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The No-Nonsense 🔮 2025 Bold Predictions

By
Real Estate Agent with Big Block LPT Realty 858.232.8722 CA BRE# 01261476

This week we had our Bi-annual Bold Predictions with Buffini & Company and Brian was on fire 🔥 as usual! He tends to be 85-95% accurate every 6 months because he has so many industry resources in his network. 

In 2024, the averages reached all-time highs, as the average age of home buyers increased. Notably, the all-cash factor accounted for 26% of closed transactions. The average age of first-time buyers rose from 35 to 38 years, driven by continuously rising prices. Additionally, 73% of buyers did not have children under the age of 18 living in their homes.

Conversely, we saw some all-time lows in 2024 too!


And this meant that 77% of all homes sold in the US Market
did not have children under the age of 18 residing in the home.

And in the age of discount brokers, online portals and literally the most technology available to any generation on this planet (except when the Ancient Aliens were here), For Sale By Owners dropped to an all-time low of 6% from a more traditional 11% annually. People are drowning in information and starving for wisdom from their local REALTOR®.

         

Inventory is starting to rise back towards 2022 levels.

 

What about The Fed?

Politics aside, here's a bold prediction:

 

  • By the way, if you sold anything in 2023, you're among the top 53% of REALTORS®!
  • If you know you’ll remain in the industry through 2025, you’re in the top 73% of REALTORS®—27% are unsure!
  • Additionally, if you have less than 15 years of experience in real estate, you may lack the breadth of experience and knowledge possessed by the other 50% of the industry.

Here’s why:

  • 11 years of prices predominantly rising.

  • 14 years of inventory shortages.

  • Changes in the industry since August 17, 2024.



 

Let's sum it up:

The only reason real estate appears easy is that you're either watching a professional at work or being misled by a TV show. There’s no app for what we do, and there are no shortcuts. It's time to roll up your sleeves and get to work—or step aside!  ~ Thomas J. Nelson

Posted by


Thomas J. Nelson
REALTOR®, CRS, RCS-D, CDPE, e-Pro, Certified Military Home Specialist, Luxury Home Specialist, Author, Keynote Speaker and  Podcast Host 

Serving Coastal San Diego from Carlsbad to Coronado, Downtown, Balboa Park Area,
La Jolla/UCSD & Mission Bay Park Areas
I Offer Rebates to Veterans
& Active Duty

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(858) 232-8722
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RCS-Divorce     Southern California Chapter of Certified Residential Specialists (CRS)

 
 
Disclaimer:  Nothing in this blog article is to be construed as legal advice, tax advice, medical advice or financial advice.  For legal advice see an attorney.   For tax advice, health or financial advice see a tax attorney, certified public accountant, or other qualified professional.
Show All Comments Sort:
Michael Jacobs
Pasadena, CA
Pasadena And Southern California 818.516.4393

Hello Thomas - your closing quote makes for a good ending (and actually a starting point too) to this post.  Happy Sunday.  

Dec 15, 2024 06:19 AM
Thomas J. Nelson, REALTOR ® CRS,ABR,PSA,RCS-D, CFSP

Thank you Michael Jacobs - I appreciate your insights. Happy Sunday and🎄Season's Greetings🎅🏻 Thanks for always being a kind but intuitive reader of my posts!

Dec 15, 2024 07:26 AM
Sandy Padula & Norm Padula, JD, GRI
HomeSmart Realty West & Florida Realty Investments - , CA
Presence, Persistence & Perseverance

Thomas J. Nelson, REALTOR ® CRS,ABR,PSA,RCS-D, ePRO All interesting data you shared with us. Let's hope some of these predictions come true. Thank you.

Dec 15, 2024 06:42 AM
Thomas J. Nelson, REALTOR ® CRS,ABR,PSA,RCS-D, CFSP

🎄Season's Greetings🎅🏻 and much success to you in 2025! 🥂🍾Brian and Buffini & Company are typically in the 85%+ accuracy in their predications, especially the last 10 years Sandy Padula & Norm Padula, JD, GRI  - good to hear from you two-too!

