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New Job Report Numbers: 2024 vs. 2007 - Real Estate Effects - 7 Points

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Real Estate Agent with https://teamcoker.robertpaul.com 9023635

Time to Sell?  The New Job Report Numbers 2024 vs. 2007 and the Real Estate Effects.
Thus is a summary of a recent report labeled by Zero Hedge as the "most ridiculous jobs report in recent history".  The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) claimed a blockbuster job growth of 353,000 in the U.S. for the last month. However, as Zero Hedge delves into the data, a different narrative emerges, raising questions about the accuracy of these figures and drawing comparisons to the tumultuous economic periods of 2007 and 2008.

Seven Questions:

1. Job Growth or Weekly Hours adjusted?

    BLS reported an unexpected addition of 353,000 jobs, doubling Wall Street's consensus.
    Comparison to 2008 crisis: The last time we saw a 34.1-hour workweek was during the depths of the 2008 crisis.

2. Average Hourly Earnings or another Result of Hourly adjustment?

    BLS claimed a spike of 42% in hourly earnings, exceeding predictions.
    Closer examination reveals earnings appear higher due to assumed reduced work hours.

3. Job Creation Authenticity?

    According to census data, roughly half of the reported BLS jobs may be fictitious.
    The creation of the reported number of full-time jobs is questionable, with data suggesting zero net gain, and a rise in second jobs.

4. Are they Government or Private Sector Jobs?

    In the BLS report, the few full-time jobs created were primarily in the government and social assistance sectors.
    Private sector shrinkage implies potential economic decline, as the private sector is crucial for actual tangible creation, and government jobs don't create anything that adds to the economy.

5. Do Job Growth Demographics Show Locals are Lazy?

    Data suggests that all job growth since 2018 has been among foreign-born workers, leaving native-born workers with zero net job additions. Does that mean there are fewer locals adding to the economy and who are instead more of a drain?

6. Seasonal Adjustment or Something else?

    Zero Hedge states that a three-million-job difference between raw data and BLS's seasonal adjustment raises concerns about the accuracy and potential manipulation of the figures. Those concerns are currently whispered in financial circles as they decide where to put their future investments.

7. What are the implications for Real Estate?
    
    Buyers, Investors, and in particular sellers who are hoping to capture the most equity they can, are watching for signs of "weakness", the top of the curve, the peak in prices, the answer to the question is this the time to sell? If this analysis is correct, maybe it is. If you're old enough to remember, 2007-2012 was a rough time for real estate owners - Let's not go there again!
    
Conclusion:

Does statistical inclusion of some things, deletion of other things, and "interpretation" of more things provide a true/real report, or is this a way to provide more of a kind of "Kool-Aide" for those who are thirsty for particular perspective?

Because economic statistics play a crucial role in shaping public perception, the disparity between official reports and actual ground-level experiences is cause for concern. The data suggests potential manipulation, or at least miscalculation, prompting a reevaluation of the metrics used to gauge economic health. As we navigate through 2024, it becomes imperative to critically examine job reports and other economic indicators to form a more accurate understanding of the prevailing economic conditions in order to make the best decision about real estate and other investments.

We are in interesting times!

Posted by

Heath Coker, Associate Broker
Berkshire Hathaway Homeservices Robert Paul Properties
teamcoker.robertpaul.com
508-548-8888  Licensed in MA
Its a beautiful day on Cape Cod!

James Heath Coker | Create Your Badge

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