut Mortgage Expert

Robert Rauf I keep hearing that prices are falling, but I am not seeing it around here.

Oct 14, 2022 04:21 PM
Paddy Deighan MBA JD PhD - Vail, CO
Paddy Deighan J.D. Ph.D

Quality and location sell in any business environment- people will always sell and people will always buy

Oct 14, 2022 09:16 PM
Richard Weeks
Dallas, TX
REALTOR®, Broker

Great information, thanks for sharing.  I hope you have a great day.

Oct 15, 2022 03:07 AM
Diana Dahlberg
1 Month Realty - Pleasant Prairie, WI
Real Estate in Kenosha, WI since 1994 262-308-3563

What goes up, sooner or later comes down ... and what goes down, comes back up in due time.

This is no different.  We are seeing a fluctuation and we need to stay positive, watching and educating our clients so that they are making the best decision for them.  The inventory has risen somewhat in our area, however, the buyers are sitting back more than we would like.  But there are a number of reasons:  the media is always so negative, sellers are stuck with a very low interest rate and can't break through the buying a house at the higher rates, buyers are waiting it out (?) and we as agents are ready to rock and roll!

Oct 16, 2022 10:02 AM
Mary Hutchison, SRES, ABR
Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate-Kansas City Homes - Kansas City, MO
Experienced Agent in Kansas City Metro area

To me it seems like the market is getting back to "normal" ...and it's better that way!  I don't see home prices falling drastically.

Oct 16, 2022 12:04 PM
Robert Rauf
CMG Home Loans - Toms River, NJ

Mary Hutchison, SRES, ABR I miss "normal"!  but you are right, it is getting there with sellers more willing to accept lower down payments and even the occasional concession. The past few years have been tough for my typical FTB that needs some seller help.


Oct 17, 2022 07:25 AM
Robert Rauf
CMG Home Loans - Toms River, NJ

Diana Dahlberg Education is an absolute must! and the reason for this blog to give a little behind the headlines data. and you are right. Its a tough pill for a seller to swallow, getting out of a rate in the 3s and trading it for something in the 6s can be difficult.. But we have to remind them the mortgage isnt forever, and we will likely see rates come down in the near future

Oct 17, 2022 07:28 AM
Diana Dahlberg

Robert Rauf i definitely agree!  There are so many ways to approach this and we must look at each person as unique!  

Oct 17, 2022 08:57 AM
Robert Rauf
CMG Home Loans - Toms River, NJ

Richard Weeks I hope you have a GREAT week as well!

Oct 17, 2022 07:28 AM
Robert Rauf
CMG Home Loans - Toms River, NJ

Paddy Deighan MBA JD PhD I absolutely agree.  I started in this business in a downturn as we came out of the "go go 80s" and I didn't know any better and grew my business every year. 

Oct 17, 2022 07:30 AM
Robert Rauf
CMG Home Loans - Toms River, NJ

George Souto It seems the CT market is similar to mine in NJ.  While I do think there are some that have over paid in desperation to get a house, I am pretty confident we will not see a global crash.... and the Downs I have seen are not really downs.  Price reductions just mean the sellers were shooting for the moon and didn't list with the right agent.

Oct 17, 2022 07:32 AM