Dec 15, 2024 07:27 AM
Dorie Dillard Austin TX
Coldwell Banker Realty ~ 512.750.6899 - Austin, TX
NW Austin ~ Canyon Creek and Spicewood/Balcones

Good morning Thomas,

Loved your ending for your very informative post! I've already rolled up my sleeves to come on the market first quarter with well presented and priced listings. The For Sale By Owners dropping to an all-time low of 6% does not surprise me. I virtually see no For Sale By Owners in my market area.

Dec 15, 2024 06:47 AM
Thomas J. Nelson, REALTOR ® CRS,ABR,PSA,RCS-D, CFSP

Likewise Dorie Dillard Austin TX - I'm already hard at work on my 2025 and I have not seen a FSBO in my area in over a decade! 🎄Season's Greetings, Merry Christmas🎅🏻 and much success to you in 2025! 🥂🍾

Dec 15, 2024 07:29 AM
Carol Williams
Although I'm retired, I love sharing my knowledge and learning from other real estate industry professionals. - Wenatchee, WA
Retired Agent / Broker / Prop. Mgr, Wenatchee, WA

This is a very interesting post, Thomas.
This sentence stood out:
People are drowning in information and starving for wisdom from their local REALTOR®.

Dec 15, 2024 07:03 AM
Carol Williams

Thomas J. Nelson, REALTOR ® CRS,ABR,PSA,RCS-D, ePRO 
It reminds me of my old tagline during my active real estate days:
Information is FREE. Knowledge, Experience, & Integrity Are Priceless.

Dec 15, 2024 07:48 AM
Thomas J. Nelson, REALTOR ® CRS,ABR,PSA,RCS-D, CFSP

That's a good one too!

Dec 15, 2024 07:48 AM
Thomas J. Nelson, REALTOR ® CRS,ABR,PSA,RCS-D, CFSP

Thank you Carol Williams - that is a Buffini & Companyism from many years ago when technology started making people think that had all our info so why do they need us? Well, I can Youtube how to perform open heart surgery but it doesn't mean I should try it.😉 🎄Merry Christmas, Happy Holidays🎅🏻 and much success to you in 2025! 🥂🍾 

Dec 15, 2024 07:31 AM
Will Hamm
Hamm Homes - Aurora, CO
"Where There's a Will, There's a Way!"

Hello Thomas and thank you for Brian bold prediction and what has happen in the last year.  Very interesting

 

Dec 15, 2024 09:10 AM
Gwen Fowler SC Lakes & Mountains 864-710-4518
Gwen Fowler Real Estate, Inc - Walhalla, SC
Gwen Fowler Real Estate, Inc.

Stability, as we have known it, is gone.  You cannot buy a house like the home sellers do on HGTV; TV is fantasy and expensive to produce regularly. The day of deserving a home is gone.  Those are my predictions.

Dec 15, 2024 09:51 AM
Thomas J. Nelson, REALTOR ® CRS,ABR,PSA,RCS-D, CFSP

Luckily, I've never known stability in real estate, it's been a rollercoaster ride for the last 26 years of my career.

Dec 16, 2024 07:16 AM
Dr. Paula McDonald
Beam & Branch Realty - Granbury, TX
Granbury, TX 936-203-0279

I love this post, especially your last statement: The only reason real estate appears easy is that you're either watching a professional at work or being misled by a TV show. There’s no app for what we do, and there are no shortcuts. It's time to roll up your sleeves and get to work—or step aside!  

Dec 15, 2024 12:26 PM
Laura Cerrano
Feng Shui Manhattan Long Island - Locust Valley, NY
Certified Feng Shui Expert, Speaker & Researcher

Seems a little unpredictable but might be a little bit interesting. I suppose we’vejust have to do the best we can and work with what we have like always and make the world the best it can be of course.

Dec 15, 2024 10:27 PM
Andrew Mooers | 207.532.6573
MOOERS REALTY - Houlton, ME
Northern Maine Real Estate-Aroostook County Broker

To succeed in real estate, focus on understanding and leveraging your local market. It’s the difference between chasing broad trends and delivering tailored, actionable hyper local results Thomas J. Nelson, REALTOR ® CRS,ABR,PSA,RCS-D, ePRO.

