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Happy New Year: Here is a 2024 Housing Forecast

By
Mortgage and Lending with CMG Home Loans NMLS 248937

 

Happy New Year!

2024 Housing Forecast: I just read a housing forecast for this year, and it is promising.   A quick look back at 2023 we have Year over year prices up 6.4% as of November and it looks like the full year will be between 6.8 and 7% once the data is released for December. For this year the appreciation forecast is for housing prices to go up another 4.5-5% in value with 15-20% more transactions in 2024 VS 2023. (With less Agents in the business and fewer LO’s that should be good for all of us) For interest rates the forecast is also good and we anticipate seeing a range from the Mid 5s to the high 6s for the year. Under 6 is an important number. The “experts” feel that a sub 6% mortgage rate will get the move up buyers off the fence which will add some

 MUCH-needed inventory.  The Odds makers on Wall Street are forecasting a 94% chance of a rate cut in May and 100% in June, with a likely 4 or more cuts to

 the Fed Funds rate by the end of the year. 

 

Rates? After a huge improvement in Mid-December Mortgage rates have been in a very tight range, looking at it on a chart it is almost flat.  We did lose just a little bit of ground last week, but rates ended the week only slightly worse than the previous week and the market this week has started off in positive territory with no real data to chew on until Thursday’s CPI report and Friday’s PPI.  Thursday’s number will be the most important one, and if the trend continues as we have seen it in the past 6 months it should be supportive of lower rates. (*CPI is the Consumer price index showing inflation at the consumer level)

 

Housing Prices: Supply and demand continue to support housing.  Not only are we living with limited inventory (as we are all painfully aware) but household formations have far outpaced builder completions. In 9 of the past 10 years household formations have outpaced builder output significantly.  There just aren’t enough homes available in the country to meet the need.

If you are looking to purchase or refinance a home in NJ, please give me a call, I can also help you in all 50 states, CMG is licensed throughout the country.

Robert Rauf 
Mortgage Loan Originator NMLS# 248937
http://www.RobertRauf.com
or my blog: http://activerain.com/blogs/rrauf 
Office: (732)908-4868  Cell (732)740-0175 

RRauf@CMGhomeloans.com 
www.RobertRauf.com
 
 

Since 1987 I have been helping my clients fulfill their dream of home ownership! CMG Home Loans  is located at 222 Commons Way Toms River, NJ 08755. NMLS #1820. Visit  www.RobertRauf.com for more information. NJ Mortgages, New Jersey Mortgages, Mortgages in NJ, mortgage in New Jersey, Mortgages in New Jersey, Toms River NJ 08753, Toms River NJ 08755, Brick NJ 08723, Brick NJ 08724 Mortgage in Ocean County NJ, Mortgage in Monmouth County NJ, Jackson NJ 08527, Howell NJ 07731, Lacey 08731 08734, Beachwood 08722 Bayville 08721, 

Show All Comments Sort:
Michael J. Perry
Fathom Realty - Lancaster, PA
Lancaster, PA Relo Specialist

Our area has Scarcity in most of our Price Points. It will take a 5% Interest Rate to jump start the Inventory increase 

Jan 08, 2024 03:18 PM
Dick Betts
TOUCHSTONE REAL ESTATE - The Villages, FL
REALTOR® The Villages, Florida

Robert Rauf great info I have been spreading the word about mortgage rates since the last rate cut!

Jan 08, 2024 05:03 PM
Lise Howe
Keller Williams Capital Properties - Washington, DC
Assoc. Broker in DC, MD, VA and attorney in DC

I hope that this market report makes your phone ring with eager buyers! 

Jan 08, 2024 07:04 PM
Robert Rauf
CMG Home Loans - Toms River, NJ

Michael J. Perry My area is in the same situation, sitting on about 1/4 of what we would consider a balanced market. I did a video on this on my IG and on TikTok  @RobRauf if you want to seek it out

Jan 09, 2024 06:31 AM
Robert Rauf
CMG Home Loans - Toms River, NJ

Dick Betts Rates now are very similar to this time last year and significantly better than what we had in October... Spreading the word is a good thing!!  and spreading the data to show that it is unlikely we will see prices drop is just as important.

Jan 09, 2024 06:32 AM
Robert Rauf
CMG Home Loans - Toms River, NJ

Lise Howe Wouldn't that be wonderful!!!  Happy New Year.

Jan 09, 2024 06:33 AM