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Timing The Real Estate Market is Simply a Waste of Time

Mortgage and Lending with America's Home loans - Santa Rosa, Petaluma Mortgage Broker BRE 01895185 NMLS 312312

Do you find yourself waiting for your local real estate market to “crash” so you can make your move and “clean up?” While prices will certainly change over time, trying to time the moves in your favor will likely prove elusive—it’s simply impossible, even for seasoned real-estate veterans to forecast local real estate prices in the short term. Long-term pricing, in an economically viable area, will likely go higher—it’s just a question of time.

Hourglass marking time

I’ll use a real-life example—my own. I purchased my home on the east side of Petaluma in 2005 during a prior “buying frenzy.” My realtor was putting out multiple offers to try and make an offer stick—any offer. We received acceptance on a typical single-family home—3 bedroom, 2 ½ bath with 1669 square feet—absolutely nothing special, but it cost $635,000 18 years ago–right before the mortgage meltdown and the ensuing foreclosure crises that gripped the nation. Just like an auto mechanic that can’t fix his own vehicle, I, a real estate professional, managed to purchase a home, almost to the day, of the beginning of a massive downturn in real estate prices.

We continued to make our mortgage payments for some time and eventually the Sonoma County Assessor’s Office devalued our property for tax purposes to a low of $275,000 in 2009, at which time I really wanted to just walk away from the “underwater” property like so many other folks had done. The wife simply reminded me that was not going to be an option—not at all. So, we grinded it out and managed through it. Fast forward 2022—I had an appraisal completed seven months ago–$1,089,000! We went through a peak to trough cycle and lasted through another up cycle to find we had built some serious equity by not timing the market, but by owning.

The point is that the only way to keep up with ever-rising real estate prices in a desirable location like Sonoma County is to participate. I have far too many clients that have sat out for way too long only to watch home prices march ever higher. If you own property, you are building equity and keeping up with the real estate market. If you’re sitting it out waiting, the market will sooner or later price you completely out from ever owning a home in this area.

Not only can median prices go higher here in the beautiful wine country—they will. I can’t tell you what prices will look like next week, or next month, but I know where they will be in 10 years—very likely higher. Participate, or you will be forced to relocate.

It’s just a matter of time—not timing…

George Souto
George Souto NMLS #65149 FHA, CHFA, VA Mortgages - Middletown, CT
Your Connecticut Mortgage Expert

Scott Lawson if the Real Estate Market or mortgage interest rates could be predicted accurately everyone would be making a lot of money.

Jun 19, 2023 03:34 PM
Scott Lawson
America's Home loans - Santa Rosa, Petaluma Mortgage Broker - Santa Rosa, CA
Mortgage Broker FHA, VA, refinance or purchase

Yessir...The point of my piece is due to how many "buyers" have sidelined themselves waiting for real estate "Armageddon" to hit. Just a perspective bit to give them something to think about.

Jun 19, 2023 03:38 PM
Paddy Deighan MBA JD PhD
http://www.medicalandspaconsulting.com - Vail, CO
Paddy Deighan J.D. Ph.D

I agree and quality property in a proven market at an appropriate price will always sell

Jun 19, 2023 05:26 PM
Jan Green - Scottsdale, AZ
Value Added Service, 602-620-2699 - Scottsdale, AZ
HomeSmart Elite Group, REALTOR®, EcoBroker, GREEN

Excellent post!  It's always a good idea to remind buyers of your story and share that owning a home is just that - you own it.  Great reminder to stay the course and that real estate will continue to trend upward even if it has hiccups!

Jun 19, 2023 06:49 PM
Fred Sweezer Sr. CMI, LLC.
Hud Certified 203K Consultant - Long Beach, CA
HUD 203k Consultant

Right on point post! your are right participate. Thanks for your post. 

Jun 20, 2023 03:29 AM
Charles Ross - eXp Realty LLC
eXp Realty LLC Salina Group - Salina, KS
Love To Help People

Excellent post.Thank you for sharing. Have a wonderful day and a blessed week.

Jun 20, 2023 05:11 AM
Ed Silva, 203-206-0754
Mapleridge Realty, CT 203-206-0754 - Waterbury, CT
Central CT Real Estate Broker Serving all equally

Patience is the key. In the current market a buyer should take the plunge and as happens often wait for the rates to fall back and refinance, or just enjoy the home.

Jun 20, 2023 05:51 AM
Daniel Z Stoltzfus
Lancaster, PA

Our neighbors  sold their home about 4 years ago. They said they will rebuy in 5 years. They got their tax free money and bought a mobile home and toured the US. What can go wrong?

Jun 20, 2023 06:50 AM
Mary Hutchison, SRES, ABR
Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate-Kansas City Homes - Kansas City, MO
Experienced Agent in Kansas City Metro area

It all worked out for you--wife gave good advice!  I'll also add that I secretly laugh when buyers say "I'm looking for a good deal"....such a subjective term!  And to many buyers, a "good deal" is a move in ready home in a desirable location that's way underpriced.

Jun 20, 2023 01:19 PM
Diana Dahlberg
1 Month Realty - Pleasant Prairie, WI
Real Estate in Kenosha, WI since 1994 262-308-3563

Thank you for sharing this post with us here in the Rain.  Timing is everything in real estate!  Appreciate this information Scott Lawson 

Jun 30, 2023 10:26 AM