The Shenandoah Valley Virginia Real Estate Market - First Six Months 2023
The Shenandoah Valley Virginia Real Estate market for 2023 is showing signs of concern over the same period in 2022. The total number of 2023 sales in the five localities (Frederick, Clark, Warren, Shenandoah Counties and Winchester City) are down 23% over 2022 at 1429, compared to 1857. If you go back to 2021, the 2023 sales are down 28% from 1978 to 1429.
Another indicator in the shifting markets is in the days on the market. The 2023 0-30 days on the market sales were 69% of the total sales for the first six months of 2023. That does not sound bad until you compare it to the 2022 market. Over the same period, 85% of sales took place in the first 0-30 days on the market. That is a 19% drop in what would be considered quick sales over the same period year to year. The same percentage was similar in 2021. The total sales in the 0–30-day period was 84% of total sales for the first six months of 2021.
Homes are staying on the market longer in the current market. If you carry this out to the 31-60 days on the market, the total sales were 7% of the total market sales for the first six months of 2021. The 2022 market followed 2021 with 7% of total sales in the same period. Where the numbers start to shift radically is the 2023 31-60-day range. It was 13% of total sales, which is a 53% increase in time on the market year over year.
Of the 0-30-day sales for 2023, 985 homes sold at full price. That is a good ratio, but again, compared to 2022, where homes sold at 101.39% of list, it is a declining indicator. The 0-30-day sales in 2021 were 100.2% of list. The further from 0-30 days on the market, the more likely a home will sell below list. In the 2023 market, the 31–60-day sales averaged 95.86% of list. The same period in 2022 was 95.66% of list and the 2021 31-60-day average sale price was 95.26% of list price.
There are many reasons a house stays on the market longer than expected. The most common one is list price. If a house is overpriced at list, it may sit longer. It is a common misunderstanding among sellers that if you list a little high you will have room to move down in negotiations. There is an element of truth to that, but if a property is listed too high it may also sit unseen by the buying community.
Condition is another factor that keeps a home on the market longer. A home in ready to sell condition is more likely to sell closer to list and faster than one that has years of deferred maintenance. Buyer’s walk through a listing with a mental calculator dropping the price for every perceived issue with the home. By the time they exit the home, their price and list price can be radically different.
Of course, location is always a major factor in a quick sale. A desirable location can cause buyers to overlook issues that may cause a lower price offer. Take that in the other direction and a great house in a bad location is an orphan. When the house was purchased, the location may have been great, but time and change can transform a wonderful location into a so-so location and in extreme cases an undesirable location. For instance, a homeowner buys in a fantastic location only to find out later that a new factory, a convenience store, a shopping center or other heavily trafficked and potentially noisy change is about to happen and can devalue the location for them.
A wise buyer will look at a varied list of conditions before buying a new home. Knowledge of the area, changes that have taken place or will take place, neighbors, roads, and a host of other things can make a home a dream home or a nightmare. A solid real estate agent can help sort through the issues and help a buyer find a great home at a fair price. When you are ready to take the plunge, give us a call at Cornerstone Business Group, Inc. @ 540-722-6029. There is a great deal of information not included in this report that will follow in part 2.