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Why the Talk About A 2022 Housing Bubble is Poofy!

By
Real Estate Broker/Owner with eXp Realty LLC NM Broker License 16161

Even though the top 2022 housing market headlines predicted a crash or a housing bubble burst for 2022, I think this terrier has the right idea about bubbles...they are poofy! Without dismissing buyer and seller fears fueled by media, here are some important realities and facts from housing economists, who are typically pessimistic, to seriously consider.

  • This is not 2009 or a housing bubble 2.0. 
  • A market correction is not the same as a crash or bubble burst.
  • Historically LOW home inventory or 3,000,000 million homes short of meeting buyer demand according to Freddie Mac estimates
  • Buyer demand is still consistent and adjusting due to rapid increase in mortgage interest rates and nearly doubling of them since January 2022. 
  • Mortgage rates are substantially different today. This terrier would not qualify for even a newer dog house. Lenders are much stricter about who qualifies for a mortgage based on higher credit score and ability to pay requirements.
  • Real estate is a solid hedge against inflation. A fixed mortgage rate locks the monthly payment from rate hikes. Homeowners who buy and hold for a minimum of 10 years, can expect a gain from the sale of their house.
  • Housing foreclosures reached a peak in 2010 following the financial crisis of 2007-2009. Since then, the foreclosure rate has fallen steadily. See data from Statista Research Department here.
  • All real estate is local as is every market. Focus on local market data and not doomsday fears.  Nearly 40% of homes are still commanding the full list price according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR) in October 2022 press release.
  • The median existing home sales prices in September 2022 was $384,800, up 8.4% from September 2021, but down from a record high of $418,800 in June 2022 according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). Yes, there is a shift or market adjustment in progress.

In summary, the real estate market is shifting or softening with adjustments from past pandemic levels and current higher mortgage interest rates. It is not a housing bubble about to burst. It is a real estate market adjusting to both demand and supply and the impact of mortgage interest rates on home prices. It is still an opportunity for buyers on the move. And hello! It is also one for Sellers who have benefited from the highest level of homeowner equity in decades. 

Are you ready to learn more about the opportunities for Buyers and Sellers in the Santa Fe NM real estate market? You can search for homes and find valuable real estate information, facts and news there. Let's connect for a conversation about our market and how I can help you benefit from what's happening today in Santa Fe real estate. Call/Text 505-660-4541 for a confidential conversation or to schedule an appointment with Emily Medvec, your local licensed and experienced professional Realtor. 

Thank you for reading and/or commenting on this blog post by Emily Medvec. Image licensed from Shutterstock.

Posted by

Our Santa Fe real estate market is a local one. Search All Santa Fe Listings Here and get results in both an easy list or map search. If you want to see a SOLD sign on your property or you want to make a lifestyle change by moving here, call me at 505-660-4541 to schedule your real estate consultation. No one has time or money to waste in this new landscape of real estate online without an experienced broker working for you. I am available to make a positive difference in your real estate experience. Remember dreams are made a reality only when you act on them. Emily Medvec

Today, I represent Sellers and Buyers in all price ranges in Santa Fe and throughout northern New Mexico. My focus is to use my experience, vision and strategies to find you opportunities and solutions. My goal is always to save you time and money whether you are selling or buying any type of Santa Fe real estate, including homes, land, town homes, condominiums, ranches and commercial property. Here are recent reviews from my past clients about my know-how and service. Until you are ready to Sell or Buy Santa Fe real estate, why not dip into my site and learn more about Santa Fe. Or let's connect now or certainly learn more about each other on Linkedin or Facebook or Twitter

Emily Medvec Copyright  All Rights Reserved 2007-2023

Leanne Smith
Dirt Road Real Estate - Golden Valley, AZ
The Grit and Gratitude Agent

Outstanding points, returning to some semblance of balance is not a reason to panic.  Love the photo.

Nov 14, 2022 06:19 AM
Michael Jacobs
Pasadena, CA
Pasadena And Southern California 818.516.4393

Hello Emily - poofy, as a word, doesn't seem as prevalent as in the past.  That said, when it comes to predictions it does consistently appear.  

Nov 14, 2022 07:02 AM
Emily Medvec

Poofy could be considered a reach. It is a word relative to puffy and inflated. Michael Jacobs thanks for reading!

Nov 14, 2022 08:07 AM
Kristin Johnston - REALTOR®
RE/MAX Platinum - Waukesha, WI
Giving Back With Each Home Sold!

Great information.   Thanks for sharing and enjoy your week!

Nov 14, 2022 07:37 AM
Will Hamm
Hamm Homes - Aurora, CO
"Where There's a Will, There's a Way!"

Hello Emily and thank you for the great information to share with us here in the Rain.  Make it a great day!

 

Nov 14, 2022 08:18 AM
Emily Medvec

Hi Will Hamm thanks for stopping. Did you get snow? We did! 

Nov 14, 2022 10:20 AM
Carol Williams
Although I'm retired, I love sharing my knowledge and learning from other real estate industry professionals. - Wenatchee, WA
Retired Agent / Broker / Prop. Mgr, Wenatchee, WA

Hi Emily,
Almost nothing about the market is the same as 2007. The talking heads see a shift and they're all over the word "crash".

