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Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics

By
Real Estate Agent with Coldwell Banker Select

So in looking at how Tulsa real estate did in 2024, I came across the following:

According to Google Generative AI, which quoted Capital Homes, the median home price is $289,000 which is a year over year increase of 5.1%.

According to Realtor.com, in November 2024 the average home in Tulsa is $260,000, a decrease of 6.8%.

Zillow says the median home price in Tulsa is a mere $200,029 (a very precise number) up 4.7%.

Redfin says the average home in Tulsa is $225,000 a 2.8% decrease as of Oct 24th.

I have quite a selection of statistics to pick from depending on what tale I want to tell!

Nowadays with AI and narratives, it's very important to look behind the curtain to see how the data is derived. For instance does the average include the ten million dollar Southern Hills or Wenmoor home? Or was it removed as it's an outlier? With builders building larger homes, the average may not reflect appreciation but the fact that more larger homes are changing hands. Is Tulsa the city of Tulsa, or is the data including Metro Tulsa which includes the surrounding suburbs. Is the data an average of the homes that sold during the year, or all homes?

Another one that is amusing/confusing is the US housing shortage. The Brookings Institute points out that varying estimates put the shortage between 1.5 million (NAHB) to 5.5 million (Realtor.com). Isn't that like saying I'm between 5'8 and 6'2?

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Comments(4)

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Peter Tamura
Coldwell Banker Select - Tulsa, OK
BANNOCHIE TEAM

Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics-popularized by Mark Twain and supposedly originally uttered by British Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli.

Dec 16, 2024 12:50 PM
Lauren Williams, CPO,CVOP
Casual Uncluttering LLC - Woodinville, WA
Professional Organizer: Puget Sound homes

Peter Tamura A valuable lesson about ANYTHING involving facts and/or fiction and opinions! Lauren

Dec 16, 2024 07:09 PM
Peter Tamura

Lauren,

Thanks for your comment. We read Marie Kondo, the Lifechanging Magic of Tidying Up in my book club! My office still needs uncluttering however. That must be a very interesting business. With AI, you can easily find studies to fit the narrative you already believe, it's pernicious. Carl Sagan has a thing that he called, The BS Detection Kit, I think everybody needs to read it.

Dec 17, 2024 06:07 AM
Kat Palmiotti
eXp Commercial, Referral Divison - Kalispell, MT
Helping your Montana dreams take root

Oh yes, we need to know where the data came and what it really means. That's why when it comes to real estate, it's best if we pull our own figures!

Dec 17, 2024 05:47 AM
Peter Tamura
Coldwell Banker Select - Tulsa, OK
BANNOCHIE TEAM

That would require work!

Good morning Kat, thanks for your comment. No, I completely agree, it's good to know exactly what you are looking at. I was just watching Ken McElroy, there are 1.2 Trillion in Commercial loans needing refinancing at higher rates this year and next year. There are some good opportunities coming up?

 

 

Dec 17, 2024 06:40 AM