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2023 Housing Prediction..West Hawaii

Real Estate Agent with Kona Home Team (luva llc) RS 62947

Do you think the turtle has any foresight on what to expect.... 
Aloha, Lance Owens (RS) with LUVA Real Estate bringing you the latest in real estate news and now today - predictions also?
I am going to start out with past performance and dismiss all the bait/click headlines out there that tell us the sky is falling, yet by the end of the article they have provided little or no proof as to what the headlines claim, just this morning I seen one that screamed it is the worst since 1990... and at the end of the article it said house prices had fallen .3% .

Lets jump right in and look at December numbers as of 11:00 am HST 12/30/2022. Today being the last day of the year that a sale can be recorded, we are not going to see any big changes next week and I wanted to get the 2023 report out in 2022.

Single family homes (SFH)

Median Price Price today $1,125,000, thats an increase of 10.84% over last December and a 15% Year To Date (YTD) increase. It's also $72,500 higher than November... so if your neighbor told you to wait a month or two to buy a home, they just cost you $70k. I had a neighbor like that once, I actually went over and gave him one of my bank deposit slips, told him next time he felt like giving away money, to just deposit it in my account!

Now there is more than just median price to look at, what about DOM (Days On Market), what about new listings, what about inventory, what about absorption rate, what, what.

 12/2022 = 27days         
 12/2021= 29days       .... no, that's not a typo ( I checked it 18 times - lol)... surprised me too, but numbers don't lie!

Sale to Original List Price: (average)
12/2022 = 95% (highest 109%)
12/2021 = 97.4% (highest 115%)

Number of homes sold: 
12/2022 = 28 (as of this minute)
12/2021 = 58, over a 50% drop in homes sold, but wait a minute... New listings are down about 32%, so the gap is not as big as it looks, we are looking at about an 18% gap. We do know that supply and demand has a huge influence on pricing, but it gets deeper than just these numbers. Take a look at a normal market, our SFH market should have about 165 homes on the market, we only have 113 today. An absorption rate of 15-20% is a healthy number, with the lower the number making it buyers market, the higher the number making it a sellers market. I cant pull December yet, but looking at last month it was 47%, in 2021=99% . going back to a normal market in 2019 it was about 20%... So we are a long way from a normal market, but we are also a long way away from the crazy market of last year, sitting in about the middle of the 2.

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My Prediction.... If there is anything I have learned in the last 19 years of selling homes here in Kona, is to never predict the future, but to share knowledge with my clients about the past and current performance, sorry it was a little bit bait/click, but I hope you a feel a lot smarter about the current real estate market now, than before you read this. Are we slowing down - yes, it is 2008 all over again - NO. looking at the slowing sales/listings... the turtle may be making its own prediction, he is just headed towards the pool for a little cool down and relaxation ;)

Have a great New Years weekend and tell me your thoughts on the market...

Quick note, I have been selling real estate here kona full time for almost 20 years and I was around in the 2005 crazy, and the 2008-10 fall from grace and this is NOTHING like that.

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Lance Owens with the NAR report
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Aloha, and have a great day 

Lance Owens (RS)

(808) 936-8383



LUVA Real Estate 

75-240 Nani Kailua Dr #8 , Kailua Kona, HI. 96740 (Pines Plaza

Richard Weeks
Dallas, TX
REALTOR®, Broker

Great information, thanks for sharing.  I hope you have a great day.

Dec 31, 2022 04:17 AM