Have Home Values Hit Bottom?

Real Estate Agent with HomeSmart 0561240

Have Home Values Hit Bottom?

Whether you're already a homeowner or you're looking to become one, the recent headlines about home prices may leave you with more questions than answers. News stories are talking about home prices falling, and that's raising concerns about a repeat of what happened to prices in the crash in 2008.



One of the questions that's on many minds, based on those headlines, is: how much will home prices decline? But what you may not realize is expert forecasters aren't calling for a free fall in prices. In fact, if you look at the latest data, there's a case to be made that the biggest portion of month-over-month price depreciation nationally may already be behind us and even those numbers weren't significant declines on the national level. Instead of how far will they drop, the question becomes: have home values hit bottom?


Lets take a look at the latest data from several reputable industry sources (see chart below):




The chart above provides a look at the most recent reports from Case-Shiller, the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), Black Knight, and CoreLogic. It shows how, on a national scale, home values have changed month-over-month since January 2022. November and December numbers have yet to come out.


Lets focus in on what the red numbers tell us. The red numbers are the change in home values over the last four months that have been published. And if we isolate the last four months, what the data shows is, in each case, home price depreciation peaked in August.


While that doesn't guarantee home price depreciation has hit bottom, it confirms prices aren't in a free fall, and it may be an early signal that the worst is already behind us. As the numbers for November and December are released, data will be able to further validate this national trend.


Bottom Line

Home prices month-over-month have depreciated for the past four months on record, but there's a strong case to be made that the worst may be behind us. If you have questions about what's happening with home prices in our local market, lets connect.




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Comments (7)

Wayne Martin
Wayne M Martin - Chicago, IL
Real Estate Broker - Retired

Good morning Shayne. Real estate is not a rocket ship to increased value, but over time it is "up, up and away"! It is more of a journey than a single event. Enjoy your day.

Jan 28, 2023 05:01 AM
Leanne Smith
Dirt Road Real Estate - Golden Valley, AZ
Relocation to NW AZ with elbow room & more freedom

Thank you for sharing statistics which counter all the doomsday voices by others. Sometimes I think these "chicken little folks" want to see the market tumble even further for their own advantages.


May I share your statistic with our local association and my brokerage?

Jan 28, 2023 05:42 AM
Shayne Stone

Absolutely, Leanne Smith please feel welcome to share / re-blog any of my post...

Jan 28, 2023 06:41 AM
Leanne Smith

Thank you Shayne, I will definitely give credit to you.

Jan 28, 2023 08:15 AM
faye schubert
Retired - Branson, MO
Living the Branson Lake Life

The analysts I listen to say the housing market IS NOT in a freefall. 

Jan 28, 2023 07:06 AM
Kristin Johnston - REALTOR®
RE/MAX Platinum - Waukesha, WI
Giving Back With Each Home Sold!

Great post!  Thanks for sharing and enjoy your day!

Jan 28, 2023 07:36 AM
George Souto
George Souto NMLS #65149 FHA, CHFA, VA Mortgages - Middletown, CT
Your Connecticut Mortgage Expert

Shayne Stone they have not hit bottom around here yet.  They are not increasing like they did the last 2-3 years, but they are still going up at a moderate pace.

Jan 28, 2023 03:19 PM
Patricia Feager, MBA, CRS, GRI,MRP
Selling Homes Changing Lives

Shayne Stone - I would sure like to see this post of yours FEATURED. You did a great job of setting the records straight. 

Jan 28, 2023 10:27 PM
Jeff Dowler, CRS
eXp Realty of California, Inc. - Carlsbad, CA
The Southern California Relocation Dude


Great information here. I think it's important that consumers get up to date local housing market information from us, rather than listening to the media and reading the headlines. So much doom and gloom right now in the media.


Jan 29, 2023 03:07 PM