Housing prices UP, Again.... and some data supporting home prices

By
Mortgage and Lending with CMG Home Loans NMLS 248937

The latest numbers for Case Shiller and FHFA are out and both show strong increases in home prices. Zillow did report a small decline in September of 0.1% .

Over all 2023 is shaping up to be another good year for home prices:

You've probably heard over and over again the simple Economics 101 Supply and Demand argument stating that we still have demand and we don't have enough inventory.  I have even written about this one and included population numbers, household formations and more that also support housing prices... 

Here is another piece to consider: Mortgage Delinquencies are at a 25 year low.

This is a Chart from FRED.Stlouisfed.org which is a great spot to dig for data if you want to do a little research of your own.  There is also Core logic, but you can only find year over year charts there.

The above chart shows mortgage delinquencies going back 4 decades.  The grey bars are recessions.  You can see in each recession delinquencies bump up a little, even in 2020 at the beginning of the pandemic we had a slight bump up in delinquencies.  The focus should be on that big one in 2008... That is the meltdown everyone focuses on when they worry about housing prices. Look at that peak in delinquent mortgages- the highest ever.

If you look at today with Core Logic's numbers  the number of Mortgage Loans over 30 days late dropped to 2.6% - you have to go back to the 1990s to see them lower than that. Loans "seriously delinquent" which is over 90 Days late dropped to 0.9% and loans in foreclosure remained at 0.3% which is very close to an all time low.   

As a comparison, there was one month in 2010 where delinquencies hit 11.5%.

The quality of existing mortgages is VERY high, People are paying there mortgages and protecting their equity. Equity is also at an all time high. 

When people are paying on time, When they have significant equity, Loans typically do not go bad. This reduces panic selling and fire sales and supports stable home prices.

Knowledge is power, You cannot rely on the Media's negative spin - dig a little on your own, and share with buyers and sellers. If you are looking to buy a home and you can afford to buy at today's rates it is still a good time to buy.

Real Estate has a proven track record as a good reliable long term investment.

One last chart to support that last statement since 1942, Up 73years down 7 and flat 1:

 

Give me a call for all your mortgage needs.

Robert Rauf 
Mortgage Loan Originator NMLS# 248937
http://www.RobertRauf.com
or my blog: http://activerain.com/blogs/rrauf 
Office: (732)908-4868  Cell (732)740-0175 

RRauf@CMGhomeloans.com 
www.RobertRauf.com
 
 

Since 1987 I have been helping my clients fulfill their dream of home ownership! CMG Home Loans  is located at 1310 Hooper Ave Toms River, NJ 08753. NMLS #1820. Visit  www.RobertRauf.com for more information. NJ Mortgages, New Jersey Mortgages, Mortgages in NJ, mortgage in New Jersey, Mortgages in New Jersey, Toms River NJ 08753, Toms River NJ 08755, Brick NJ 08723, Brick NJ 08724 Mortgage in Ocean County NJ, Mortgage in Monmouth County NJ, Jackson NJ 08527, Howell NJ 07731, Lacey 08731 08734, Beachwood 08722 Bayville 08721, 

Comments (2)

Wanda Kubat-Nerdin - Wanda Can!
Red Rock Real Estate (435) 632-9374 - St. George, UT
St. George Utah Area Residential Sales Agent

All real estate is definitely local, especially when it comes to supply and demand, Robert. Realistic market reporting, mattersand is conducive to our success. Enjoyed your post!

Nov 15, 2023 06:00 PM
Robert Rauf
CMG Home Loans - Toms River, NJ

Wanda Kubat-Nerdin - Wanda Can!  Real Estate is definitely local.  The above numbers were all national, In some neighborhoods near me we have actually outpaced some of these, and I am sure there are a few places that were over sold.  Thanks for reading!

Nov 16, 2023 01:28 PM