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Vancouver WA Real Estate Market Update January 2024

Real Estate Agent with Premiere Property Group, LLC - Vancouver Washington 88349

A Modest Rebound in New Listings to start 2024; with a Minor Upward Move to Pending Sales; While Closed Sales Declined.

January is the month near the end of the Winter slow-down that we start to see signs of "Spring" coming to the Vancouver WA home sales market; and this year we see some of that with New Listings taking a nice upward move. Home Sales Prices are still in a moderately declining mode (that was briefly "Interrupted" last month by One extremely large home sale of $13,000,000!).

This first graphic we have compares just the month of January 2024, with the same month in 2023:

Vancouver WA Existing Home Sales Activity January 2024 vs January 2023

Although the number of Active Listings is nearly the same; Pending Sales are substantially lower; and Sold Homes are significantly lower. If 2024 is having a worse start than 2023, this could be a sign of a continuing declining market.

Owing to the relatively (statistics-wise) smaller size of the Vancouver WA market, the next chart uses a 3-month rolling average to plot the Pending Sales results for Existing Homes:

Vancouver WA Pending Home Sales Trends January 2024
With January's result coming in below the January 2023 mark, it is clear our local has not already "bottomed." Given the length of time of the current decline however, we tend to think we are at or near an "equilibrium" level of activity given the continued high home loan interest rates. We expect Pending Sales will improve with both More New Listings and a lowering of home loan Interest rates.

Our next chart again uses a 3-month rolling average, this time to show the trend for the average Number / Units Sold (3-month & 12-month):

Vancouver WA Unit Home Sales January 2024

At this point in time the 3-month trend is clearly at the Lowest point for the 21st Century; while the 12-month trend is very nearly so!!!

Next we have the 3-month and 12-month rolling averages for Closed Sale Prices on existing homes:

Vancouver WA Average Home Sales Prices for Existing Homes January 2024

Since the peak for the 3-month trend-line last July-August, the short-term trend has been modestly declining. The 12-month trend for the past 6 months has been moderately rising, and has been hitting a new high for this measurement for each of the past 4 months! Depending on the change in interest rates over the next few months will likely determine if prices Plateau; Rise to new Peaks; or, Decline.

For other data bits not in our graphics: Active Inventory for Vancouver is at 1.0 Month's of Supply, which is extremely low, and falling from 1.2 last month; Average Days on the Market increased by 9 days to 44 days - which is still rather brisk by past standards.  

In summary, we are clearly still in a uniquely challenging, and rather painful time in the Vancouver WA home sales / real estate market. If the global/macro forces hold interest rates at the same level, I opine that our market will find a new equilibrium at the higher rates and move forward at a different rate of growth than what we've seen in the past.  However, if the interest rates come down significantly and quickly enough, we may again see the excesses of the 2020-2021 period.

Thank you for visiting our Vancouver real estate market update for January 2024. If you have in interest in Selling or Buyer a home or real estate this year, please contact us soon - we'd love to get to know you!

Jim Crawford
Long & Foster - Fredericksburg, VA
Jim Crawford Broker Associate Fredericksburg VA

Thank you for taking the time to prepare and share this market information!  Very professional and informative.

Feb 20, 2024 06:27 PM
John Slocum

Hi Jim Crawford - Glad you like our real estate market report for Vancouver Washington. Thanks for stopping by!

Feb 21, 2024 11:02 AM