Good News for the Shenandoah Valley, VA Real Estate Market 1st Quarter Report 2024
Good news for local real estate! The Shenandoah Valley, VA real estate market is showing positive numbers for the first quarter of 2024. The five different localities (Winchester City, Frederick, Clarke, Warren and Shenandoah Counties) have only three stats down of the 20 critical measures of a healthy market. Clarke County has two of those three. Warren County makes up the third down stat.
The struggle the local markets 
have faced is low inventory and rising interest rates. Inventory fell in August 2017, and it has struggled to catch up every year since. Currently, over the five localities, there were 933 homes listed in the first quarter. That is an increase of 22% over the same period in 2023. The median price of those listings was $420,000. That is a 5% increase in listing price over that same period last year. The median sold price during the first quarter of 2024 was $382000. Based on the median list price of $420000, that is a -9% decrease in sales price. The 2023 numbers followed a similar pattern. The median list price in the first quarter of 2023 was $381720 and the median sales price was $349900, an -8% drop.
That’s important to know going into the second quarter of 2024. Previous markets, where everything seemed to be extreme with houses selling in hours to days at prices well beyond the list price, seem to be slowing down. The number of days on the market in 2024’s first quarter was 47. That is only a slight change from 2023, which was 44. Just for perspective, the 2022 first quarter days on the market were 29. What that does hint at is that buyers are making more thought-out decisions rather than feeling pressure to make an offer instantly and outside of normal comfort parameters.
Within the five localities, Winchester City had this highest percentage increase of listings per capita with 91, an increase of 49%. Shenandoah County followed close behind with a 30% increase and 166 new listings. Warren and Frederick Counties each increased 23% with 196 and 442 respectively. Clarke County is the only locality that saw a drop in listings with a decrease of -31% over 2023 at 38. Clarke County is a unique market. It can skew local statistics because of its uniqueness. It is a smaller market with fewer listings and fewer sales on average.
Warren County had the highest increase in median sales price with $385000 or 15% increase. It is followed by Shenandoah County at $324000 at a 12% increase, and Winchester City followed close behind at $359900 or 11% increase. Frederick County increased median sales price to $415000 (5%) and Clarke County, again had the only negative sales price change at -19% to $475000.
One additional statistic that shows a moderation of the market is days on the market to sales price. Winchester City’s 0-30 days on the market showed a 97.91% sales price compared to listing price. In 2020-2023 that percentage would very easily have been over 100% of list price. Frederick County also showed a slight move downward with a 99.05% sales price compared to list price. Both Warren and Shenandoah Counties were over 100% of the list price. Warren County came in at 100.56% of the list price and Shenandoah County came in at 100.77% of the list price. Those are more like the last few years. Clark County was also down slightly at 99.30% of the list price. The longer a property sat on the market, the more likely a seller was to see less, or in most cases, around 95% sale to list price.
Overall, the Shenandoah Valley, VA real estate market seems to be heading toward a more stable and healthy market. The large number of new neighborhoods and track homes being built is aiding the market find its balance. The number of available homes is 22% higher than 2023. That statistic is encouraging looking to the future. Just the Winchester-Frederick County market alone needs approximately 500-600 homes available to be in a healthy range for both buyers and sellers. During the first quarter, the number of listings brought to market was 533. There have been periods over the previous 7 years where that number fell below 200. In a market like that, sellers are in control and buyers have little advantage, if any. Each one of the five localities has a sweet spot for the number of listings needed to keep the market moving. The change in the Winchester-Frederick County market is encouraging. Let’s trust it will continue.
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