This Week at Commercial Capital....a prediction....

Mortgage and Lending with Commercial Capital Ltd.


Two (2) weeks ago I went long in the stock market. I think we will see a rally for the next Two (2) months that will surprise people and likely take all the recession talk off the table….but it is a farce.


Underneath that, the pillar that has been holding up this economy..the small business owner who got flooded with EIDL money HAS pulled back. The Fed raising rates HAS finally hit this group.  I am seeing it in different things….


You see, the middle class has been tightening their belts for a year but the small business owner was able to tap cheap government money via the EIDL loans and didn’t even have to make a payment for 30 months. But now they are having to pay it back, all their credit lines and credit cards and SBA 7A loans have shot through the roof with the aggressive Fed, and all of a sudden, they are tight. Hotels have been the biggest group hiring the last 6 months trying to staff up for an insane summer like last year and they just won’t get it. I look for them to be laying off people after the 4th of July doesn’t pan out. THIS WILL NOT SHOW UP UNTIL AUGUST. Until then, inflation will look like it’s coming down, growth will appear strong, and the Fed will look like they are successfully engineering a soft landing. The perception and the rising stock market will bring the $5 Trillion that is in Money markets back into the market and that will drive stocks higher…until the reality starts hitting in August and September. And it is more than just hotels and restaurants….


Construction lending has tightened. Higher rates and tightening banks WILL slow an economy down. I had a deal come across my desk last week where Lennar-one of the largest homebuilders in the country-were looking for financing help. I have had multiple deals cross my desk where DR Horton, another biggie, was involved and I couldn’t find anyone to touch. This bodes poorly.


I can go on. Bank failures got a lot of press at the time but have calmed down but all is not rosey. ZIONS has announced they are SHUTTING DOWN their wholesale operation August 4th. Zions was one of the few companies that kept lending all through the ’08 recession-they tightened, but they kept lending. Now they are exiting…..this is NOT good. They will still exist as a bank but their wholesale division will be gone. They will accept apps through June 16 EXCEPT construction. They will honor LOI’s signed by June 23rd. All loans must be approved by July 31.


This won’t get a lot of press in the media..but this is big. Zions was a major wholesaler for banks….that is one less option.




As I said, I am going long in the market through the end of July then selling all long positions….I will likely short the market at that time. I will continue to be a big buyer of gold and silver.


As for my business, SBA loans are booming, I will keep writing them. If there is a bust come August and September, it is likely private money will become critical. It did in 2008. I expect the same now. We have Billions of money in our private money lenders on the lender list. So I will keep writing loans. 


STOP living beyond your means if you are, keep cash on hand, keep working , but be ready. When it goes, it may be ugly and there may be a great need…hopefully, a need we can fill. With all disruption comes opportunity for those who are ready.


Until then, no one does SBA as good as us, so let’s keep writing it up!


Have a great week!


Karen Schimpf


Commercial Capital, Ltd.


O: 512-358-1511










P.S. DID YOU KNOW? That over 80% of the commercial loans I get have been denied somewhere else? Did you also know, that in ALMOST EVERY CASE, I am able to get them a rate like the one they were quoted at the bank that denied them? IT NEVER HURTS to give me a call and run your deal by me. I can review and underwrite your deal and get you approval in writing often in 72 hours and with NO COST TO YOU! What do you have to lose?   


CALL TODAY at 512-358-1511


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