Sensationalized, Confused and Conflicted...Let's Make Some Sense Of It

Real Estate Agent with Big Block Realty 858.232.8722 CA BRE# 01261476

The media will sensationalize, confuse, and conflict real estate information.
Local, full-time professional Real Estate Agents are the best source of info, (and lenders they work with like  Jason E. Gordon) because they working in your neighborhoods every week. They have the scoop, they are in the trenches.

Economists do not guess their predictions; they research the 30-year trends and other economic factors to come up with what may seem like bold predictions, but they are very fact based, historical trend based and mathematical, not theoretical.

"RENT THE RATE, BUY THE HOME, Then Refinance The Mortgage when rates drop in 2024. Suck it up now, to avoid writing 20 offers, well over asking next year!"

More Info On That Here:  Uncomfortable Today, Painful Tomorrow

The 2023 Market has bounced back from the 2022 dip; Days on Market are dropping.

You may refi once the rates drop instead of trying to begin your home buying process in an even more aggressive market provoked by both the increased buyer pool and the lowering of rates.


*Dave Stevens, CEO Mountain Lake Consulting is bullish with his bold predictions for the remainder of 2023 into 2024 and as far out as 2025:

The expectation is we’re heading into the second or third largest home sales year in American History by 2025 and that will be fed by the single largest generation of homebuying Americans (Millennials) hitting the market between now and then as they reach that statistical age of 35 years old (see graph).

Bigger than The Baby Boomer Generation, Here Comes The Home Buying Millennials with Gen z Not Far Behind.

Also, low supply, which although predicted to increase in 2024and 2025, will still not be enough to meet the demand. But the good news for homeowners is steady increased home values and equity growth. Real estate has always gone up! It has peaks and valleys but just look at this chart dating back to 1965...trending up, up and away! 

People that are focused on the here & now, vs. the future, are going to be left behind. Today, The Federal Reserve has brought on an awkward, technical environment trying to control an overheated economy.


Inflation is at roughly at a 4 and headed towards 2 sooner than the media is revealing, so those not seeing that the two is coming, will miss the opportunity of buying now and benefitting later. We will hit below 6% by December '23 and we’re heading into below 5% in 2024, complimented by a couple Fed reductions along the way in 2024 – which they will have to do because they will have pushed us into a mild recession by 2024.

The majority of the last 20 years has been a seller's market with the exception of the 2007-2011 Crash. 6 months inventory is a balanced market, 3 months or less is a sellers market and until more inventory comes into the market, the competition will only get worse. This is why we share to buy now and refi later, because it'll be much harder to buy ironically when the rates drop!


All graphics, courtesy of Buffini & Company and Brian Buffini's Bold Predictions July 2023

Posted by

Thomas J. Nelson
REALTOR®, CRS, RCS-D, CDPE, e-Pro, Certified Military Home Specialist, Luxury Home Specialist, Author, Keynote Speaker and  Podcast Host 

Serving Coastal San Diego from Carlsbad to Coronado, Downtown, Balboa Park Area,
La Jolla/UCSD & Mission Bay Park Areas
I Offer Rebates to Veterans
& Active Duty

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Disclaimer:  Nothing in this blog article is to be construed as legal advice, tax advice, medical advice or financial advice.  For legal advice see an attorney.   For tax advice, health or financial advice see a tax attorney, certified public accountant, or other qualified professional.

Comments (18)

Nina Hollander, Broker
Coldwell Banker Realty - Charlotte, NC
Your Greater Charlotte Realtor

Good morning, Thomas... a fantastic analysis of the reality of our housing market versus what the media would like us to think!

Jul 11, 2023 05:10 AM
Dorie Dillard Austin TX
Coldwell Banker Realty ~ 512.750.6899 - Austin, TX
NW Austin ~ Canyon Creek and Spicewood/Balcones

Good morning Thomas,

You scored a home run with this post! You are so right the media will sensationalize, confuse, and conflict real estate information. Your analysis of the "reality" of our housing market compared to the media's version is spot on!

Jul 11, 2023 05:45 AM
Brian England
Ambrose Realty Management LLC - Gilbert, AZ
MBA, GRI, REALTOR® Real Estate in East Valley AZ

People need to speak with a trusted agent to find out the reality of the market, they definitely shouldn't rely on the media, haha.

Jul 11, 2023 05:59 AM
Michael Jacobs
Pasadena, CA
Los Angeles Pasadena 818.516.4393

Hello Thomas - so many thoughts come to mind while reading your post.    Of course, "if it bleeds, it leads..." along with "follow the money..." for starters.  And the conversation continues.    