Nov 14, 2022 08:48 AM
Emily Medvec

What's important is we do not mimic those "talking heads" 

Nov 14, 2022 10:48 AM
Joe Jackson
Keller Williams Capital Partners Realty - Columbus, OH
Clintonville and Central Ohio Real Estate Expert

This is an excellent post with great information. Thanks for sharing it.

Have a super fantastic week!
Joe Jackson, Realtor-KWCP

Nov 14, 2022 08:53 AM
Ed Silva, 203-206-0754
Mapleridge Realty, CT 203-206-0754 - Waterbury, CT
Central CT Real Estate Broker Serving all equally

With so many areas still reporting low inventory, it certainly does not carry the thoughts of a crash. The increase in rates may have people concerned but losing a home and paying higher rents is also a concern to be addressed

Nov 14, 2022 09:27 AM
Emily Medvec

Agree about concerns and the US market overall which IMO education of both public and Realtors/Brokers is key. Thanks for commenting. BTW I attempted to name you but system would not make it posssible.

 

Nov 14, 2022 10:47 AM
Anna "Banana" Kruchten
HomeSmart Real Estate - Phoenix, AZ
602-380-4886

Our market is far different than what the national talking heads keep repeating. And it's nowhere near the bust of 07 to 10. Not close.  Those of us that lived and worked through all that and came out of it fine know this well. My advice is every broker/agent must keep abreast of their local area stats and stop listening to the rest of the crowd.

Nov 14, 2022 01:24 PM
Emily Medvec

Anna Banana Kruchten CRS, Phoenix Broker Thank you with gratitude as by making this a feature more of our members can help change the mindset of buyers and sellers!

Nov 15, 2022 08:25 AM
Carol Williams
Although I'm retired, I love sharing my knowledge and learning from other real estate industry professionals. - Wenatchee, WA
Retired Agent / Broker / Prop. Mgr, Wenatchee, WA

Congratulations. This post has been Featured in the BananaTude Group.

Nov 14, 2022 01:32 PM
Emily Medvec

Carol Williams Hi I was so excited I thanked Anna too! And the bottom line is I hope this feature will give our members the words they need to change the mindset of buyers and sellers! We have work to do! Thank you with gratitude!

Nov 15, 2022 08:26 AM
Myrl Jeffcoat
Sacramento, CA
Greater Sacramento Realtor - Retired

You outline important point, Emily.  The difference between 2008 and now, is that homebuyers have more skin in the game (more cash).  And, there's an absence of liar loans, or loans that rapidly increase monthly payments after the initial close.

Nov 14, 2022 07:34 PM
Myrl Jeffcoat
Sacramento, CA
Greater Sacramento Realtor - Retired

CONGRATULATIONS Emily, on having this blog FEATURED in the Old Farts Club group!  

Nov 14, 2022 07:35 PM
Emily Medvec

Oh Myrl Jeffcoat was a surprise from the Old Farts Club! I hope this feature will help our AR members tell the story to calm the fears and help people who are on the move! Thank you, with gratitude! 

Nov 15, 2022 08:29 AM
Grant Schneider
Performance Development Strategies - Armonk, NY
Your Coach Helping You Create Successful Outcomes

Emily - no way can a person who understands the market and supply and demand would predict a crash.

Nov 15, 2022 01:25 PM
Sam Shueh
(408) 425-1601 - San Jose, CA
mba, cdpe, reopro, pe

While it is true the mortgage interest payment is doubled than that at the beginning of the year, that consititues just a few percentages of borrowers.  Majority have very low mortgage interest rate and have affordable payments.

The unemployment is not 15% like in the past it is still as low as one can find. 

I suspect those who borrowed and can not afford higher payment should there will more job cuts in 2024, you will learn about it after 4-6 months later.  Welcome to 2024 year.

Nov 16, 2022 06:56 AM
Andrew Mooers | 207.532.6573
MOOERS REALTY - Houlton, ME
Northern Maine Real Estate-Aroostook County Broker

Super posts Emily Medvec and inventory is way down, demand still strong. Any blogger knows his/her real estate market best and too many try to sum up the nation as a whole. Weather forecasts, clothing sizes and real estate markets are not one size fits all. 

Nov 16, 2022 07:00 PM
Endre Barath, Jr.
Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices California Properties - Beverly Hills, CA
Realtor - Los Angeles Home Sales 310.486.1002

Congratulations Emily on a great post, everyone is talking about this and there are differences of opinion, all I can say is last time Land Sales stopped before the crash.... my 18 listings have slowed down a bit when it comes to inquiries... still have four in Escrow.... as things change will let you know, Endre

Nov 16, 2022 10:54 PM
Wanda Kubat-Nerdin - Wanda Can!
Red Rock Real Estate (435) 632-9374 - St. George, UT
St. George Utah Area Residential Sales Agent

Cute pic, Emily! This is a market shift and like you said, all real estate is local. Unfortunately all the so-called 'experts' on the TV or online are pushing fear among the masses. Then again, they have been doing that for some time!

Nov 18, 2022 12:31 PM