In our updates we like to show brief graphics that help us understand the trends; where we've been, and the direction we are currently going. The first graph shows the 3-month rolling average of Pending Sales for existing homes in Vancouver WA:
When reviewing the above year-by-year trend-lines, remember that most of 2020, all of 2021 and part of 2022 received an Overly amount of financial stimulation from the Federal Reserve.
Clearly the first four months of 2023 are far below the sales activity we've seen in each of the previous five years.
Our next chart goes back to the year 2009, and shows both the 3-month and 12-month rolling average trend for CLOSED Unit Sales:
This longer-term chart is showing what has actually Closed (not all Pending sales actually close). We see that the seasonal turn-around is at a low point not seen since the dark-days of the previous Market Crash. Yes, it is nice to see the sales numbers going up BUT, we are in a far different place than we have been in for most of the past decade.
Finally, we have our chart that shows the Average Sales Price Trends (for Closed Sales):
Currently we are actually seeing a couple of months now of upward price-movement for the 3-month trend-line; which may be surprising given the much lower level of resale homes sold. A large reason for this relative strength in Price is the persistent Low Inventory situation we are in. When the market shock hit last year, many potential home sellers have stayed-put. Thus, the count of New Listings is way, way down from previous years. The strong level of overall Inflation in goods and services is likely another reason for home prices to be firming up some.
Our conclusion for this time of the season is if you have good reason to Sell or Buy in Vancouver, the prices are firming up and rising; with Active Inventory at 0.8 months of Supply (a super low number); which are signs of a Seller's Market.
Comments(2)