Newnan Real Estate Market Update as of October 2, 2023
Summary: The amount of listings is similar verses this time last year. Pending sales are down (August data). Closed sales are down. List price is much higher where as sales prices have not increased as proportionately. Days on market 3 weeks to a month roughly. Price reductions are happening much more frequently in this market.
About Newnan: Newnan Georgia is the county seat for Coweta County located about 30 minutes to the South East of Atlanta's International airport. Current population is about 45,000 and the County is about 150,000 or so. The city itself prides itself as the "city of homes" with many pre Civil War era houses near the town Square. The city has grown tremendously over the past several decades with the addition of large subdivisions, sprawling golf courses and of course shopping as well as a great selection of great restaurants. Surrounding areas include Peach Tree City and Fayetteville to the East with a similar population, Chattahoochie Hills to the North including Serenbe, Senoia to the South East where the Walking Dead was filmed, and of course Carrolton home of the University of West Georgia to the West. Coweta county growth estimates vary, but one study conducted by Emory University in Atlanta forecasts more than 100,000 more people in the county by year 2035 and 50,000 more in neighboring Fayette County. More than 4,000 businesses operate in Coweta County and it's average annual household income tops $100,000.00. Newnan is where Country Singer Alan Jackson grew up as well. It's also the setting for a lot of movie production and about 15 miles from Trilith Studios in Fayette County, and the proposed Kane studios in Chattahoochee Hills about 10 miles to the North.
Newnan is unique in that it offers the close proximity to a major metropolitan area served by the world's largest airport in terms of traffic, while enjoying closer amenities available to those from larger cities, but maintaining that small town charm. It's town square is absolutely beautiful with the courthouse being the crown jewel right in the center. It's surrounded by smaller independently owned shops, offices, churches, bars and restaurants. A little farther out and you get a very nice shopping mall with all of it's offerings. It's no surprise then to understand the desirability of the area and the quality of life it provide for those who who own homes here and work in the area.
Market Report: Obviously interest rate increases implemented over the course of the past year or so has impacting housing all across American, and it has here too. The majority of home owners with a mortgage refinanced or have already lower interest loans prior to the increase and it's a tough choice to sell when you have to buy a home that costs more, and a mortgage that costs more. On top of that we have seen inflation in various sectors and increasing oil costs making home affordability a major issue that probably won't be resolved any time soon. As a result people are staying put unless life presents a situation where someone absolutely has to move and that's what we are seeing now. Record low inventory of homes for sale, and when supply drops, if it drops below that of demand, and it has even as demand has gone down some, then we see prices increase. The big take away however is a drop off the cliff in pending sales as you see in the next graphic. (note, recent data a week after this chart suggests an increase in pending sales relative to last year, and shows up as a wider gap in sales numbers)
We are still in what is commonly referred to as a Seller's Market with about a two and a half month of housing supply (meaning how long roughly would it take at the current sales rate to sell everything we have at the rate it's coming on and the rate it is selling), but we'll need to keep an eye on this in the months to come. Average days on the market depending on what you are looking at and where, is about 3 weeks.
New listings is also way down along with decreasing amount of sold properties and you might expect this as a function of several items; less homes available, affordability issues, and seasonal variables. One thing that stands out to me though, is that in the past we see folks list their homes and then the average sold price is a little less than what they had hoped for and that's expected. What we see now though is that gap widening where people in general are expecting to get that increase and ask more, while the actual sold value is lower. This is the market not meeting the seller's expectations in most cases, but can also reflect a lot of remodel and flip properties entering the market as well causing this pattern to show up in Newnan, but not as pronounced county wide. Pricing for the market and it's changes is critical now more than ever. The other big take away I found is that ( keep in mind that even in the best market possible, not every thing sells ) in the last 3 months only about 43% of the listings sold, however when you include the listings that had a price reduction, that number increased to 71%. Price reductions are happening more and more as people realize they have overshot the market with their list price anticipating a sharper value increase that didn't actually materialize to the extent originally anticipated.
The good news is that there is a bunch of new product including several condo communities coming on the market that will help first time buyers get into ownership. Meanwhile save save save! We don't know exactly what the future will bring, and forecasts are all over the map, but if you are renting now and would like to get into ownership, get prepared. There could be some good deals to be had in the future. For those already in ownership; If on the other hand you have to move for what ever reason life has handed you, don't put it off. All boats rise with the tide, and it could be you could pay down some points to lower your mortgage rates, and there could be opportunities down the line to refinance. Remember 7 or 8% was common in the past, and when we look at real dollar values, mortgage costs now verses what our parents dealt with aren't that different.
I hope this information is helpful for those interested in it enough to read up to this point, and if I can be of any help I would be happy to set a time and meet with you to discuss the market and proper positioning of your home in this changing market. (( All Data from the Georgia MLS, Oct. 2, 2023 ))
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