Dec 16, 2024 04:19 AM
Thomas J. Nelson, REALTOR ® CRS,ABR,PSA,RCS-D, CFSP

Yes indeed, that's why I'm a hyper-local marketer!

Dec 16, 2024 07:15 AM
Jeffrey DiMuria 321.223.6253 Waves Realty
Waves Realty - Melbourne, FL
Florida Space Coast Homes

These are not positive trends, but I do think they will change if interest rates lower.

Dec 16, 2024 05:51 AM
Thomas J. Nelson, REALTOR ® CRS,ABR,PSA,RCS-D, CFSP

In 2024 - indeed! I actually do see 2025 as trending positive, lot's of hope for these predicted changes with facts to back the forecasting

Dec 16, 2024 07:14 AM
Mike McCann Nebraska Land Broker
Mike McCann - Broker, Mach1 Realty Farm & Commercial Land Broker-Auctioneer Serving Nebraska - Kearney, NE
Farm & Commercial Property For Sale 308-627-3700

The 300,000 less members in NAR is no surprise to me. What is the annual cost for an agent in your area to belong to NAR, state, and local association, plus MLs dues, lockbox fees & designations such as CRS, etc?  

Dec 16, 2024 06:35 AM
Thomas J. Nelson, REALTOR ® CRS,ABR,PSA,RCS-D, CFSP

Yep those costs vary but no less than $3,500/year base cost (conservatively) for those few fees...thousands more if you plan to market and train yourself.

Dec 17, 2024 07:17 AM
Anna "Banana" Kruchten
Retired Broker/Owner - Phoenix, AZ
602-380-4886

Hi Thomas it doesn't surprise me one tiny about the 300K less members.  I saw that coming for sure.  And I kind of have to smile as it seems to me right now (once again) what goes around, comes around as I've seen so much over 36 years in the biz.  Where there's a will, there's a way!!  Those of us who believed that made it happen, those that didn't bow out when the going is 'challenging'.  

And oe a side personal note, I can't tell you how happy our good friends are that their 30 year old finally moved out of the nest after coming back home 4 years ago.  Happy Campers!!

Dec 16, 2024 11:21 AM
Thomas J. Nelson, REALTOR ® CRS,ABR,PSA,RCS-D, CFSP

Yes the amount of adult kids returning home is mind-blowing to me. I have lived on my own since I was 16 years old, and couldn't imagine living with my Mom ever again in those days...or ever.

Dec 17, 2024 07:16 AM
Anna "Banana" Kruchten

I can't imagine it either Thomas!  After college (well actually while going to college) I was on my own.

Dec 17, 2024 10:57 AM
Bob "RealMan" Timm
Ward County Notary Services - Minot, ND
Owner of Ward Co Notary Services retired RE Broker

I find all those numbers interesting Thomas J. Nelson, REALTOR ® CRS,ABR,PSA,RCS-D, ePRO especially agents who did NOT sell a house last year. I do wonder how many just purchased homes to flip using their license?

Dec 16, 2024 01:46 PM
Thomas J. Nelson, REALTOR ® CRS,ABR,PSA,RCS-D, CFSP

Part-timers, flippers and already quit agents make up those numbers I'm sure.

Dec 16, 2024 08:27 PM
Debra Leisek
Bay Realty,Inc Homer Alaska - Homer, AK

Love this post!! I think 2025 is going to be Great Again in Alaska. Things have picked up and people are more optimistic about the future right now. 

You had a lot of good information and I bookmarked it to share with my office.

I have to say this quote made me smile....

For Sale By Owners dropped to an all-time low of 6% from a more traditional 11% annually. People are drowning in information and starving for wisdom from their local REALTOR®.

Dec 17, 2024 12:37 AM
Thomas J. Nelson, REALTOR ® CRS,ABR,PSA,RCS-D, CFSP

Ah thank you Debra Leisek and yes do share the info. I agree, there is a palpable feeling of optimism supported by little shifts I'm seeing in our December market that indicate a big 2025! We'll go to work to make it that way regardless! 