Jul 11, 2023 06:24 AM
Bill Salvatore - East Valley
Arizona Elite Properties - Chandler, AZ
Realtor - 602-999-0952 / em:

Great information.  Thanks for sharing and enjoy your week! 

Bill Salvatore, Realtor- Arizona Elite Properties

Jul 11, 2023 06:25 AM
Leanne Smith
Dirt Road Real Estate - Golden Valley, AZ
Relocation to NW AZ with elbow room & more freedom

The goal of real estate agents is to list and sell properties. The goal of newspapers and other media outlets is to sell papers, subscriptions of advertisements. The two goals are not the same and hence the disparity.

Jul 11, 2023 12:17 PM
Patricia Feager, MBA, CRS, GRI,MRP
Selling Homes Changing Lives

Thomas J. Nelson, REALTOR ® e-Pro CRS RCS-D Vets - Bravo! Can you hear my clapping? Congratulations on a very well-deserved FEATURE that is current and educational!

Jul 11, 2023 01:59 PM
Thomas J. Nelson, REALTOR ® e-Pro CRS RCS-D Vets
Big Block Realty 858.232.8722 - La Jolla, CA
CEO of Vision Drive Realty - Coastal San Diego

Ah, Thank You so much Patricia Feager, MBA, CRS, GRI,MRP I took a bow to compliment your applause LOL 😂

Jul 11, 2023 02:10 PM
Patricia Feager, MBA, CRS, GRI,MRP

Thomas J. Nelson, REALTOR ® e-Pro CRS RCS-D Vets - Now, can you see my great big smile?

Jul 11, 2023 02:12 PM
Jeff Dowler, CRS
eXp Realty of California, Inc. - Carlsbad, CA
The Southern California Relocation Dude

Hi Thomas:

Congrats on a well-deserving feature and analysis of the current market, expectations and what the media thinks consumers should believe. Best source of local information is the agents in the daily trenches.


Jul 11, 2023 05:02 PM
Dr. Paula McDonald
Beam & Branch Realty - Granbury, TX
Granbury, TX 936-203-0279

Excellent information. These are areas we all need trusted professionals to help navigate.

Jul 11, 2023 06:46 PM
Lise Howe
Keller Williams Capital Properties - Washington, DC
Assoc. Broker in DC, MD, VA and attorney in DC

This is such a great post that I am going to share it with my farm! Thanks.

Jul 12, 2023 04:00 AM
Jason E. Gordon
CMG Mortgage, San Diego, CA - San Diego, CA

I certainly hope AR “featured” this post. Economic logic will always outperform fear mongering when helping our valued clients make one of (if not THE) biggest decisions in their lives (whether or not to buy a home now). Love that you quoted David Stephens…I have a ton of respect for him

Jul 12, 2023 06:48 AM
Buzz Mackintosh
Mackintosh REALTORS - Frederick, MD
“Experience, reliable, leadership”

Great post ! Love the quote; "RENT THE RATE, BUY THE HOME",

Jul 12, 2023 07:01 AM
Edward Gilmartin
CRE - Boston, MA

Pretend the period from 2009 to 2020 didn’t exist. Mortgage rates between 5% and 7% are here to stay

Jul 12, 2023 02:32 PM
Brenda Mayette
Miranda Real Estate Group, Inc. - Glenville, NY
Getting results w/ knowledge & know-how!

Data tells the story & you interpret it so well! Great post!! 

Jul 13, 2023 05:56 AM
Jeffrey DiMuria 321.223.6253 Waves Realty
Waves Realty - Melbourne, FL
Florida Space Coast Homes

This is very simply put. If the rate is high, the price increase is low (or even decrease). When the rates drop, the amount owed does not go up, just the payment goes down!

Jul 13, 2023 07:13 AM
Andrew Mooers | 207.532.6573
Northern Maine Real Estate-Aroostook County Broker

Stop renting, start owning no matter what interest rates all. Fire your landlord, get a street address of your own. Great post!

Jul 16, 2023 03:08 AM
Debe Maxwell, CRS
Savvy + Company (704) 491-3310 - Charlotte, NC

Hi TJ! Your interpretation of the data is exceptional! Now, can you please speak with the Chicken Littles of the media?! I understand our public-facing professions have 'education' at the core but, the sensationalism has truly gotten out of hand the past couple of decades - at least in my world)!

I think I hear this quote from Buffini - 


Fantastic post & data and congrats on the well-deserved gold star!

Jul 24, 2023 09:08 PM