Phoenix Housing Market Report 12-7-23

By
Real Estate Agent with Value Added Service, 602-620-2699 SA5376460000

What can home buyers and sellers expect for the housing market this time of year in Phoenix?   The housing market is somewhat split between buyers markets and sellers markets.   But as you can see from the lead graphic, real estate is still selling in Greater Phoenix! 

 

Those cities that are on the outskirts of the metro Phoenix area are experiencing buyers markets - namely Queen Creek, Maricopa, Litchfield Park, Gold Canyon and Casa Grande.  These cities are south, east and west of South Phoenix.  Some cities are in a "balanced" market.  Meaning, the demand matches the sales creating a balance between buyers and sellers.  Those cities are Surprise, Peoria and Sun City.  Those cities are in the Northeast area of Phoenix.  

 

Inventory has ticked upward since August thanks to rate increases.  15,708 homes, condos, townhomes, patio homes, twin homes and mobile homes for a city of 4.7 million with over one million households is not very much supply!    We may very well end 2023 with the same inventory we started with.  2023 is in pink while 2022 is in red/orange, which is still considered low inventory. 

Active Listings Phoenix Housing Market Report November 2023

How are inventory levels by size/square footage?  Notice that smaller homes have the bulk of inventory, while larger homes are a smaller segment of the inventory.  The largest segment of homes (4036)in the lightest shade of blue for sale are between 1500 - 2000 square feet.  2763 homes are between 2000 - 2500 square feet.  Larger homes aren't affected by interest rate increases.  Homes ranging from 3000 - 3500 square feet are the larger portion of the orange inventory, potentially affected by interest rates.   The smaller number of homes for sale at the bottom are over 3500 square feet.

Housing Inventory by Square Footage Size November 2023

Median Sales Prices have dipped to $415,500, as part of a seasonal decline and rising interest rates.  The "median" report below eliminates the very high sales prices and the very low prices.  Since this report excludes the very high home sales wherein buyers aren't effected by interest rates, this view is somewhat skewed.  Median sales prices peaked in May, 2022 before interest rates increased and prices dropped.

Monthly Median Sales Prices November 2023

This chart includes very valuable information.  The data for this report is every sale is price per square foot that is UNDER CONTRACT.  No one has the pending price information except the buyers agent, the buyer, the listing agent, the seller,  the Arizona Regional MLS, and those statisticians at the Cromford Report.  Gathering the data, these reports are created that is HUGELY helpful when helping buyers and sellers in real estate.  Knowing where the market is headed can guide an agent assisting clients with real estate purchases and sales.  Notice that the current price per square foot data is higher than the peak in June, 2022.  So inventory, and the lack thereof, has directed sales prices.  But what about demand now that rates are higher? 

Knowing Under Contract PP square feet

Knowing how buyers react to prices helps determine how to approach a purchase contract.  Homes up to $500,000 are clearly in demand as prices have risen, pricing many out of buying a home.  Even though sales are less than during the frenzy, demand still exists and buyers for homes are still out-bidding each other.  The clear winner of how much over list price buyers are willing to pay is the price range of $2 - $2.5 million.   Homes over $1 million are receiving many high offers!  

Closings Over List Price November 2023

If you're interested in learning more, please reach out to me.  Please do not copy my subscribed graphs. Graphs are provided by the Cromford Report.  If you're interested in this data, please contact the helpful peeps at the Cromford Report! 

 

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Comments (8)

Dorie Dillard Austin TX
Coldwell Banker Realty ~ 512.750.6899 - Austin, TX
NW Austin ~ Canyon Creek and Spicewood/Balcones

Good evening Jan,

There is no question homes are still selling in Phoenix. I can see why homes up to $500,000 are in demand  while the most in demand price range are homes 2 - 2.5 Million and receiving the highest offers!

Dec 07, 2023 03:16 PM
Christopher Robson
Educators Realty - Syosset, NY

Love seeing other markets.  Great detailed report. We are still in a very solid sellers market on Long Island, New York.  It's all about the lack of inventory here also. 

Dec 07, 2023 04:52 PM
Endre Barath, Jr.
Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices California Properties - Beverly Hills, CA
Realtor - Los Angeles Home Sales 310.486.1002

Jan Green - Scottsdale, AZ  it has been a while since we connected and what a great detailed market snapshot  hope buyers and sellers will reach out to you for representation, Endre

Dec 07, 2023 10:42 PM
Nina Hollander, Broker
Coldwell Banker Realty - Charlotte, NC
Your Greater Charlotte Realtor

Good morning, Jan... a very detailed update to help people understand that in some ways our markets are a bit schizophrenic! 

Dec 08, 2023 03:47 AM
Jan Green - Scottsdale, AZ
Value Added Service, 602-620-2699 - Scottsdale, AZ
HomeSmart Elite Group, REALTOR®, EcoBroker, GREEN

Thank you for reading and commenting Dorie Dillard Austin TX   Each of us has similar stories in this current marketplace!  Thank you!

Dec 08, 2023 07:38 AM
Jan Green - Scottsdale, AZ
Value Added Service, 602-620-2699 - Scottsdale, AZ
HomeSmart Elite Group, REALTOR®, EcoBroker, GREEN

I bet you have a sellers market Christopher Robson !  Coincidentally, I've been to Long Island, specifically Oyster Bay, many years ago.  What a beautiful place!  Thank you for stopping by and commenting!

Dec 08, 2023 07:39 AM
Jan Green - Scottsdale, AZ
Value Added Service, 602-620-2699 - Scottsdale, AZ
HomeSmart Elite Group, REALTOR®, EcoBroker, GREEN

Yes, it has been a while Endre Barath, Jr. !    Appreciate you stopping by.  I'm long over-due to return reading and commenting on others blogs.  Appreciate you!

Dec 08, 2023 07:40 AM
Jan Green - Scottsdale, AZ
Value Added Service, 602-620-2699 - Scottsdale, AZ
HomeSmart Elite Group, REALTOR®, EcoBroker, GREEN

That's a good description Nina Hollander, Broker !  Hadn't thought of that, but if he word fits?!   One of my listings is a remodeled, adorable little home in Tempe - but with a tenant.  If it weren't for the long term tenant, I'd have sold in 3 weeks or less.  Rental rates are flat and so this is actually a good deal for an investor.  I do have someone who might make a cash offer, but it's another 7% drop in price and we've already dropped it 3%.   Buyers are getting tough!

Dec 08, 2023 07:42 AM