Dec 17, 2024 07:14 AM
Wayne Martin
Wayne M Martin - Oswego, IL
Real Estate Broker - Retired

Good morning Thomas. Interesting numbers for sure. The 47% of agents who did not sell a home last year must be enjoying their hobby because for them it is not a business. Enjoy your day.

Dec 17, 2024 05:07 AM
Thomas J. Nelson, REALTOR ® CRS,ABR,PSA,RCS-D, CFSP

Agreed Wayne Martin and hopefully they join the 300,000 exiting this coming year.

Dec 17, 2024 07:12 AM
Doug Rogers
RE/MAX Coastal Properties - Destin, FL
Your Real Estate Resource!

I always look forward to his forecast. The average age of the fist time buyer was eye opening! 

Dec 17, 2024 06:50 AM
Thomas J. Nelson, REALTOR ® CRS,ABR,PSA,RCS-D, CFSP

YES! Big shifts in the stats in 2024. Speaks of a very different market we had after an 10-11 year run up.

Dec 17, 2024 07:12 AM
Doug Dawes
Keller Williams Evolution - 447 Boston Street, Suite #5, Topsfield, MA - Topsfield, MA
Your Personal Realtor®

Good Morning Thomas J. Nelson, REALTOR ® CRS,ABR,PSA,RCS-D, ePRO 

Wow, what an information-packed post! People have been spoiled by lower rate manipulation so the predicted rate range you posted is more like "normal" (which is just a setting on your dryer) I was taken by surprise by the average of sellers and 1st time buyers.

Dec 17, 2024 08:18 AM
John Juarez
The Medford Real Estate Team - Fremont, CA
ePRO, SRES, GRI, PMN

Great post, Thomas J. Nelson, REALTOR ® CRS,ABR,PSA,RCS-D, ePRO 

And...I think Brian's predictions are excellent, also.

Dec 17, 2024 01:55 PM
Inna Ivchenko
Barcode Properties - Encino, CA
Realtor® • GRI • HAFA • PSC • Short Sale • Probate

I'm curious where this data is coming from. Is it national by NAR? 

The buyer's age statistic is interesting. 

Dec 21, 2024 01:08 AM
Thomas J. Nelson, REALTOR ® CRS,ABR,PSA,RCS-D, CFSP

Ultimately from Brian Buffini, who uses Multiple sources, NAR, The Census, Zillow, Redfin, other CEO's, etc., multiple sources...and all the graphics are credited. 

Dec 21, 2024 04:15 PM
Adam Feinberg
Elegran - Manhattan, NY
NYC Condo, Co-op, and Townhouse Advisor

Very interesting stats. I love data. I have a pitch coming up that required me to dig deep into the data which revealed some interesting trends for townhouses in my neighborhood that I long suspected but didn't know for sure - now confirmed. 

Going back to your post:

1. FSBO- my firm subscribes to a FSBO/new construction list distributed every Saturday. I have noticed that in Manhattan that the number of FSBO's has decreased as well. 

2. Memberships- Things work a bit differently in Manhattan. Unless you work outside of the city- you aren't typically an NAR member. We don't have an MLS in the city. We are a member firm of REBNY (Real Estate Board of NY) - which is sort of our own local solution to NAR type of membership. I have to renew in the next week- but it's a sub $500/year membership fee- and few other fees are applicable. Since it's regular practice here for listing agents to do all showings- lockboxes don't have a large presence (more so in rental buildings, and sometimes a listing broker might leave keys with the doorman) - so we don't have those kinds of fees either. It's much cheaper to become an agent here...but obviously the cost of living is much higher.

3. Fed Funds Rate- As of right now, I don't see as many rate cuts as we were projecting over the summer. Seems that most traders agree with me. For those interested in the odds/size of rate cuts- you can see the trader consensus at CME's Fedwatch page (CME is the leading derivatives exchange in the nation, and a former employer of mine). https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html - click on the probabilities button on the left to see current projections.    

Dec 24, 2024 03:39 PM